Hello Traders,
That second lower high Bitcoin made has alarm bells ringing in my head and made me feel really bearish. This leads me to believe we are in a wave 4 retracement. If price breaks above the LH then this TA is invalid.
Is it possible to map the course of this retrace?
I have copied a retracement fractal (there are many) from one of Bitcoins previous dumps.
The weekly 100MA will be sweeping through and I am expecting some interaction with price in the form of a bear flag.
The weekly 50MA is also sweeping through and just so happens, as if by some bizarre coincidence to line up right on the 0.618 golden ratio retrace.
The gann fan is in place and lines up nicely.
In my head this would seem a logical course of events for price action on this retrace.
That second lower high Bitcoin made has alarm bells ringing in my head and made me feel really bearish. This leads me to believe we are in a wave 4 retracement. If price breaks above the LH then this TA is invalid.
Is it possible to map the course of this retrace?
I have copied a retracement fractal (there are many) from one of Bitcoins previous dumps.
The weekly 100MA will be sweeping through and I am expecting some interaction with price in the form of a bear flag.
The weekly 50MA is also sweeping through and just so happens, as if by some bizarre coincidence to line up right on the 0.618 golden ratio retrace.
The gann fan is in place and lines up nicely.
In my head this would seem a logical course of events for price action on this retrace.
Note
Here is a better look at that gann fan and my projected course of the weekly 100MA. Note
Things are getting dangerous here. A 3rd LH has been printed and there appears to be a classic H+S formation forming here. Note
Right ok this is slow going. Price dropped below the neckline of that slanted H+S just to wick on a fib and come back up again. As we are waiting for the price to make its mind up I want to share some other things I am noticing on indicators and other TA tools. In this picture.... you can see the big picture with the fib time tool lining up with dramatic changes in price direction. I have also put a MACD indicator on the chart. The MACD is reading the second highest reading on that indicator for BTC ever and has formed a bearish crossover. This indicator alone is showing bearishness.
Note
I have also gone back through old BTC price action to look at the retraces and am noticing a lot of similarity's in this double top price formation then 2 lower highs. These are just a few examples... Note
I should have mentioned this earlier but of course we have the Elliot Wave count. This is the count I have, happy with it, solid count. I know EW can sometimes be "subjective" so if your count does not match this count then show me. Other than that all TA seems rigid, consistent and its pointing down. Note
Right OK its definitely looking more bearish now. Its formed a broadening descending wedge. Note
hmm Note
incredible. that little h+s broke out. TA invalid. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.