Expecting a lot of counter-intuitive price action next 12 months.
Not sure who will come out on top of this in terms of P&L ...
so it seems nobody is making money really without forecasting skill.
Not sure who will come out on top of this in terms of P&L ...
- market makers: are sitting out (nobody lending)
- long-only: will be down more from forced selling on next new lows
- trend-followers: will get whipsawed as there are no easy trends but volatility is high
- short-only: not sure if anybody does this but will get squeezed if picking entries to early
- opportunistic: has potential, no bias just waits for price to go where
nobody expects and fades it, but trade frequency low (think 2 trades / year) - selling premium: low return if hedged, nobody lending (as with market makers)
- basis / cash & carry: basis / funding is low these days, might pick up
from demand for margin leverage, but doubt it
so it seems nobody is making money really without forecasting skill.
Note
I estimate 10% risk from position entry to exit price for $1-10 billion size, calculated based on these adverse scenarios. Adjusting for slippage from higher size with wider selling range which doesn't affect delta b/w entry/exit due to trailing as demonstrated belowNote
30 days idea for $1-10bn size: I would top-bid long (zero fee) while price >$18k and rises $1k/week. Would sell if price is sub $20k in 2 weeks or if breaking $18k. Potential profit $400m - 
4BN depending on how much will get filled. ~4:1 risk-reward ...Note
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.