Long Alts , Sell Btc ?
Altcoin season indicators have now crossed above 50 across several major platforms marking the highest levels since last December pointing to a potential shift in the market. ETH perpetual open interest (OI) has surged from below $18 billion to over $28 billion in just a week, signaling strong inflows. While retail traders are certainly joining the rally, it's increasingly evident that institutions are driving this cycle, fueled by evolving narratives and structural policy changes.
A major catalyst has been the recent signing of the GENIUS Act, which provides regulatory clarity for stablecoin issuance. This development has renewed institutional focus on ETH and other L1s like SOL, XRP, and ADAmnetworks that serve as key platforms for stablecoins. Corporate treasuries, in particular, appear to be accumulating these assets similarly to how BTC has been adopted by firms like Strategy and Metaplanet
Momentum could accelerate further if the SEC approves applications for staked spot ETH ETFs, potentially prompting institutions to shift capital from BTC ETFs to ETH for enhanced yield opportunities. Supporting this trend, spot ETH ETF inflows outpaced BTC’s for two days straight last week an indicator of growing institutional confidence, particularly from players like BlackRock, in ETH's long term value.
In derivatives, ETH options markets show bullish sentiment: risk reversals are skewed toward calls across all expiries. Large trades such as ETH-26SEP25-3400/3800 call spreads and ETH-26DEC25-3500/4500 spreads suggest strong optimism heading into Q4.
Meanwhile, BTC dominance has dropped from 64% to 60% over the past week, while ETH’s share of the market has climbed from 9.7% to 11.7%. If these shifts continue, we may already be in the early stages of a broader altcoin season.
We’ll keep monitoring key signals and keep you updated as they unfold
which alts you got under your radar ?
Altcoin season indicators have now crossed above 50 across several major platforms marking the highest levels since last December pointing to a potential shift in the market. ETH perpetual open interest (OI) has surged from below $18 billion to over $28 billion in just a week, signaling strong inflows. While retail traders are certainly joining the rally, it's increasingly evident that institutions are driving this cycle, fueled by evolving narratives and structural policy changes.
A major catalyst has been the recent signing of the GENIUS Act, which provides regulatory clarity for stablecoin issuance. This development has renewed institutional focus on ETH and other L1s like SOL, XRP, and ADAmnetworks that serve as key platforms for stablecoins. Corporate treasuries, in particular, appear to be accumulating these assets similarly to how BTC has been adopted by firms like Strategy and Metaplanet
Momentum could accelerate further if the SEC approves applications for staked spot ETH ETFs, potentially prompting institutions to shift capital from BTC ETFs to ETH for enhanced yield opportunities. Supporting this trend, spot ETH ETF inflows outpaced BTC’s for two days straight last week an indicator of growing institutional confidence, particularly from players like BlackRock, in ETH's long term value.
In derivatives, ETH options markets show bullish sentiment: risk reversals are skewed toward calls across all expiries. Large trades such as ETH-26SEP25-3400/3800 call spreads and ETH-26DEC25-3500/4500 spreads suggest strong optimism heading into Q4.
Meanwhile, BTC dominance has dropped from 64% to 60% over the past week, while ETH’s share of the market has climbed from 9.7% to 11.7%. If these shifts continue, we may already be in the early stages of a broader altcoin season.
We’ll keep monitoring key signals and keep you updated as they unfold
which alts you got under your radar ?
Trade closed: target reached
Bitcoin faced a third straight Friday selloff, briefly dipping to test the $112k support level. This move wiped out over $1 billion in leveraged long positions across the crypto market since Friday. The decline aligned with a broader risk-off tone in traditional markets, triggered by disappointing U.S. jobs data and a new wave of tariffs from Washington. As investors adjusted expectations around global economic growth and liquidity, both equities and crypto assets saw widespread losses.Altcoin bulls were dealt a blow. Hopes for an altseason faded as SOL plunged nearly 20% over the week and ETH dropped close to 10%. Even institutional demand couldn’t stop the slide , Friday saw the second-highest outflow from BTC spot ETFs and the fourth-largest from ETH, weakening the belief that ETFs could offer price support.
Should you be buying this dip?
Despite the correction, the broader bullish structure remains intact. July closed with Bitcoin’s highest monthly price ever, and this recent pullback seems more like a healthy correction than a sign of panic. Historically, such dips , especially when they flush out excessive leverage , have often paved the way for new accumulation phases.
On a macro level, the outlook remains favorable. Continued progress on regulatory clarity, growing stablecoin adoption, and institutional tokenization initiatives continue to bolster the long-term case for crypto.
Options market behavior supports a tactical bounce. Last night, traders showed strong interest in BTC 29AUG25 call flys at $118k/$124k/$126k, indicating expectations of a rebound and potential targeting of new highs. While short-term put demand is elevated, it hasn't reached extreme levels of fear, suggesting the market isn’t in full panic mode.
We maintain a cautiously optimistic stance. The $112k zone is critical and should be closely watched in light of ongoing macro pressures. Signs of recovery , such as renewed ETF inflows, falling implied volatility, and a reduction in options skew , would support the idea that institutional interest is returning.
Tonight’s ETF flow data may be key. A return of inflows and a calming in volatility would strengthen the argument that the current dip presents a buying opportunity.
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🟣MasterClass moonypto.com/masterclass
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
⚪ t.me/moonyptofarsi
🟢Signal moonypto.com/signal
🔵News t.me/moonypto
⚪ t.me/moonyptofarsi
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.