Alt-Season = BTC.D going down, but liquidity is king.
Right now, I don’t believe we’ll see a true alt-season until the Fed starts QE.
At the last FOMC meeting, Powell confirmed that QT will continue, meaning there is no reason to expect QE soon.
For QE to return, something needs to break—whether in the stock market or the broader economy.
Right now:
- Stock indices are at all-time highs
- The economy remains resilient
But cracks could form later this year
Possible triggers for QE:
- A stock market correction
- A credit event (bank failures, debt crisis)
- A sudden economic downturn
Why QE Matters for Crypto
- QE (Quantitative Easing) = Fed buys assets → Lowers interest rates → Pumps risk assets.
- QT (Quantitative Tightening) = Fed sells assets → Raises interest rates → Drains liquidity.
Crypto thrives in QE environments—that’s why we had the last alt-season in 2021, during extreme money printing.
In the chart, BTC.D is overlaid with Total Fed Assets.
- When the Fed’s balance sheet expands (QE) → BTC.D drops → Alts pump.
- When the Fed’s balance sheet contracts (QT) → BTC.D rises → BTC dominance increases.
Bottom Line:
For altcoins to outperform, we likely need another QE cycle. Without it, liquidity remains tight, and BTC.D stays high.
What’s your take? Will QE return in 2024, or will the Fed hold the line?
Right now, I don’t believe we’ll see a true alt-season until the Fed starts QE.
At the last FOMC meeting, Powell confirmed that QT will continue, meaning there is no reason to expect QE soon.
For QE to return, something needs to break—whether in the stock market or the broader economy.
Right now:
- Stock indices are at all-time highs
- The economy remains resilient
But cracks could form later this year
Possible triggers for QE:
- A stock market correction
- A credit event (bank failures, debt crisis)
- A sudden economic downturn
Why QE Matters for Crypto
- QE (Quantitative Easing) = Fed buys assets → Lowers interest rates → Pumps risk assets.
- QT (Quantitative Tightening) = Fed sells assets → Raises interest rates → Drains liquidity.
Crypto thrives in QE environments—that’s why we had the last alt-season in 2021, during extreme money printing.
In the chart, BTC.D is overlaid with Total Fed Assets.
- When the Fed’s balance sheet expands (QE) → BTC.D drops → Alts pump.
- When the Fed’s balance sheet contracts (QT) → BTC.D rises → BTC dominance increases.
Bottom Line:
For altcoins to outperform, we likely need another QE cycle. Without it, liquidity remains tight, and BTC.D stays high.
What’s your take? Will QE return in 2024, or will the Fed hold the line?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.