BITCOIN: Two most likely scenarios

Updated
In my opinion, there are two most likely scenarios of the incoming bullrun.

Both scenarios reach around $ 140,000. This is calculated from past cycles.

SCENARIO 1
- It takes the same time as the previous cycle.
- Correlation with halving.
- Bitcoin currently looks like the beginning of bullrun.
SCENARIO 2
- It takes more time. This is a calculation based on previous cycles. Each cycle lasts longer than the previous one.
- It doesn't correlate with halving.
- Correlates with NVT indicator

Personally, I would like the scenario number two. However, I want to be objective. I see the situation fifty-fifty. In any case, I think that we will soon look back at 5K, where it will be a great opportunity to invest. Don't be overwhelmed with emotions, set your take profit around $ 130,000 and enjoy your 26x initial investment.

What scenario do you think is likely? ;)
Note
update
update: BITCOIN: Two most likely scenarios
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