Crypto Alpha Report - January 06
Happy Monday, friends! In today’s issue, I want to cover the grind and the mindset necessary to succeed in 2025.
Love it or hate it, you are not a computer. You are a biological meat bag filled with swirling hormones, fluids, and organic components. While many of us favor philosophy, the pursuit of truth/wisdom, and self-improvement, we’re still hindered by our biology regarding stress, anxiety, motivation, and discipline.
You see, the answers don’t all live up in your mind. The answers often live inside your body. There will be days you don’t want to trade, days you don’t want to backtest, and days you don’t want to scan the markets. While being kind to ourselves is essential, it’s equally important not to let poor planning and overreliance on our “feelings” dictate our actions.
Just as it is essential to set clear profit targets and goals for our trades and investments BEFORE entering a position, it’s equally important to set a pre-planned schedule and routine for our trading and investment activities.
Too often, I would wake up early and be excited to get to the markets. I would log onto my computer and immediately consume all of my alpha newsletters, telegram & discord chats, and then start scrolling X searching for Alpha. Before I knew it, it would be the afternoon, and while I “felt” like I had done something productive for my trading account, I hadn’t done a thing but scroll social media.
Knowledge without action is pointless. It doesn’t do you a bit of good to listen to a long podcast about motivation if you don’t use that knowledge to make any fundamental changes in your life. Similar in crypto, while it’s helpful to have a baseline knowledge of the ecosystem, at the end of the day, we’re not working in the marketing department for any project or giving long lectures or TED talks about cryptocurrency evangelism. We’re here to make money.
Researching all these new projects and trading strategies isn’t helpful if it doesn’t inspire direct action. You will be much more sane AND profitable if you restrict your knowledge-gathering activities to more actionable intel.
There’s only so much time in the day, and you can’t be good at everything. It is better to niche down, focus on what you’re going to trade, and focus on the chains you’re holding positions on than to get spread too thin knowing a little bit about a lot.
Here’s to niching down for riches in 2025 friends.
Crypto Market Update
Macro
Stablecoin Dominance
A nice clean breakdown from our consolidation area and a Lower Low. Happy days for altcoin holders. Our portfolios are up nicely because of it. This metric is getting close to being oversold, so I expect a corrective move up to re-test the breakdown point of 5.75% within the next 3-5 days. Use this metric to take short-term profits on higher-risk, lower-conviction positions.
Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance
This metric got oversold over the weekend, and today, it is putting in a nice bounce. As we already saw that Stablecoin Dominance is down, we know this is purely capital rotation back into Bitcoin, as people are beginning to finally buy back into Bitcoin with some size and conviction and dump stables.
Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin
This metric is taking a hit today as altcoins pull back as capital rotates back into Bitcoin. This pullback will likely last a few more days, so there is an opportunity to cycle altcoin gains back into Bitcoin until this metric stabilizes. However, you can also hold your altcoin positions as this metric is still in an uptrend, and the long-term potential for overperformance is very high.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin had a beautiful day today, successfully reclaiming $100,000. We have regained bullish momentum on all timeframes and should continue to see overall price appreciation dominating throughout the week. Expect prices to pull back this weekend into early next week in anticipation of the Interest Rate print coming out on the 15th, but should that print be positive, we should rally into Trump’s inauguration.
Trends
5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Bullish
D: Bullish
W: Bullish
Bitcoin has successfully regained its bullish trend in all timeframes. The 1H Guppies have been dominating as the pullback entry zone for this current rally. That range is currently $99,200 - $100,000. Limit bids for re-entry can be stacked there and at the 4H pullback zone of $97,200 - $98,000.
Key Levels
POC: $93,634
VWAP: $100,481
Value Area High: $102,185 - $103,823
Value Area Low: $97,139 - $98,777
Next Liquidity Zone Above: $103,550 - $104,267
Next Liquidity Zone Below: $96,522 - $98,580
Generally, following big breakouts like this, Bitcoin does not pullback very much and just continues aggressively. Nevertheless, this is a higher-risk type of entry. I recommend setting limit bids at $99,700 as I see a liquidity gap (likely a dip target). If Bitcoin keeps pushing, we should move rapidly for the next liquidity zone above.
Strategy:
While enthusiastic, discipline as a trader and following our pre-plan is essential for long-term success. We still face a potential bull trap between $100,000 - $108,000, and Bitcoin has key catalysts coming up in the form of the Interest Rate Print (15th), Trump’s Inauguration (20th), and FOMC Decision (29th).
As I originally outlined, I don’t expect the Fed to pivot on interest rate decisions until March or May, which means Bitcoin is unlikely to sustain a continued rally above the current ATH until that event occurs.
While I would love to be wrong, I expect a reversal in Bitcoin’s price somewhere around $105,000 - $108,000 unless something crazy happens following Trump’s inauguration (sighing of SBR on day one?).
Therefore, I recommend taking partial profits on Bitcoin longs opened up at or below $95,000. Move your Stop Loss to $95,000 or slightly above, and continue to hold positions.
Look for re-entries on pullbacks to the key levels identified above.
Love it or hate it, you are not a computer. You are a biological meat bag filled with swirling hormones, fluids, and organic components. While many of us favor philosophy, the pursuit of truth/wisdom, and self-improvement, we’re still hindered by our biology regarding stress, anxiety, motivation, and discipline.
You see, the answers don’t all live up in your mind. The answers often live inside your body. There will be days you don’t want to trade, days you don’t want to backtest, and days you don’t want to scan the markets. While being kind to ourselves is essential, it’s equally important not to let poor planning and overreliance on our “feelings” dictate our actions.
Just as it is essential to set clear profit targets and goals for our trades and investments BEFORE entering a position, it’s equally important to set a pre-planned schedule and routine for our trading and investment activities.
Too often, I would wake up early and be excited to get to the markets. I would log onto my computer and immediately consume all of my alpha newsletters, telegram & discord chats, and then start scrolling X searching for Alpha. Before I knew it, it would be the afternoon, and while I “felt” like I had done something productive for my trading account, I hadn’t done a thing but scroll social media.
Knowledge without action is pointless. It doesn’t do you a bit of good to listen to a long podcast about motivation if you don’t use that knowledge to make any fundamental changes in your life. Similar in crypto, while it’s helpful to have a baseline knowledge of the ecosystem, at the end of the day, we’re not working in the marketing department for any project or giving long lectures or TED talks about cryptocurrency evangelism. We’re here to make money.
Researching all these new projects and trading strategies isn’t helpful if it doesn’t inspire direct action. You will be much more sane AND profitable if you restrict your knowledge-gathering activities to more actionable intel.
There’s only so much time in the day, and you can’t be good at everything. It is better to niche down, focus on what you’re going to trade, and focus on the chains you’re holding positions on than to get spread too thin knowing a little bit about a lot.
Here’s to niching down for riches in 2025 friends.
Crypto Market Update
Macro
Stablecoin Dominance
A nice clean breakdown from our consolidation area and a Lower Low. Happy days for altcoin holders. Our portfolios are up nicely because of it. This metric is getting close to being oversold, so I expect a corrective move up to re-test the breakdown point of 5.75% within the next 3-5 days. Use this metric to take short-term profits on higher-risk, lower-conviction positions.
Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance
This metric got oversold over the weekend, and today, it is putting in a nice bounce. As we already saw that Stablecoin Dominance is down, we know this is purely capital rotation back into Bitcoin, as people are beginning to finally buy back into Bitcoin with some size and conviction and dump stables.
Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin
This metric is taking a hit today as altcoins pull back as capital rotates back into Bitcoin. This pullback will likely last a few more days, so there is an opportunity to cycle altcoin gains back into Bitcoin until this metric stabilizes. However, you can also hold your altcoin positions as this metric is still in an uptrend, and the long-term potential for overperformance is very high.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin had a beautiful day today, successfully reclaiming $100,000. We have regained bullish momentum on all timeframes and should continue to see overall price appreciation dominating throughout the week. Expect prices to pull back this weekend into early next week in anticipation of the Interest Rate print coming out on the 15th, but should that print be positive, we should rally into Trump’s inauguration.
Trends
5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Bullish
D: Bullish
W: Bullish
Bitcoin has successfully regained its bullish trend in all timeframes. The 1H Guppies have been dominating as the pullback entry zone for this current rally. That range is currently $99,200 - $100,000. Limit bids for re-entry can be stacked there and at the 4H pullback zone of $97,200 - $98,000.
Key Levels
POC: $93,634
VWAP: $100,481
Value Area High: $102,185 - $103,823
Value Area Low: $97,139 - $98,777
Next Liquidity Zone Above: $103,550 - $104,267
Next Liquidity Zone Below: $96,522 - $98,580
Generally, following big breakouts like this, Bitcoin does not pullback very much and just continues aggressively. Nevertheless, this is a higher-risk type of entry. I recommend setting limit bids at $99,700 as I see a liquidity gap (likely a dip target). If Bitcoin keeps pushing, we should move rapidly for the next liquidity zone above.
Strategy:
While enthusiastic, discipline as a trader and following our pre-plan is essential for long-term success. We still face a potential bull trap between $100,000 - $108,000, and Bitcoin has key catalysts coming up in the form of the Interest Rate Print (15th), Trump’s Inauguration (20th), and FOMC Decision (29th).
As I originally outlined, I don’t expect the Fed to pivot on interest rate decisions until March or May, which means Bitcoin is unlikely to sustain a continued rally above the current ATH until that event occurs.
While I would love to be wrong, I expect a reversal in Bitcoin’s price somewhere around $105,000 - $108,000 unless something crazy happens following Trump’s inauguration (sighing of SBR on day one?).
Therefore, I recommend taking partial profits on Bitcoin longs opened up at or below $95,000. Move your Stop Loss to $95,000 or slightly above, and continue to hold positions.
Look for re-entries on pullbacks to the key levels identified above.
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