BTC won´t go for a new ATH. Prices below 52k incoming.
Why am I more bearish on BTC than bullish? Why will I be more bullish on BTC after a huge dump? Why do I think that BTC will go to 52k and even lower before we see a new ATH? As you guys know I love to use my sequences from the sequence system. It has proven itself to be very reliable. Sometimes the direction can be unclear when there are two active sequences (one for a bullish- and one for a bearish case). Most of the times the one with the biggest support and the one into the confirmed trend direction will get finished. We are having a bearish sequence since the 1st decision point (dp) got broken with a daily candle close below. Remember that time when everyone was calling for a new ATH and I was calling 62k in Crypto Yams? This bearish sequence remains active as long as 72900ish wick does not get wicked. At that given time, the bearish sequence was standing against the big bullish sequence with the first target at 81k. It was a 1 against 1, a 50/50 scenario. After creating the sequence, the price has three options: 1) finish the sequence 2) invalidate the sequence 3) coming back into the correction zone (purple box) after leaving the .382 of the correction box (blue ray). The price came back one more time into the correction zone after leaving the .382. At that time it was having the option to test the 2nd dp at 58233. A daily close below would activate a second bearish sequence. It tested the 2nd dp to the dollar and broke it some days later. At that given time our probabilities changed from a 50/50 scenario into a more bearish one. I was thinking that two bearish sequences will be enough to go to 50-52k. When price has been at 53k I was sure that we will see another leg down. But this thinking process has been stupid. It is like shorting the bottoms and longing the highs. With the sequence system you are shorting in the area of the "whole correction zone" (purple box) and you are taking profits lower. Trading this system, you are always aware of another pullback into the correction zone. I haven´t been aware of that, it was a mistake. Price came back into the whole correction zone for the 3rd time which gave us a 3rd decision point at 55858. These dp´s love to get tested. If the daily closes below the 3rd dp, we will have a 3rd bearish sequence with targets even lower then the previous activated sequences. However, all of them will bring us into this correction zone for the bullish sequence. Over there it will be the safest to look for longs. Retail isn´t doing that. They are looking for massive longs since we made a new ATH, especially because we are spending soooo much time above 60k. But this isn´t bullish. We are just building and strengthen this bearish foundation (purple box). It is like someone is building a house. Will the foundation be weak for a weak move or will it be strong? The stronger it gets, the more impulsive the final move will become. Market makers can easily sell off in this area while using retails liquidity as exit liquidity, preparing a bigger dump. Market makers can easily buy back at 52k, at 45k, below 40k, wherever they want. They can easily do that. Everyone and his mother is invested in BTC right now. The pain will start at prices below 50k. People will have doubts when we will prepare for something bigger again. Could my bearish idea become wrong? Yes. Just in terms of probabilities it is what makes the most sense to me. Earlier in this article I have mentioned that sometimes it can be confusing to have a bearish sequence and a bullish sequence at the same time. Now we know that we are building a stronger foundation with more bearish sequences and that the trend will support one of those directions. What is the trend saying? Is it strong? Without bearish divs? Is the weekly up without the chance for a bearish convergence? Is the monthly up without a bearish div? Midterm timeframes can not get bearish convergences? You already know my answers for my sarcastic questions while reading this.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.