BTC (Prj.Y19.P5.E7).Bearish.Macro.Indicators
The purpose of this post is to highlight a few key points as to why we are not close to a turn around, but still bearish.
Key points:
1) Looking at the WEEKLY chart, we have the RSI history and on the chart, highlighted phases of the cycles with the tinted upper and lower segments of the RSI separated around 53.75% RSI
One can note that when the RSI drops below this level, we see a down trend to an eventual almost oversold level near the 30% RSI level.
2) On this chart, I'm using HULL MA to indicate areas that correspond to the RSI bearish transitions.
**To me, this HULL MA is a useful tool as well (if you want he metric, ask for it in the below commentary section. I'm thinking about publishing this HULL MA script as well, when I think I have fine tuned it).**
As one can note on the chart, the Orange and Blue HULL MA cross over, closely aligning\corresponds to the RSI phase transitions from bullish to bearish to bullish.
If one is to use the HULL MA which is much more responsive the SMA or EMA, one can observe a few things. For example:
> The PURPLE MA, which is a longer MA measure, indicates right now that we are about to turn BEARISH as per the last 2 cycles
> The crossover of the ORANGE and PURPLE MA is equivalent to the death cross on the WEEKLY chart.
> However the more useful and quicker moving MA is the BLUE and ORANGE MA, which could be better used for Daily\weekly (larger) swing trading.
3) As for the green section, the middle parts in the down trend, one can see the % drop that has occurred over the last 2 cycles. Are we to see another similar event?
In 2014/2015, we saw it drop 75%
In 2018/2019, we saw it drop 66%
In 2019/2020, are we to see it drop 50 to 55% or so?
*************************************************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION > To monitor the WEEKLY chart's RSI and HULL MA cross over (the main points for this post)
*************************************************************************************************************************
Previous posts < for Bearish argument > area's to monitor
Key points:
1) Looking at the WEEKLY chart, we have the RSI history and on the chart, highlighted phases of the cycles with the tinted upper and lower segments of the RSI separated around 53.75% RSI
One can note that when the RSI drops below this level, we see a down trend to an eventual almost oversold level near the 30% RSI level.
2) On this chart, I'm using HULL MA to indicate areas that correspond to the RSI bearish transitions.
**To me, this HULL MA is a useful tool as well (if you want he metric, ask for it in the below commentary section. I'm thinking about publishing this HULL MA script as well, when I think I have fine tuned it).**
As one can note on the chart, the Orange and Blue HULL MA cross over, closely aligning\corresponds to the RSI phase transitions from bullish to bearish to bullish.
If one is to use the HULL MA which is much more responsive the SMA or EMA, one can observe a few things. For example:
> The PURPLE MA, which is a longer MA measure, indicates right now that we are about to turn BEARISH as per the last 2 cycles
> The crossover of the ORANGE and PURPLE MA is equivalent to the death cross on the WEEKLY chart.
> However the more useful and quicker moving MA is the BLUE and ORANGE MA, which could be better used for Daily\weekly (larger) swing trading.
3) As for the green section, the middle parts in the down trend, one can see the % drop that has occurred over the last 2 cycles. Are we to see another similar event?
In 2014/2015, we saw it drop 75%
In 2018/2019, we saw it drop 66%
In 2019/2020, are we to see it drop 50 to 55% or so?
*************************************************************************************************************************
CONCLUSION > To monitor the WEEKLY chart's RSI and HULL MA cross over (the main points for this post)
*************************************************************************************************************************
Previous posts < for Bearish argument > area's to monitor
Discord: discord.com/invite/vb4hbP88vb (TradeToProspa)
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.