Bitcoin Model: Long Term Diminishing Returns
Theory:
Bitcoins cycles will approach perfection over time (4.00 years peak to peak and 4.00 years bottom to bottom). Growth rate (peak to peak) and decline rate (bottom to bottom) will both half each subsequent cycle.
Peak to Peak Multipliers:
June 2011 ($31.97) to November 2013 ($1,175.54): 36.77
November 2013 ($1,175.54) to December 2017 ($19,767.91): 16.82 (a decrease in growth rate of 54.25%)
December 2017 ($19,767.91) to December 2021??: 8.41 (a decrease in growth rate of 50%)
Bottom to Bottom Multipliers
November 2011 ($2.01) to January 2015 ($163.83): 81.51
January 2015 ($163.83) to December 2018 ($3,153.47): 19.25
December 2018 ($3,153.47) to December 2022??: 9.62 (a decrease in growth rate of 50%)
Peak to Peak Time:
June 2011 to November 2013: 2.48 years
November 2013 to December 2017: 4.05 years
December 2017 to December 2021??: 4 years (cycle perfection)
Bottom to Bottom Time
November 2011 to January 2015: 3.16 years
January 2015 to December 2018: 3.92 years
December 2018 to December 2022??: 4 years (cycle perfection)
Expected Tops:
December 2021: 166.2k
December 2025: 698.7k
December 2029: 1.47MM
December 2033: 1.54MM
Expected Bottoms:
December 2022: 30.3k
December 2026: 146.0k
December 2030: 351.4k
December 2034: 422.7k
This is a very simplistic model that doesn't incorporate the devaluation of the USD and other global currencies.
Bitcoins cycles will approach perfection over time (4.00 years peak to peak and 4.00 years bottom to bottom). Growth rate (peak to peak) and decline rate (bottom to bottom) will both half each subsequent cycle.
Peak to Peak Multipliers:
June 2011 ($31.97) to November 2013 ($1,175.54): 36.77
November 2013 ($1,175.54) to December 2017 ($19,767.91): 16.82 (a decrease in growth rate of 54.25%)
December 2017 ($19,767.91) to December 2021??: 8.41 (a decrease in growth rate of 50%)
Bottom to Bottom Multipliers
November 2011 ($2.01) to January 2015 ($163.83): 81.51
January 2015 ($163.83) to December 2018 ($3,153.47): 19.25
December 2018 ($3,153.47) to December 2022??: 9.62 (a decrease in growth rate of 50%)
Peak to Peak Time:
June 2011 to November 2013: 2.48 years
November 2013 to December 2017: 4.05 years
December 2017 to December 2021??: 4 years (cycle perfection)
Bottom to Bottom Time
November 2011 to January 2015: 3.16 years
January 2015 to December 2018: 3.92 years
December 2018 to December 2022??: 4 years (cycle perfection)
Expected Tops:
December 2021: 166.2k
December 2025: 698.7k
December 2029: 1.47MM
December 2033: 1.54MM
Expected Bottoms:
December 2022: 30.3k
December 2026: 146.0k
December 2030: 351.4k
December 2034: 422.7k
This is a very simplistic model that doesn't incorporate the devaluation of the USD and other global currencies.
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