Bitcoin 2025 Prediction and Analysis
I predict we see ~100% increase from prior all time high (ATH) and the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top sometime in early 2025 (March or April-ish). This puts bitcoin at roughly $140,000 with the better case scenario being 158k. I would like to note that bitcoin has continuously surprised me over the years.
I have drawn some hypothetical paths leading towards the next profit zone. The blue is the best case scenario, yellow follows previous structure, and red what I would consider conservative.
- Previous Cycle Structures: Each BTC market cycle, subsequent peaks from prior ATH have topped out two rainbow regression bands lower than the previous cycle. This pattern has formed over the past 3 major tops in Dec 2013, Dec 2017, and Nov 2021
- Best Case Scenario: -1.618 Fib Retracement is @ ~$158,000
- Natural Scenario: -0.618 Fib Retracement is @ ~$158,000
The Fibonacci Retracements taken from prior cycle low to breakout past prior ATH. This approximately resembles what the prior cycles did and where they saw consolidation.
I'm also taking the cyclical nature of BTC in the beginning life-cycle as halvings affect the supply and hash rates. We have typically seen the peak occur between 150-300 days after breakout. Furthermore, if you average out the month over month ROI since August 2010, we find that April and November have historically seen the best returns at an average of 40% for lower bound and 110% as upper bound. I also took into consideration the low volume we have seen compared to prior peaks.
Finally, with the change in administration, I cannot ignore the media and social attention crypto will see in as we head into 2025 and more.
~ hope i'm right ~
I have drawn some hypothetical paths leading towards the next profit zone. The blue is the best case scenario, yellow follows previous structure, and red what I would consider conservative.
- Previous Cycle Structures: Each BTC market cycle, subsequent peaks from prior ATH have topped out two rainbow regression bands lower than the previous cycle. This pattern has formed over the past 3 major tops in Dec 2013, Dec 2017, and Nov 2021
- Best Case Scenario: -1.618 Fib Retracement is @ ~$158,000
- Natural Scenario: -0.618 Fib Retracement is @ ~$158,000
The Fibonacci Retracements taken from prior cycle low to breakout past prior ATH. This approximately resembles what the prior cycles did and where they saw consolidation.
I'm also taking the cyclical nature of BTC in the beginning life-cycle as halvings affect the supply and hash rates. We have typically seen the peak occur between 150-300 days after breakout. Furthermore, if you average out the month over month ROI since August 2010, we find that April and November have historically seen the best returns at an average of 40% for lower bound and 110% as upper bound. I also took into consideration the low volume we have seen compared to prior peaks.
Finally, with the change in administration, I cannot ignore the media and social attention crypto will see in as we head into 2025 and more.
~ hope i'm right ~
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