Bitcoin Dominance 5Y Trend Line
BTCD Trendline
It appears the BTC Dominance trendline is continuing its long term move lower. However, on a short term time frame, it does seem due for a bounce back up towards the trendline. I expect it to jump back up to the 55-65% zone in the near future.
So long as the global crypto market cap keeps going up, it's just a matter of time. People are just cycling through different alts. Eventually it finds its way back to BTC and the cycle starts again.
One noteworthy change each Supercycle is that the alts become more and more advanced each time. In 2013, the alts were quite honestly pathetic. LTC, Namecoin, Feathercoin, very early XRP. Bitcoin Dominance went from near 95% down to the high 80's.
Then 2017 came along and was the real "coming out" party for alts. ETH being the real breakthrough with smart contracts and ERC20 tokens, which led to the ICO Bubble. This one really had that 1999 tech bubble feel. People were making altcoins using copy paste technology, desperately trying to make up a use case. A lot of words, a lot of "ideas", very little execution. Tons of vaporcoins.
Now we have this Supercycle, where the alts are clearly seeing a lot more use cases, largely thanks to DeFi. Yield farming, collateralized loans, on-chain insurance, synthetic assets, futures and options, NFT's. All of this stuff is crowding the ETH network and opening doors for other projects to get real utility.
We are seeing that the multiple blockchains act like multiple highways. ETH is congested? People will head over to Binance Smart Chain, MATIC, even Tron. We are seeing why it's important to have multiple chains. There are enough transactions to go around at the moment. This could change if Ethereum really solves the scaling issue, but for the near future, it seems that other blockchains are going to capture increasing volume.
All that to say, it seems as time passes, more and more projects are solving real use cases, and thus we should expect Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) to ebb and flow, but generally trend downwards. The good news is, BTCD decreasing is often aligned with Global Crypto Cap increasing.
It appears the BTC Dominance trendline is continuing its long term move lower. However, on a short term time frame, it does seem due for a bounce back up towards the trendline. I expect it to jump back up to the 55-65% zone in the near future.
So long as the global crypto market cap keeps going up, it's just a matter of time. People are just cycling through different alts. Eventually it finds its way back to BTC and the cycle starts again.
One noteworthy change each Supercycle is that the alts become more and more advanced each time. In 2013, the alts were quite honestly pathetic. LTC, Namecoin, Feathercoin, very early XRP. Bitcoin Dominance went from near 95% down to the high 80's.
Then 2017 came along and was the real "coming out" party for alts. ETH being the real breakthrough with smart contracts and ERC20 tokens, which led to the ICO Bubble. This one really had that 1999 tech bubble feel. People were making altcoins using copy paste technology, desperately trying to make up a use case. A lot of words, a lot of "ideas", very little execution. Tons of vaporcoins.
Now we have this Supercycle, where the alts are clearly seeing a lot more use cases, largely thanks to DeFi. Yield farming, collateralized loans, on-chain insurance, synthetic assets, futures and options, NFT's. All of this stuff is crowding the ETH network and opening doors for other projects to get real utility.
We are seeing that the multiple blockchains act like multiple highways. ETH is congested? People will head over to Binance Smart Chain, MATIC, even Tron. We are seeing why it's important to have multiple chains. There are enough transactions to go around at the moment. This could change if Ethereum really solves the scaling issue, but for the near future, it seems that other blockchains are going to capture increasing volume.
All that to say, it seems as time passes, more and more projects are solving real use cases, and thus we should expect Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) to ebb and flow, but generally trend downwards. The good news is, BTCD decreasing is often aligned with Global Crypto Cap increasing.
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