Will there even be a bounce?
While I don't think there will be a -50% Covid-19 style shock-and-awe dump of a lifetime on Sunday night,right before a US national holiday, I am pointing out that Bitcoin is in a very similar posture and a deep dive can't be ruled out. My account is hedged accordingly.
When I'm not confident in what the market is doing I tend to just watch. Before the dump from
12K I was skeptical that it was going to continue up, so I sat out and watched. Well, it dumped and there is now a defined range between 9.1K to 10.9K. I'm not shorting until there is a break of the 12H support at $10,150 and there could be a bear test bounce back to 10.6K or even 10.9k before this continues down.
The stock market looks like it put in a top for 2020, or at least it appears to be very close to a top. Nasdaq, S&P500 and FANG/TESLA had a pretty devastating close. Bitcoin seems to be run by the same institutional algorithms as equities. So, if the stock market continues down I expect crypto to follow or even lead the plunge as the higher risk assets tend to get liquidated first. There is no hedge is a global crisis.
If Bitcoin can hold the $9.1 to 9.3k level for a few days and grind its way back up the rising channel, I think this can recover and eventually head up to the 13 and 14ks, but I just don't see that happening for weeks or months. Could the US Federal Reserve Bank do something magical to prop up equities until November, maybe. We'll see.
Note that 9.3k is the volume point of control in the volume profile (search "visible range" in indicators. I actually think there will be a wick down to $8950 and then support could be established at $9.3-9.5K and crawl back up. That level could also get melted, so exercise caution.
***not financial advise
When I'm not confident in what the market is doing I tend to just watch. Before the dump from
12K I was skeptical that it was going to continue up, so I sat out and watched. Well, it dumped and there is now a defined range between 9.1K to 10.9K. I'm not shorting until there is a break of the 12H support at $10,150 and there could be a bear test bounce back to 10.6K or even 10.9k before this continues down. The stock market looks like it put in a top for 2020, or at least it appears to be very close to a top. Nasdaq, S&P500 and FANG/TESLA had a pretty devastating close. Bitcoin seems to be run by the same institutional algorithms as equities. So, if the stock market continues down I expect crypto to follow or even lead the plunge as the higher risk assets tend to get liquidated first. There is no hedge is a global crisis.
If Bitcoin can hold the $9.1 to 9.3k level for a few days and grind its way back up the rising channel, I think this can recover and eventually head up to the 13 and 14ks, but I just don't see that happening for weeks or months. Could the US Federal Reserve Bank do something magical to prop up equities until November, maybe. We'll see.
Note that 9.3k is the volume point of control in the volume profile (search "visible range" in indicators. I actually think there will be a wick down to $8950 and then support could be established at $9.3-9.5K and crawl back up. That level could also get melted, so exercise caution.
***not financial advise
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.