Bitcoin - Balance Amidst FUD
Updated
Digital currencies are not something you should be fundamentally bullish on, because this current generation of "decentralized" tokens that are really centralized in the hands of a few co-opted developers and a number of Chinese Communist Party-linked miners and entities aren't intended to be kept.
What's intended is for a global system of Central Bank Digital Currencies to replace all existing national currencies, becoming the "One Ring." If you don't believe it, FedNow is already live and settling transactions instantly between US banks.
Another reason you should be bearish on crypto fundamentally is because it's a part of the CCP's shadow banking system used by the Triad and United Front Work Department to corrupt and bribe and fund foreign influence operations.
Xi Jinping is responsible for all of this if he fails to throw the CCP away and return to tradition.
And Bitcoin is also implicitly bloodied in the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Gong and its organ harvesting campaign conducted by now-dead former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toad faction.
Bitcoin won't be kept. If there are digital currencies in the future, it will be JP Morgan's proprietary Ethereum fork, which SWIFT itself has been piloting a layer on top of for what's coming in the future.
But since we're a ways away from that yet, there's a number of opportunities that still remain here.
I'm focusing on CME Futures because Binance and the spot exchanges don't matter. If you were around in '17 when CME/CBOE Futures launched you know everything changed literally the minute futes markets opened.
This declining trendline stuff is going to get taken out. It should get taken out pretty quick too, with CPI and FOMC pending on Tuesday and Wednesday.
And so with the dump on the news of "market makers extracting their liquidity" or whatever it was over the weekend and the Friday night dump that causes futures to re-open gapped down we have a setup.
The call is that the MM will raid the $25,000 psychological level, which takes out the June Low of the Month where long stops will be triggered.
This will take longs out of the game and prevent them from selling to buy orders around $29,000, which is where the big cowboys want to get short.
They want to get short because we're going back to $16,500, so everyone can capitulate for a few months, before the final coup de grace that has been arranged somewhere around $55,000.
So you want to keep a balanced perspective amidst this FUD surrounding Binance getting sued.
Tether won't be destroyed until Bitcoin is flirting with $50,000 again.
You get an 18%~ long opportunity to $29,000 with a 4.78 R/R if you regard the $24,000 gap to be poison, because after all these months, touching it again is probably a harbinger of doom.
And then you can use those profits to finance a stop loss for a short from $29,600~ all the way to the bottom and on a time frame that is probably two or three months at most.
What I really want to say to everyone who's been involved with crypto is this:
You need to wash your hands and practice social distancing from the Chinese Communist Party.
You need to quit the Party and make up for the bad things you've done to help that regime and its persecution of the entire human race continue all these years.
If you don't, it's not just your bank accounts that will suffer "cascading liquidation."
What's intended is for a global system of Central Bank Digital Currencies to replace all existing national currencies, becoming the "One Ring." If you don't believe it, FedNow is already live and settling transactions instantly between US banks.
Another reason you should be bearish on crypto fundamentally is because it's a part of the CCP's shadow banking system used by the Triad and United Front Work Department to corrupt and bribe and fund foreign influence operations.
Xi Jinping is responsible for all of this if he fails to throw the CCP away and return to tradition.
And Bitcoin is also implicitly bloodied in the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Gong and its organ harvesting campaign conducted by now-dead former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toad faction.
Bitcoin won't be kept. If there are digital currencies in the future, it will be JP Morgan's proprietary Ethereum fork, which SWIFT itself has been piloting a layer on top of for what's coming in the future.
But since we're a ways away from that yet, there's a number of opportunities that still remain here.
I'm focusing on CME Futures because Binance and the spot exchanges don't matter. If you were around in '17 when CME/CBOE Futures launched you know everything changed literally the minute futes markets opened.
This declining trendline stuff is going to get taken out. It should get taken out pretty quick too, with CPI and FOMC pending on Tuesday and Wednesday.
And so with the dump on the news of "market makers extracting their liquidity" or whatever it was over the weekend and the Friday night dump that causes futures to re-open gapped down we have a setup.
The call is that the MM will raid the $25,000 psychological level, which takes out the June Low of the Month where long stops will be triggered.
This will take longs out of the game and prevent them from selling to buy orders around $29,000, which is where the big cowboys want to get short.
They want to get short because we're going back to $16,500, so everyone can capitulate for a few months, before the final coup de grace that has been arranged somewhere around $55,000.
So you want to keep a balanced perspective amidst this FUD surrounding Binance getting sued.
Tether won't be destroyed until Bitcoin is flirting with $50,000 again.
You get an 18%~ long opportunity to $29,000 with a 4.78 R/R if you regard the $24,000 gap to be poison, because after all these months, touching it again is probably a harbinger of doom.
And then you can use those profits to finance a stop loss for a short from $29,600~ all the way to the bottom and on a time frame that is probably two or three months at most.
What I really want to say to everyone who's been involved with crypto is this:
You need to wash your hands and practice social distancing from the Chinese Communist Party.
You need to quit the Party and make up for the bad things you've done to help that regime and its persecution of the entire human race continue all these years.
If you don't, it's not just your bank accounts that will suffer "cascading liquidation."
Note
Notable is that Futes did not take out $25,000 on Monday with CPI on deck and FOMC on Wednesday.Right now my theory is that we'll get the usual scheme of a manipulation wick taking the bottom at CPI and then it'll pump and FOMC will pump it again.
A lot easier to long spot for the trade than it is to long futures on leverage.
Note
I suppose if this trade is to work, the timing is pretty good:1. Post FOMC
2. Raids $25,000
3. Does it while futures are closed
Note
If you ask me, that looks like the trough formed a bottoming pattern and at the right level.Note
Now that futures raided the bottom and even went and took a 4H pivot, buy the dip, in my opinion.Also: definitely a possibility BTC/ETH do better than 29k/$1,950 during this manipulation.
Note
So far so good on this. For a top, be careful when the Futures algo prints $30,000.Note
Yes, it's broken the trendline and everything has worked out as anticipated.What happens over a four day time period can be very misleading. Better to take the trade and go away, really.
Danger at $30,000.
Although it is possible a new high is set for the monthly. Bitcoin's price action supports rebalancing a monthly gap around $32,000, while Ethereum already did.
Ethereum:
Note
Notable is that both BTC and ETH are now trading at a premium on CME futures.I really don't think with the overall macro conditions of the markets that it's going to be time for a new bull run.
BTC may have as much as BER:33K on futures before it turns around.
Note
Bitcoin sets a new high but this short term price action is suspect.Imo what we're like to see over the weekend/into Monday and Tuesday is something like $27,000 and then $33,000-$35,000 to start July.
Note
It's really notable that the BTC daily on spot exchanges is not bearish. It's set a new high but after several days there's been no magnitude on the sell off and meaningful lows have been safeguarded.$33,000 ahead is certainly likely.
Note
Bitcoin has been trading with a notable, although sometimes sporadic, negative covariance to the SPX and Nasdaq:I anticipate the indexes to slide towards 14,500 and 4,280 before month end.
Will we finally see the ETH/BTC tops?
Note
A notable piece of manipulation between BTC/ETH/Futures.BTC spot and BTC CME futures printed a lower low, but ETH Binance wicked a gap and bounced, but ETH CME Futures did not touch the gap.
This may actually indicate that a new high is not coming.
Note
If you ask me, BTC CME Futures has topped on the hourly, and that means with 1.5 hours to go in the monthly candle that it will not balance the gap from last June.That is _extremely_ bearish for crypto over the next few months. Bearish enough I believe that $12,000 is the next target.
When I have time I will make a new call.
Note
I really do believe that, based on hour candles and this daily perspective, that the top is in on Bitcoin Binance futures as well.However, please be advised that "top" in this context refers most strictly to the ten daily candles that compose this sweep over the April highs.
It's entirely possible for a dump to $27,000 and then more uppy.
But it's also entirely possible for a dump to $27,000 and top longers get liquidated, and quick.
Note
The Ex-Date for 66 cent Dividends on the BITO ETF just happens to be tomorrow morning.That's a pretty fat div on a ~$20 stock.
Then, everyone is free to sell, and sell, and sell.
Note
Notable divergence this morning is that BTC is trading inversely to SPX Futures.Note
I just read on Twitter that BTC transfer volume from miner wallets to exchanges is not only at a 3 year high, but like 5x the levels seen in 2020.Super dangerous. But there still may be $33,000 in the cards after some dumping.
Note
BTC Futures has officially balanced the monthly gap:
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