I would like to start this forecast with this Peter Lynch quote:
“In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”
It means, the best traders are never right all the time, they make losses too. Focus on getting more trades right than wrong and you’ll be considered successful.
Having said that, If you want to increase your chance of success you need to evaluate the market situation, individual sectors and industires; and then find the best stocks with the highest chance of appreciation to go long and highest chance of depreciation to go short!
I monitored Waren Buffet's porfolio and Berkshire performance for a year and compared it with Nasdaq 100 and find out a possible top in BRK.A could be an early sign of the end of Nasdaq 100 correction..!
BRK.A vs NDX:
(Some times there is value in a comparing Apple and Oranges)
In my Dec 16, 2021 analysis (Editor's Pick) I mentioned:
Based on the pattern in the charts and the past 2 days of high volatility in the market, the most probable scenario could be a complex correction and a shift from tech stocks to Banks, Energy, and Telecommunications. Please review the performance of these sectors in the past 3-4 weeks!
Now let's review the current situation:
Based on my current observation Value stocks started forming top patterns:
Berkshire owns all the aboe mentioned stocks except UNH!
Conclusion: I think there is a good chance we see shift from value stocks to Tech stocks once again in the next one or two weeks which could push them up around 5%!
Best, Moshkelgosha
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