BTC.D Outlook Update
I received a request to update my BTC.D outlook, so here it is:
We crossed my green support line much sooner than expected, prompting me to update the simple line into a more detailed channel. While this might suggest we’ve broken the support, I still believe we’re in an uptrend overall.
I’m watching for a bounce off the 25% dotted line within the channel, which sits around 54% BTC dominance. From there, I anticipate a new push higher as BTC targets 150K or more in Q1. However, BTC.D going down doesn’t necessarily mean bad news. It simply reflects more liquidity moving into altcoins rather than BTC. Theoretically, BTC’s price could rise even as BTC.D declines. Looking at pairs like Others/BTC or charts like Total10, it’s clear that altcoins are poised to outperform BTC for now, which would naturally cause BTC.D to drop.
That said, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. As long as we see a reaction at 54% BTC.D and remain within this channel, we can stay confident in the market’s structure. It’s important to remain calm and avoid becoming so heavily invested that it clouds your judgment.
This cycle’s sentiment has been quite unusual. Many expected a left-translated cycle, with a BTC cycle top before November 2024. As we’ve seen, this wasn’t the case, and BTC continues to climb. Similarly, many now anticipate a top in January, February, or March. In my view, it’s unproductive to speculate too heavily or to cling too tightly to specific narratives.
Keep in mind that many influencers earn their living through social media, and bold predictions often gain traction. However, markets and history tend to rhyme, which is why the phrase “this time is different” is often a meme in trading circles.
Best regards,
God bless
We crossed my green support line much sooner than expected, prompting me to update the simple line into a more detailed channel. While this might suggest we’ve broken the support, I still believe we’re in an uptrend overall.
I’m watching for a bounce off the 25% dotted line within the channel, which sits around 54% BTC dominance. From there, I anticipate a new push higher as BTC targets 150K or more in Q1. However, BTC.D going down doesn’t necessarily mean bad news. It simply reflects more liquidity moving into altcoins rather than BTC. Theoretically, BTC’s price could rise even as BTC.D declines. Looking at pairs like Others/BTC or charts like Total10, it’s clear that altcoins are poised to outperform BTC for now, which would naturally cause BTC.D to drop.
That said, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. As long as we see a reaction at 54% BTC.D and remain within this channel, we can stay confident in the market’s structure. It’s important to remain calm and avoid becoming so heavily invested that it clouds your judgment.
This cycle’s sentiment has been quite unusual. Many expected a left-translated cycle, with a BTC cycle top before November 2024. As we’ve seen, this wasn’t the case, and BTC continues to climb. Similarly, many now anticipate a top in January, February, or March. In my view, it’s unproductive to speculate too heavily or to cling too tightly to specific narratives.
Keep in mind that many influencers earn their living through social media, and bold predictions often gain traction. However, markets and history tend to rhyme, which is why the phrase “this time is different” is often a meme in trading circles.
Best regards,
God bless
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