Fundamentals/TA for a prolonged Bearmarket
Updated
Hello, I think Bitcoin cant grow with the pace we saw in the last decade and a prolonged Beartrend wouldnt surprise me (with likely no recovery).
Bitcoins Marketcap reached 1.000.000.000$+ (1 Trillion) during the last Bullmarket.
With such a marketcap it is in the same league as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla marketcap wise (just for you to get a sense of this number).
The huge difference is everybody is using the product of these Companys regulary. Bitcoin is nowhere nearly used as regulary.
Most people own Bitcoin to make Money instead for "decentral money", which is not the kind of adoption people hoped for as its not sustainable.
Nearly noone wants to buy stuff with Bitcoin in Shops as most are speculating. It is a long way for Btc adoption to reasonable be a 1 Trillion mcap Asset.
- This is a Zero Sum Game, this means for every dollar which one cashes out someone will loose 1$.
More experienced Crypto Traders and Exchanges are taking money out of the newbies who dont really have a clue about the market.
- Bitcoin cant scale and Lightning has "0%" adoption since its implemention years ago.
10$+ transactioncosts are far from competitive against other payment services.
- Insane ammount of Scams in the Crypto Industry.
Its a whole subindustry to create a shitcoin ponzi and spam social media with it. People are having Telegram/Reddit groups for coordinated social media spam/ad´s.
This creates synthetic Hype to get people to buy into Ponzi shitcoins. (-inu coins for example)
This is not a small side phenomenon, as some people play it down. Just look under Elon Musk´s twitter for example.
Even big Coins like Luna were blatant Ponzischemes and it likely wont stop here (Celsius and other currently blowing up)
- Public/Media opinion could change when all these ponzis collabse and that would be reasoned in my view.
- Bitcoin is eating enormous ammount of energy and that a absolute no go in a climate crisis for what is mostly speculation
Im not saying dont buy crypto, you do you, but in case this turns out as Bubble (as i think it likely does) i want to point out that you can loose 99% of your money and you should invest what you can afford to loose.
If Bitcoin turn out as Bubble we could go as low as 1300 USD (equals 30B marketcap still), i also marked what i think are other important Support Zones until it reached that level.
Current resistance seems 25-30k range (red)
Dyor and please leave a like.
Bitcoins Marketcap reached 1.000.000.000$+ (1 Trillion) during the last Bullmarket.
With such a marketcap it is in the same league as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla marketcap wise (just for you to get a sense of this number).
The huge difference is everybody is using the product of these Companys regulary. Bitcoin is nowhere nearly used as regulary.
Most people own Bitcoin to make Money instead for "decentral money", which is not the kind of adoption people hoped for as its not sustainable.
Nearly noone wants to buy stuff with Bitcoin in Shops as most are speculating. It is a long way for Btc adoption to reasonable be a 1 Trillion mcap Asset.
- This is a Zero Sum Game, this means for every dollar which one cashes out someone will loose 1$.
More experienced Crypto Traders and Exchanges are taking money out of the newbies who dont really have a clue about the market.
- Bitcoin cant scale and Lightning has "0%" adoption since its implemention years ago.
10$+ transactioncosts are far from competitive against other payment services.
- Insane ammount of Scams in the Crypto Industry.
Its a whole subindustry to create a shitcoin ponzi and spam social media with it. People are having Telegram/Reddit groups for coordinated social media spam/ad´s.
This creates synthetic Hype to get people to buy into Ponzi shitcoins. (-inu coins for example)
This is not a small side phenomenon, as some people play it down. Just look under Elon Musk´s twitter for example.
Even big Coins like Luna were blatant Ponzischemes and it likely wont stop here (Celsius and other currently blowing up)
- Public/Media opinion could change when all these ponzis collabse and that would be reasoned in my view.
- Bitcoin is eating enormous ammount of energy and that a absolute no go in a climate crisis for what is mostly speculation
Im not saying dont buy crypto, you do you, but in case this turns out as Bubble (as i think it likely does) i want to point out that you can loose 99% of your money and you should invest what you can afford to loose.
If Bitcoin turn out as Bubble we could go as low as 1300 USD (equals 30B marketcap still), i also marked what i think are other important Support Zones until it reached that level.
Current resistance seems 25-30k range (red)
Dyor and please leave a like.
Note
If 10k range holds we could see another Bullrun with new ATH, but the fundamentals from above keep being bad so im not counting on that outcome.
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