BITCOIN: HISTORICAL AND LOGARITHMIC CHART!
Updated
This chart is based on historical data and is logarithmic.
I believe that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot continue to grow exponentially; this would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025. While I am a long-term Bitcoin bull, one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock followed by a subsequent rally—every time. These are all guesstimates, of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The long-term goal for BTC in 2025 is around 150K to 180K USD, in my opinion. It won't go much higher afterward and can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
Important Things to Note
- During the 2016 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 303-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $19,666.
- During the 2020 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 337-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $69,000.
- In the 2024 bull run, BTC broke its previous ATH in just 500 days, which was not expected. The current situation is that BTC broke out of its previous ATH and is currently retesting it. Based on historical data, we can expect a bull run lasting between 303 and 337 days.
I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC. This idea is presented in a probabilistic manner.
I believe that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot continue to grow exponentially; this would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025. While I am a long-term Bitcoin bull, one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock followed by a subsequent rally—every time. These are all guesstimates, of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The long-term goal for BTC in 2025 is around 150K to 180K USD, in my opinion. It won't go much higher afterward and can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
Important Things to Note
- During the 2016 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 303-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $19,666.
- During the 2020 bull run, after breaking its previous ATH, BTC had a 337-day bull run and reached a new ATH of $69,000.
- In the 2024 bull run, BTC broke its previous ATH in just 500 days, which was not expected. The current situation is that BTC broke out of its previous ATH and is currently retesting it. Based on historical data, we can expect a bull run lasting between 303 and 337 days.
I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC. This idea is presented in a probabilistic manner.
Note
#Bitcoin
As always, #BTC surprises us. After breaking this descending channel, BTC failed to retest the support and is currently back inside the channel.
Now, 67k to 67.5k are working as support.
After this fakeout, I am expecting a breakout again.
Here we have two scenarios:
In the first scenario, we will bounce from the support level of 67K to 67.5K, break the pattern again, and move forward.
In the second scenario, we might see more downward moves toward the 50MA to retest it and then break the pattern again, and move forward.
#Crypto
BTC 
BTCUSDTNote
During bullish phases, it's common to observe long-term holders (LTHs) offloading portions of their Bitcoin holdings as prices rise.
During bullish phases, it's common to observe long-term holders (LTHs) offloading portions of their Bitcoin holdings as prices rise. This trend was apparent from early 2024 through April, with notable declines in the supply held by the 1-year and 2-year old UTXOs. Despite this selling pressure, the supply of Bitcoin in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) held for over three years continues to increase, signaling long-term bullish sentiment among these holders.
More than 50% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained inactive on-chain for over a year, reflecting a strong conviction among long-term holders. This inactivity suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin investors are confident in the asset's long-term value, opting to hold rather than sell despite market fluctuations.
Supply Dynamics and Holder Behavior
As Bitcoin's price recovers from the recent correction to $56,000, we notice a shift in holder behavior. The 1-year+ and 2-year+ cohorts have ceased selling, transitioning from a distribution phase to a holding phase. This change indicates a renewed confidence in Bitcoin's future price potential, as these cohorts choose to retain their holdings rather than liquidate them at current prices.
Bitcoin's technical outlook is currently at a critical juncture, with the price testing significant support levels. The behavior of long-term holders, coupled with key on-chain metrics, suggests a strong underlying bullish sentiment. However, a break below the daily Ichimoku cloud could shift market sentiment, potentially leading to a price retracement towards $64,000. Investors should closely monitor these technical and on-chain indicators to make informed decisions in the coming weeks.
BTC BTCUSDTNote
📊 #Bitcoin Update
🔸 Bitcoin's price is lingering around a critical support zone between $67,000 and $68,000.
🔸 No daily candle close below $67,000 yet, suggesting the support is holding.
🔸 Potential for a bounce if this support holds; however, a confirmed break below $67,000 with a daily close could lead to a retracement to the $63,000 - $64,000 area.
🔸 Bulls must hold above $67,000 to maintain short-term stability.
🔸 A break below $67,000 will shift the short-term outlook to bearish.
🔸 Resistance remains at $72,000 - $74,000.
Stay tuned for more updates!
#Crypto #BTC #Cryptocurrency
Note
#Bitcoin Update 🚨
Perfect bounce from key support area between $67,000 and $68,000. 📉
🔑 If BTC breaks below $67,000, next support is $63,000 - $64,000. For now, $67,000 remains the critical level to watch.
Bitcoin remains neutral in the short term, fluctuating between support and resistance ($67,000–$71,000). Expect more choppy sideways action, as predicted.
Stay tuned for more updates!
DYOR, NFA
#Crypto
Note
#Bitcoin Monthly Chart
After breaking the previous all-time high, BTC successfully retested it.
The monthly candle closed at $67,548. We are now ready to go long. 🚀
What are your views on this chart?
#Crypto
BTCNote
No changes in #Bitcoin It is still holding the $67,000 and $68,000 support levels.
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