BitcoinLong
BTC - Bullish Cycle or Still in a Corrective One- Key Levels
Updated
After taking a second swing trade on the 5th of February, our final target was hit last night at 48k. The question: Is this the end of the run or do we get another leg higher. Well that I do not have the answer to, but I am looking at some key levels in the interim.
Whether this is completion of a 3rd wave of a broader 5th wave is not crystal clear here. Though we did push through 45k which is the key level in determining a bullish swing is in place, it came on the back of the Tesla news, so technically yes one would consider we are in the final phase of a bullish cycle in the midterm, but not so fast my friends.
The key area to confirm this is part of a bullish 5th wave cycle is holding the 38-40k area.
Though 45k is the level I would consider a fake-out if the market fails to follow through, this is a general area not a precise number. What we are doing is looking for evidence, and there are some key levels that will provide the clues in determining whether we are still in a corrective cycle, or in the final leg of a bullish one (mid term).
As mentioned above, 45k is the main level of importance in determining an extended "B" leg or wave 3 of the interim cycle.
IF the market is strong 42k should hold here providing a bullish swing into the 50-55k area.
IF the market consolidates above 45k, and it fails to take it out (close below and continuation for the inevitable troll that will say "it hit 44,300 and you said 45k needs to hold") I think 60k or higher is a reasonable top for this cycle.
IF we get a pullback into the 38-40k area, looking more at the 45-50k for a top of this cycle.
Takes out 3520, looking for a retest of the lows and also for a more aggressive swing and position trade for the next bullish leg higher.
So the game plan is sit patiently and let the market provide evidence of strength. We recently issued three trades, one hit both targets, the other hit two of three and the last alt trade hit T1. Target levels were chosen to remove risk as the market pushed higher, not an attempt to squeeze every bit of juice out of the orange.
So until the market provides an opportunity we are not going to rush to take another trade. We still have some risk and we do not want to be adding to it at highs. The best and most conservative thing to do is to be patient and wait for an opportunity, not force trades at this point.
Don't want to take the money we made in the recent trades and turn it into chopped lettuce! Patience Patience Patience, which few have, generally leads to success over the FOMO, Greed, and emotions that dictate so many in their trading.
Also probably going to get barraged with a bunch of Neubie Artist showing off their chart art. Let's appreciate the art projects and give them some grades in the comments ;).
Whether this is completion of a 3rd wave of a broader 5th wave is not crystal clear here. Though we did push through 45k which is the key level in determining a bullish swing is in place, it came on the back of the Tesla news, so technically yes one would consider we are in the final phase of a bullish cycle in the midterm, but not so fast my friends.
The key area to confirm this is part of a bullish 5th wave cycle is holding the 38-40k area.
Though 45k is the level I would consider a fake-out if the market fails to follow through, this is a general area not a precise number. What we are doing is looking for evidence, and there are some key levels that will provide the clues in determining whether we are still in a corrective cycle, or in the final leg of a bullish one (mid term).
As mentioned above, 45k is the main level of importance in determining an extended "B" leg or wave 3 of the interim cycle.
IF the market is strong 42k should hold here providing a bullish swing into the 50-55k area.
IF the market consolidates above 45k, and it fails to take it out (close below and continuation for the inevitable troll that will say "it hit 44,300 and you said 45k needs to hold") I think 60k or higher is a reasonable top for this cycle.
IF we get a pullback into the 38-40k area, looking more at the 45-50k for a top of this cycle.
Takes out 3520, looking for a retest of the lows and also for a more aggressive swing and position trade for the next bullish leg higher.
So the game plan is sit patiently and let the market provide evidence of strength. We recently issued three trades, one hit both targets, the other hit two of three and the last alt trade hit T1. Target levels were chosen to remove risk as the market pushed higher, not an attempt to squeeze every bit of juice out of the orange.
So until the market provides an opportunity we are not going to rush to take another trade. We still have some risk and we do not want to be adding to it at highs. The best and most conservative thing to do is to be patient and wait for an opportunity, not force trades at this point.
Don't want to take the money we made in the recent trades and turn it into chopped lettuce! Patience Patience Patience, which few have, generally leads to success over the FOMO, Greed, and emotions that dictate so many in their trading.
Also probably going to get barraged with a bunch of Neubie Artist showing off their chart art. Let's appreciate the art projects and give them some grades in the comments ;).
Note
Also I was a little off on my Super Bowl Prediction ;). Kansas City was schooled and I do not want to hear it was the Referee's that cost the game. Mahomes was clearly shaken by the TB Defense, Tom Brady showed why he IS the greatest QB of all time. Well KC fans, there is next year ;)
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