Bullish on Gala: My Updated Perspective
When it comes to trading, my priority is always to protect my capital. If I have doubts, I don’t hesitate to step out of the market. As anyone in crypto knows, this space is notorious for wiping out gains quickly, and my focus is on preserving mine.
That said, today’s price action gave me the confirmation I needed to re-enter Gala and turn bullish on the altcoin market. Before diving into the factors that shifted my outlook, let’s revisit the concerns that initially kept me out:
Now, let’s break down how today’s developments allowed me to rationalize these concerns and form a bullish bias for Gala and altcoins. I’ll also share additional confluence factors at the end.
1. Bitcoin’s Bearish Outlook: Will It Drag Down Gala and Alts?
Today I posted a detailed analysis on 'BTC Dominance' (please check it out for more context), but here’s a summary: In 2021, Bitcoin experienced a similar scenario, leading to a 31% correction. My outlook on Bitcoin remains bearish in the short term, but today’s price action made me consider a key question: How did altcoins react when Bitcoin dropped 31% in 2021?
Interestingly, during that period, the total market cap of altcoins expanded. This makes sense because funds tend to flow out of Bitcoin into altcoins, explaining why alts can rally even as Bitcoin corrects. We saw a similar dynamic today when Bitcoin dropped to
92K with almost no impact on altcoins. This suggests a potential decoupling between BTC and ALTS, which reduces my concerns about Bitcoin dragging down the market.
2. Bitcoin Dominance: Does It Invalidate the 0.618 Fib Theory?
In November, Bitcoin dominance rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, much like it did in 2021, signaling the start of an alt season. Recently, however, dominance surged upward, leading to a temporary altcoin pullback. My concern was that if dominance surpassed 0.618, it would invalidate the theory.
Today, dominance took a sharp dive, which has significantly strengthened my confidence in the bullish case for altcoins. This price action supports the idea that we are indeed on the verge of an alt season.
3. High Stochastic RSI on the Weekly Chart: A Lingering Concern
To be fair, the stochastic RSI on the weekly chart remains elevated for most altcoins, with a bearish crossover. However, recent market movements have caused it to come down slightly. While this isn’t ideal this is my only lingering point. The monthly and daily charts show a bullish stochastic RSI, which offsets some of my concerns. Admittedly, this is the one area where I wish conditions were slightly more favorable, but it doesn’t outweigh the stronger bullish signals elsewhere.
For example, the Stochastic RSI is bearish on BTC Dominance which supports a Bullish Stochastic RSI on Gala.
Final Thoughts
With these concerns addressed—or at least rationalized—I feel more confident about re-entering the market. While no setup is ever perfect, today’s developments have reduced my hesitation and strengthened my bullish case for Gala and altcoins. Let’s see where this market takes us! 🚀
What Next
I will hold my trade for the entirety of Wave 3, for those that are not aware each wave consists of 5 impulses I won't be trading the swings. I will be however looking for the top of Wave 3 to exit but I can't imaging that will be for a few weeks yet.
Instead, I will monitor prices at key level's which are as follows -
1. Confirmation of Wave 3 when price breaks 0.066%
2. My first price target is between $0.11402 - $0.13126.
I will provide price updates at those points.
That said, today’s price action gave me the confirmation I needed to re-enter Gala and turn bullish on the altcoin market. Before diving into the factors that shifted my outlook, let’s revisit the concerns that initially kept me out:
- Bitcoin’s bearish outlook: I feared it could drag down Gala and other altcoins.
- Bitcoin dominance potentially invalidating my 0.618 Fibonacci theory.
- High stochastic RSI on the weekly chart with a bearish crossover.
Now, let’s break down how today’s developments allowed me to rationalize these concerns and form a bullish bias for Gala and altcoins. I’ll also share additional confluence factors at the end.
1. Bitcoin’s Bearish Outlook: Will It Drag Down Gala and Alts?
Today I posted a detailed analysis on 'BTC Dominance' (please check it out for more context), but here’s a summary: In 2021, Bitcoin experienced a similar scenario, leading to a 31% correction. My outlook on Bitcoin remains bearish in the short term, but today’s price action made me consider a key question: How did altcoins react when Bitcoin dropped 31% in 2021?
Interestingly, during that period, the total market cap of altcoins expanded. This makes sense because funds tend to flow out of Bitcoin into altcoins, explaining why alts can rally even as Bitcoin corrects. We saw a similar dynamic today when Bitcoin dropped to
92K with almost no impact on altcoins. This suggests a potential decoupling between BTC and ALTS, which reduces my concerns about Bitcoin dragging down the market.2. Bitcoin Dominance: Does It Invalidate the 0.618 Fib Theory?
In November, Bitcoin dominance rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, much like it did in 2021, signaling the start of an alt season. Recently, however, dominance surged upward, leading to a temporary altcoin pullback. My concern was that if dominance surpassed 0.618, it would invalidate the theory.
Today, dominance took a sharp dive, which has significantly strengthened my confidence in the bullish case for altcoins. This price action supports the idea that we are indeed on the verge of an alt season.
3. High Stochastic RSI on the Weekly Chart: A Lingering Concern
To be fair, the stochastic RSI on the weekly chart remains elevated for most altcoins, with a bearish crossover. However, recent market movements have caused it to come down slightly. While this isn’t ideal this is my only lingering point. The monthly and daily charts show a bullish stochastic RSI, which offsets some of my concerns. Admittedly, this is the one area where I wish conditions were slightly more favorable, but it doesn’t outweigh the stronger bullish signals elsewhere.
For example, the Stochastic RSI is bearish on BTC Dominance which supports a Bullish Stochastic RSI on Gala.
Final Thoughts
With these concerns addressed—or at least rationalized—I feel more confident about re-entering the market. While no setup is ever perfect, today’s developments have reduced my hesitation and strengthened my bullish case for Gala and altcoins. Let’s see where this market takes us! 🚀
What Next
I will hold my trade for the entirety of Wave 3, for those that are not aware each wave consists of 5 impulses I won't be trading the swings. I will be however looking for the top of Wave 3 to exit but I can't imaging that will be for a few weeks yet.
Instead, I will monitor prices at key level's which are as follows -
1. Confirmation of Wave 3 when price breaks 0.066%
2. My first price target is between $0.11402 - $0.13126.
I will provide price updates at those points.
Disclaimer
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