Crypto Alpha Report - January 20, 2025
Happy Monday, friends! It’s Trump’s Inauguration Day, and the markets are exploding. Let’s dive in and see how far we can go.
Over the past week, we’ve seen a complete flip of ETF inflows. A clear trend has been established; while it seemed that many were fading the market in anticipation of today, that sentiment appears to have flipped moving into the end of last week.
While Trump’s inauguration was initially seen as a ‘Sell the News’ event, it’s now being viewed as a ‘Buy the News’ event. Primarily for Bitcoin, I believe much of this hinges on the possibility of Trump signing an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Bitcoin has now broken out of its consolidation wedge formation, and with three strong days of ETF inflows, I favor a spot Bitcoin long position.
Ultimately, price is unfolding as we have expected throughout all of January. We anticipated prices rising following a dovish inflation print; we expected price to pump into Trump’s inauguration. Moving forward, we expect some headwinds into January’s FOMC on the 29th, where I expect Powell to remain hawkish on inflation.
However, I’m now less concerned with the market reversing in any significant way following that, and I am more confident about the rally continuing. Ethereum is concerning, and I might parlay my ETH positions into short calls or another play as activity on ETH continues to drop.
Ultimately, market structure and flow suggest a continuation of this rally. At the same time, catalysts, depending on what Trump signs into action today, could significantly ignite pumps moving into the end of January.
Over the past week, we’ve seen a complete flip of ETF inflows. A clear trend has been established; while it seemed that many were fading the market in anticipation of today, that sentiment appears to have flipped moving into the end of last week.
While Trump’s inauguration was initially seen as a ‘Sell the News’ event, it’s now being viewed as a ‘Buy the News’ event. Primarily for Bitcoin, I believe much of this hinges on the possibility of Trump signing an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Bitcoin has now broken out of its consolidation wedge formation, and with three strong days of ETF inflows, I favor a spot Bitcoin long position.
Ultimately, price is unfolding as we have expected throughout all of January. We anticipated prices rising following a dovish inflation print; we expected price to pump into Trump’s inauguration. Moving forward, we expect some headwinds into January’s FOMC on the 29th, where I expect Powell to remain hawkish on inflation.
However, I’m now less concerned with the market reversing in any significant way following that, and I am more confident about the rally continuing. Ethereum is concerning, and I might parlay my ETH positions into short calls or another play as activity on ETH continues to drop.
Ultimately, market structure and flow suggest a continuation of this rally. At the same time, catalysts, depending on what Trump signs into action today, could significantly ignite pumps moving into the end of January.
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