Bitcoin Liquid IndexUpdated BTC - 21 Weekly EMA UPDATE
Hello everyone
I checked some of the previous weekly 21 ema crosses.
I circled the bear crosses in red and the bull one in green.
Even though we are in a really important bearish state right now, there is still a probability we are falling back to a bear market.
It is not likely for BTC to cross below 21 weekly ema in a BULL market but we can see that there can be small exceptions considering the past. Most of you know that 21 weekly moving average is one of the most important indicators for most of the traders. Bitcoin uses 21 weekly moving average as a support all the time when it is in a bull market. So, to continue a bull market we have to recover ASAP, the faster it is, the more bullish it is in mid term.
Hitting back to the 21 ema in a couple of days can signal a bullish turn. If we stay at the current prices for a couple of weeks, it will mean that we can be falling back to a bear market - though I think it did not ended, it was a super manipulated parabolic 13k run -.
To compare the percentage of falls I checked how far we can retrace before a huge bounce - if we are back to the bear - or a reversal - if we are in a bull.
A bear market crash can bring us back to 4-5 k levels before a nice deadcat bounce.
A bull market reversal can happen at 6-7 k levels.
Going below 6k is really risky for this so called Bull Season
Take care everyone.
I believe and wish that I will turn bullish in 2020. But this year I do not have too much hope.
I checked some of the previous weekly 21 ema crosses.
I circled the bear crosses in red and the bull one in green.
Even though we are in a really important bearish state right now, there is still a probability we are falling back to a bear market.
It is not likely for BTC to cross below 21 weekly ema in a BULL market but we can see that there can be small exceptions considering the past. Most of you know that 21 weekly moving average is one of the most important indicators for most of the traders. Bitcoin uses 21 weekly moving average as a support all the time when it is in a bull market. So, to continue a bull market we have to recover ASAP, the faster it is, the more bullish it is in mid term.
Hitting back to the 21 ema in a couple of days can signal a bullish turn. If we stay at the current prices for a couple of weeks, it will mean that we can be falling back to a bear market - though I think it did not ended, it was a super manipulated parabolic 13k run -.
To compare the percentage of falls I checked how far we can retrace before a huge bounce - if we are back to the bear - or a reversal - if we are in a bull.
A bear market crash can bring us back to 4-5 k levels before a nice deadcat bounce.
A bull market reversal can happen at 6-7 k levels.
Going below 6k is really risky for this so called Bull Season
Take care everyone.
I believe and wish that I will turn bullish in 2020. But this year I do not have too much hope.
Note
Lets make the same comparison for Daily 100 EMA CrossesNote
Here is the 2011 - 2012 years, Feb 2012 the fall below 100 ema happened fast and it recovered in a couple of days, even though it stayed below 100 for a while it touched it and hanged around it. So there can be exceptions in 100 ema too BUT the recovery should be fast and the fall should only stay as a correction not crash!Note
Here is 2015 chart where the bear happens, bearish crosses are crashes and huge falls, however the cross just before the 2017 bull run happened at %24 correction. S
Note
So again we can have the same conclusion as the 21 Weekly emaNote
Last but not least, the current bear crossesTrade closed: target reached
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.