Short

Updated

Building a massive short up to 55k

We are seeing a similar pattern to the 2020-2021 bull run, but this time under different circumstances and with Bitcoin at a much higher price.

Over the years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, which continues to attract both institutional and retail investors.

Previously, we experienced a correction from 60K to 30K. Now, we’re observing a correction from approximately 100K to 50K. These are rough estimates, but the trend appears consistent.

In my opinion, based on the past eight years of observing Bitcoin charts (though not daily), the market often feels manipulated. This is likely due to Bitcoin’s relatively smaller market cap compared to other asset classes like stocks, forex, or mega-cap stocks (e.g., FAANGM).

Recently, we faced rejection from a falling wedge pattern on the ES, which is bearish. I had hoped that lower VIX levels would encourage portfolio managers to re-enter the market, but with the stock market holiday on Wednesday, the 25th, I anticipated heightened volatility and an additional correction of approximately 8-10%.

I’m aware that hedge funds are engaging in “window dressing” as the year ends. Portfolio managers are likely to remain passive, avoiding risky trades that could jeopardize their year-end bonuses. As a result, we can expect a quieter market from their side.

Along the way, we may see some “dead cat bounces,” but there’s no need to worry.

I had hoped Bitcoin would maintain its upward trajectory, but putting emotions aside and analyzing objectively:

VWAP is significantly below the current price.
Fibonacci retracement suggests further downside.
Awesome Oscillator (AO) and RSI indicate bearish momentum.
Money flow is negative.
A significant short wall has formed, and many positions have already been liquidated

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Based on this, it seems likely that we’ll continue moving downward.

I’ve included two additional charts in the comments below for further insights.

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here is again 2021 while sp500 going up and BTC going down. Similare pattern again. I am aware of the potential gambler fallacy, where we think past price action can determine the future.

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We see clearly that we are in a downtrend for BTC dominance which is a Positive sign for Altcoin. I have written down a list of coins to short highly correlated Coins to BTC and long also others that correlated but are waiting to jump up and then correction.

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I am waiting for prices to get higher from here and then shorter it between ~98k up to 100k. As 5-minute time frame is getting bullish but the bigger time frames 4h, 12h, and even Day are very bearish.

Note that BTC is not Altcoin!!! So when BTC loses dominance ALT goes up for shot time!

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I am waiting patiently for the top 102k

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Heikin Ashi giving some results for short

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We are hitting the first resistance wall at 98k as I thought

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looks like we are continuing towards 102

as discussed.

Trade active

shorting from here

let's summarize what happening.
sp500 bullish and no liquidity due to Christmas and window dressing.
higher time frame BTC bearish.
Lower time frame 30min BTC consolidation with bearish confluences
since 9th Dec no real size funding rate (objective future = spot price no divergences = neutral)
The open interest notable decrease which bearish

I am taking short up to 51k this does not mean the price will go there in the rearview this happened in the past and in windshield view, BTC should go to 255k, I will be longing few Altcoin at the same time for a specific period while taking some profits out of the BTC short

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IBIT BTC Netflow from BlackRock is in the red (negative), indicating a bearish sentiment. BlackRock may be selling BTC to hedge against downturns and minimize losses, which aligns with their professional asset under management (AUM) strategies. Given BlackRock's strong connections in political and financial circles, their decision to sell, combined with other indicators pointing to a bearish trend, raises significant concerns. Hmm…

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Adding some more shorts, clear swing SFP at the vwap tradingview.com/x/vIYnoH2i/. Everything is going as planed the BTC price can be even higher upto 102k before correcting fully. I am compounding my trade.

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We are still in a trade. We broke the Vwap downward, S/R, POC, and Fib 1,681 and we got the retouched and getting resistance. Now trade valid and strong movement downwards towards 91k.

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in the daily time frame, a fight occurred between the bears and bulls and the retail trader who is losing. The fight came to an end with the big green candle of MFI and the Red candle of the price. This means the interest in lower prices by increased volume.

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It is also important to note that Hight traded platform by volume is Crypto[dot]com and no data is available about it. And On Binance and Coinbase retail traders are stepping in while professional traders remain cautious

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We are still bearish on the 12-hour timeframe, but we are bullish on the 4-hour timeframe. However, a bearish pennant is forming. I plan to take partial profits around 93k. We are currently short from 99k and 98k. If we lose the 91k level, the next support will be at 81k. The reason for taking partial profits is that we are moving between two VWAP levels, and there is roughly a 50% chance of a move in either direction.

SP500 looks bearish following Nasaq in the next few days no new data coming out. (ECO Indicators).

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I have closed a partial position in take profit. waiting to see what will the market do.

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We are still bearish on BTC but waiting for further confluences, as we are currently at a Fibonacci and Point of Control (POC) level. Let’s wait and see what happens. There is currently a 70% downside risk if BTC loses the 91k level. Expect a fast move downward due to the psychological significance of this level. The S&P 500 is bearish, as is the NASDAQ.

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We got rejection of the support at POC = Bearish but lets we wait little bit more

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we broke the support at 92k and the final resistance at 91k

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We did not break the final resistance due to the confluence of VWAP, POC, and Fibonacci levels. Here’s a potential scenario: on the daily timeframe, the bears have the upper hand, while on the 4-hour chart there is still a battle between bears and bulls.

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I am decreasing my position and adjusting my stop-loss to ITM. We are currently at the VWAP, S/R, and VAL levels, which are showing strong support. It seems accumulation is occurring as shorts are losing power. The AO momentum is decreasing, while the RSI is increasing and the price remains stable. These are positive signs of bullish momentum.

Off TradingView Technicals:
Open interest is increasing, accompanied by a bullish delta.

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We are approaching the stop-loss, which is currently in the take-profit area. I am considering opening a long position in another account due to the increase in open interest. This decision is supported by multiple confluences, including indicators on the 4-hour chart, Fibonacci levels, and the breakout of the falling wedge pattern.

Trade closed: stop reached

We have reached the stop and gained some profits :)

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Status: Hold
ANR: Look for alt trades

BTC Analysis:
Bullish, but I view it as a dirty move upwards since the market maker did not squeeze the longs at 91k. If the price had moved from 87k to 89k and continued upward, it would have been a healthier ascent. As longs get squeezed and newly opened shorts at 89k are pressured during the upward movement, if you did not long at the bottom from 91k, I would not recommend longing at 101k. We need to break the resistance and reclaim it before building your portfolio.

We have increased open interest with bullish candles, indicating that people are respecting and accepting the upward price movement. However, on the futures side, more shorts are being opened, which is unusual. The increase in shorts could be due to funding differences, where longs pay the shorts.

On a weekly basis, the majority of coins are in a neutral area and moving upward after a fall. Therefore, I will look for potential altcoin entries and reduce BTC exposure for now.

We experienced one short squeeze at $102,801 and multiple long squeezes in the range of 96k-100k.
We are at a 76% greed level and waiting for extreme greed.

We are slowly moving toward a bubble, but it's still a long run.

Let's see what happens. I believe we are now at a critical level at the 101k high support/resistance zone. In the next few weeks, miners should start selling some mined bitcoins. BlackRock is not involved on a large scale, but net flow is positive.

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Potential play out based on Elliot wave and S/R and POC '

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we are moving towards my prediction

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Coinglass data pointing towards same direction

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I am long now!

The Analysis: Elliot wave + fib

Tgt: 118k

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I have increased my position at the Fib

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I am adding more to the position

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I have increased my position and we are heading towards 94k

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