Long

BTCCNY: Daily update

Updated

This is what we're looking at here. We're already in a full position, so, we're limited to use leverage to add trades here. We took a long, currently in profit, and we're aiming to book profits and reduce our long term position against resistance higher.

We'd like to see the following happen next:

No new lows after today.
Daily close above 5175.
Price not hitting going under 4811, and not hitting 3991 by the 16th (if #1 and #2 happen...naturally, this won't occur)
Price return to 6300 give or take, within a few days, and then go up to test the PBOC key level.

After this happens, we'll need to see how price action evolves, in which case, I'd favor booking profits from our longs, except for the core long term position of 15-30%. In my case, I aim to hold 20/20%, in ETH and BTC, and not close these until we achieve the long term targets described in my other charts.

Good luck to us all.
Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

Note

Note

Some older bottoms after corrections:

Look at all the time there is left for the uptrend to pan out. The required target is signaled by the arrow roughly.

This should clarify things, specially for some followers, like rivet.popper here who was inquiring about the required momentum to hit the targets...You can see that there is plenty of time to hit the target, even with a ton of boring sideways action at first, or different developments. We just need to bottom here, and form an accumulation pattern before marching higher, and then hold each level and progress higher gradually in a healthy uptrend.

Note

This also illustrates how volatility has decreased with larger adoption and participation in this market. The PBOC 'informal guidance' which has already made Chinese exchanges to remove margin lending will only favor even lower risk for larger investors to join, and for broader adoption of BTC. We have huge upside ahead, in the long term, but it will take patience.

Meanwhile, we can take swing trades on the long side, hedge some of the exposure periodically, and/or diversify our risk in the crypto space with other instruments like ETHEUR or ETHUSD, or even derivatives...maybe one day we can have vanilla options and sell calls against our coins at the top of rallies ;)

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Two more days to confirm the failure of the recent post PBOC downtrend here. Sit tight!

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More likely to stay sideways for a while, but, long term we remain bullish. In the short term and intermediate term, we want to see the low of this correction hold. No lower prices, before we see BTC way higher...ideally, so, crossing fingers.

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Downtrend signal has failed, we should be going back to 6320 within the next 6 days ideally. Either way, sellers are trapped, and we have good odds of price recovering, so be patient and hold.

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Acting strong!

I closed my leveraged longs for a healthy 3% gain, give or take. Holding the rest of my positions intact for now.

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3 possible directions: up, sideways, down...which will irritate the most people? That's the most probable one, and it is, sideways.

If we don't drop down to the place the arrow shows, we'll consolidate around here, and then head higher. If we go straight up, we'll rebound and consolidate, or simply consolidate up there. Either way, intermediate term and long term, it remains bullish.

Short term, we're at the mercy of the smart money, a short term shakeout wouldn't shock me, this is a logical place to reduce exposure and only keep spot longs.

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In case anyone missed it...check out my 'orange guess'.

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On track.

IvanLabrie

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BTCCNY: Correction happened, as expected

by IvanLabrie

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