Bitcoin Futures 4hr
Updated
Short target 1 was hit and now BTC futures forming rising pennant pattern on 1hr. The pennant is normally a continuation pattern but quality diminishes considerably when rising so confirmation of breakout would be advised. Concern is high volume reversal on bullish bars at each rising upper trendline touch. Bearish reversals each time it tests the upper line. The more times that occurs the more bearish it becomes and will lead to downside if not broken though soon. Last two candles point to retest of 8598 and lower trendline .
longs could be taken on test of lower trendline area reversal or first bullish close after test with close stops below lower trend line but would be best to wait for break out confirmation out of pattern.
Or short on downside break or back test. Aggressive shorts at retest of upper trendlne with easy stop low risk position with stops on break out above upper trendline. Pattern is not highly reliable so Id be ready for move either way if wanted a swing trade. I would position short trade at upper trendline if possible.
Upside break out would lead to Test of 1rst resistance line around 9500 and then target of $10200
Downside break down Target 7100 with probable S1 a near 7700
Although normally a bullish pattern, the candle pattern, volume and price action and Bearish reversals at upper trendline point to downside break
longs could be taken on test of lower trendline area reversal or first bullish close after test with close stops below lower trend line but would be best to wait for break out confirmation out of pattern.
Or short on downside break or back test. Aggressive shorts at retest of upper trendlne with easy stop low risk position with stops on break out above upper trendline. Pattern is not highly reliable so Id be ready for move either way if wanted a swing trade. I would position short trade at upper trendline if possible.
Upside break out would lead to Test of 1rst resistance line around 9500 and then target of $10200
Downside break down Target 7100 with probable S1 a near 7700
Although normally a bullish pattern, the candle pattern, volume and price action and Bearish reversals at upper trendline point to downside break
Note
Latest candle again turned at upper trendline. Shorts initiated there are already in the money and will likely see lower trendline target and if volume expands on downside S1 given and 7100 likely. Expect downside break if volume expands on decline and upside reversal an trendline if volume expands on reversalNote
Lower trendline reached and broken but No expansion of volume on move. Has closed out side pattern and below support of 8575 range. Short term momentum is down. Break below 8349 and S1 on deck.Note
A move back inside pattern and break out to R1 of 9500, back test or pattern then if successful would expect and eventual rum to target zone and possible upper channel on prior posts.Note
Note
Target met and now has formed into a rising wedge. Momentum trying to go vertical that could push it to upper MA of 11000 range. A downside break of wedge would lead to retest of 9500 and then 9300 areas.
Note
In target zone now should make run for 11100Trade closed: target reached
11040 hit. Perfect run. All targets met, roughly 18% gain in 7 days. Chart worked perfectly since we took the short term counter trend trade on FEB 11.
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