BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?
Updated
28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs.
However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price.
Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon.
Trades:
Trade 1
Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region.
Trade 2
Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry.
Trade 3
Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500
Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price.
Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon.
Trades:
Trade 1
Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region.
Trade 2
Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000
Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry.
Trade 3
Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500
Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
Note
Trade 1 stopped given liquidity being slowly removed. Trade 2 was active, but is now closed at 26.7k given lack of bull interest ~26k.
Traders who front runned the bottom ~25k may now be targeted for further dumping to 18k-20k by SEP. I'm not certain if they are crypto OGs or from tradFi.
I will update when trade 2 is active again, but it does not seem like a bear trap. Market conditions may change from now until the weekly close, Aug 21 to where it may be considered otherwise.
Trade 3 is cancelled, I was hoping the market would wick to said price as it'd be a good tap of liquidating shorts before plunging down at current prices. Instead,
I will likely open a short if we dont get bullish volume from now til the weekly close, to capitalize on BTC moving toward 20k. It will likely be opened ~ 28.3k, sl 29.5k, tp 26k,23.5k, 20k.
I'll say this Elon Musk perfectly timed when to sell BTC recently and after the 69k peak for max pain and uncertainty. Trading algos will need to adjust or else they'll get exploited.
Trade active
Flipping to an overall short...As noted before 28.3k was the likely position to ideally enter a short.
Given recent PA I'd argue 26.8k is another ideal entry for now. sl 29k and similar tp targets. I'd include 19k as well and recommend closing all shorts there.
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