We are in BTC season, not Alt Season
Updated
This is the BTC dominance chart (BTC.D), which shows the percentage of the crypto market cap which is BTC.
¿What does this chart tell us?
Note 1: when I say bearish or bullish it doesn't necessarily mean bullish on BTC.D, but rather that it's a bullish indicator.
Now lets get into the this juicy chart:
Elipses (similar to circle shape): they mark the following periods:
I highlighted the Alt Seasons which saw most gains since 2017. There are micro alt seasons like the one we had at end of Jully till end of August, but I didn't include those.
Note 2: I'm not a financial advisor; this is just my opinion. Don't just listen to an Explosive Cow and DYOR.
Target price: my mid term TP on BTC is 80k and long term TP is 100-130k at least, which I will explain why in another post, so stay tuned.
TLDR or Conclusion: I'm bullish on BTC on one hand and bullish on the BTC.D chart (meaning switching from some altcoins to BTC will be more profitable), which means I will be doing some DCA into BTC and sell some alts and buy BTC (each one should have their own plan). Between the Stochastic RSI, the 20 weekly-EMA, the MACD, the green elipses and the breakthrough above the downtrend resistance, there are enough positive indicators to consider BTC.D bullish, ergo, it will be more profitable in the mid term to switch from alts to BTC (I don't know about the long term, since some alts are better than others).
WARNING: seeing that this last rally of BTC saw 50% gains in just 15 days, I have a feeling there may be a pump in the altcoins since BTC just hit 60k and altcoins eventually follow BTC, and according to the on-chain data there is hundreds of millions being transferred from wallets to exchanges, meaning whales will maybe be selling and pushing the price down to 57k or maybe some Fibonacci retracement level or support channel forming wave 4 of the impulse wave of the Elliot waves that have formed since July 21st on the BTC pa. This is why, if you are an investor or a swing trader (I'm a bit of both), DCA can be a good option to mitigate volatility. This is just what I think may happen in the short term (and it's very hard to predict accurately the short term), so take it with a pinch of salt.
If you liked this post please hit like, and follow if you would want to see more of my ideas. I spent more time than I should have on this and I would apreciate any feedback. I could have been wrong somewhere.
¿What does this chart tell us?
- If BTC.D is bullish, BTC is outperforming alts. If BTC.D is bearish, alts are outperforming BTC.
- IMPORTANT: This chart on it's own doesn't tell you if BTC is bullish or bearish. If the price of BTC is going down and BTC.D is going up, it just means BTC is losing less percentage of its price comprares to alts.
Note 1: when I say bearish or bullish it doesn't necessarily mean bullish on BTC.D, but rather that it's a bullish indicator.
Now lets get into the this juicy chart:
- 20 weekly-EMA is a core support/resistance area. If there is a break above it on the weekly, that's bullish. We are currently above it on the weekly, but it needs to hold till Monday to get that weekly close
- We broke above the downwards trendline
- There is a double bottom forming. Break above 48.34% is bullish, with a tp of 56%. A rejection off the 48.34 level could initiate an altcoin rally which could possibly be small but strong
- The Stochastic RSI, which is a momentum indicator, has gone from oversold area (less than 20) to above 20, which is bullish.
- MACD (blue line) is above signal line (orange line) and it successfully retested the signal line which is even more bullish
Elipses (similar to circle shape): they mark the following periods:
- Red elipses: a period where there is divergence between BTC.D and BTC (BTC.D bullish and BTC bearish). These periods BTC is falling less than alts and if you look at on-chain metrics, on the last two red elipses whales were accumulating
- Green elipses: a period where there is a direct positive relation of BTC.D and BTC (BTC.D and BTC bullish) and Stochastic RSI is also bullish. The last two times this happened we saw massive gains for BTC, most recently last year in the green elipse starting the 31st of August. I don't know if we will see parabolic gains of 400%, but we will most likely have good gains. Also, a confirmation that the 20 weekly-EMA is now support would confirm the uptrend as it did with the last two green circles.
I highlighted the Alt Seasons which saw most gains since 2017. There are micro alt seasons like the one we had at end of Jully till end of August, but I didn't include those.
Note 2: I'm not a financial advisor; this is just my opinion. Don't just listen to an Explosive Cow and DYOR.
Target price: my mid term TP on BTC is 80k and long term TP is 100-130k at least, which I will explain why in another post, so stay tuned.
TLDR or Conclusion: I'm bullish on BTC on one hand and bullish on the BTC.D chart (meaning switching from some altcoins to BTC will be more profitable), which means I will be doing some DCA into BTC and sell some alts and buy BTC (each one should have their own plan). Between the Stochastic RSI, the 20 weekly-EMA, the MACD, the green elipses and the breakthrough above the downtrend resistance, there are enough positive indicators to consider BTC.D bullish, ergo, it will be more profitable in the mid term to switch from alts to BTC (I don't know about the long term, since some alts are better than others).
WARNING: seeing that this last rally of BTC saw 50% gains in just 15 days, I have a feeling there may be a pump in the altcoins since BTC just hit 60k and altcoins eventually follow BTC, and according to the on-chain data there is hundreds of millions being transferred from wallets to exchanges, meaning whales will maybe be selling and pushing the price down to 57k or maybe some Fibonacci retracement level or support channel forming wave 4 of the impulse wave of the Elliot waves that have formed since July 21st on the BTC pa. This is why, if you are an investor or a swing trader (I'm a bit of both), DCA can be a good option to mitigate volatility. This is just what I think may happen in the short term (and it's very hard to predict accurately the short term), so take it with a pinch of salt.
If you liked this post please hit like, and follow if you would want to see more of my ideas. I spent more time than I should have on this and I would apreciate any feedback. I could have been wrong somewhere.
Note
I forgot to mention the crypto cycle everyone should know:Fiat -> BTC -> Large Caps -> Mid caps -> Low caps -> Fiat
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