WHY BTC LOW OF $16K-18K EOY 2022 AND NEXT TOP OF $205K Q4 2025
Pulled a fib ext from the low of bear market Jan 2015 up to the top of cycle in Dec 2017. As you can see it made a full retrace down to the .236 before making its climb back up finding big resistance at the .618 and testing back to the .382 and ultimately the .236 again due to the covid crash in 2020. It eventually made the climb up the extension finding strong resistance/support at 1.618 in the low-mid 30K region and then upward to the cycle top of 64K at the 3.272 fib level. As you can see the VWAP was placed at the cycle low of $196 and was perfectly tested in Dec 2018marking the low of the upcoming cycle.
The next fib ext was pulled from the low of the bear market Dec 2018 up to the top of the cycle Apr 2021. I used the bear low of $3148 and the cycle top of 64.8K, hence the overlapping fib extensions. This leads me to believe that based on a full retrace BTC should bottom in the green box area around the 16K-18K level at the .236 fib and the VWAP which is right on track for green box target and was placed at the $3150 bear market lows. An additional piece of confluence at this area is the CME gap @ 18.5K and the meeting of the parabola with the descending trendline coming from the peak.
Based on this playing out we should see a peak in the next cycle at the 3.272 fib ext at the price of 205K, conservatively 195K-ish due to the psychological 200k barrier.
I dont see BTC breaking that descending trendline coming down from the
64K top until late 2022 and then bottoming out sometime in the spring of 2023. You cant see the 3.272 level due to me zooming in to see more details in the PA that is already occured but if you pull it yourself you'll see it.
Posting this mostly to see how this ages however if it is correct and plays out we are able to look forward to the next cycle for targets of the top and bottom. The prices seem crazy but it would be ball park bottom of 60K-70K with a top of approx 6150K-630K-ish but that is pure crystal ball stuff its so far away but it does line up to the price level the low of $60-70k and parabola and the halvening in 2028.
My only to buy zones are
65K or 16K-20K....whichever happens first!!
Leave comments if you have any.
The next fib ext was pulled from the low of the bear market Dec 2018 up to the top of the cycle Apr 2021. I used the bear low of $3148 and the cycle top of 64.8K, hence the overlapping fib extensions. This leads me to believe that based on a full retrace BTC should bottom in the green box area around the 16K-18K level at the .236 fib and the VWAP which is right on track for green box target and was placed at the $3150 bear market lows. An additional piece of confluence at this area is the CME gap @ 18.5K and the meeting of the parabola with the descending trendline coming from the peak.
Based on this playing out we should see a peak in the next cycle at the 3.272 fib ext at the price of 205K, conservatively 195K-ish due to the psychological 200k barrier.
I dont see BTC breaking that descending trendline coming down from the
64K top until late 2022 and then bottoming out sometime in the spring of 2023. You cant see the 3.272 level due to me zooming in to see more details in the PA that is already occured but if you pull it yourself you'll see it.Posting this mostly to see how this ages however if it is correct and plays out we are able to look forward to the next cycle for targets of the top and bottom. The prices seem crazy but it would be ball park bottom of 60K-70K with a top of approx 6150K-630K-ish but that is pure crystal ball stuff its so far away but it does line up to the price level the low of $60-70k and parabola and the halvening in 2028.
My only to buy zones are
65K or 16K-20K....whichever happens first!!Leave comments if you have any.
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