The 1.618 Fibonacci extension at approximately $78,600 on the medium-term timeframe (weekly) appears to be providing strong support. On the long-term logarithmic chart, BTC has now entered the lower boundary of the Schiff Pitchfork, historically a key reversal zone. This suggests a solid entry point, with an initial rebound toward $90,000 or higher within the next 2–3 weeks.
That said, market movements remain uncertain—especially as the Fisher Transform indicator has yet to dip into the -3 to -4 range, which would further improve the odds of a sharp rebound in the near term. However, if this is indeed a third wave of an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle (years to decades), I expect BTC to hold above its November 2021 high (~$68,000) without major retracement.
As long as this level holds, my outlook remains bullish, with a potential rally toward $250,000+ before a significant correction back to the $90,000–$120,000 range, consistent with past market cycles.
Stay patient and trade wisely—good luck!
For Bitcoiners:
TP: What’s that? We HODL.
SL: Buy the dip! 🚀
For Traders:
TP: $89,000 – $91,000
SL: $76,500 (though, be aware of a daily wick to the downside, which could break through this level before going back up within minutes)
That said, market movements remain uncertain—especially as the Fisher Transform indicator has yet to dip into the -3 to -4 range, which would further improve the odds of a sharp rebound in the near term. However, if this is indeed a third wave of an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle (years to decades), I expect BTC to hold above its November 2021 high (~$68,000) without major retracement.
As long as this level holds, my outlook remains bullish, with a potential rally toward $250,000+ before a significant correction back to the $90,000–$120,000 range, consistent with past market cycles.
Stay patient and trade wisely—good luck!
For Bitcoiners:
TP: What’s that? We HODL.
SL: Buy the dip! 🚀
For Traders:
TP: $89,000 – $91,000
SL: $76,500 (though, be aware of a daily wick to the downside, which could break through this level before going back up within minutes)
Trade active
Detailed Elliott Wave AnalysisI previously mentioned that I don’t expect BTC to dip below its November 2021 high (~$68,000). However, in Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 of a smaller-degree wave (the current wave from December 2024 to now) within a larger-degree Wave 1 (since November 2022) can overlap with Wave 4 of an even larger-degree wave (from BTC’s inception until November 2021).
This means that while I currently expect BTC to hold above $68,000, a retracement below this level would not necessarily invalidate the broader uptrend based on Elliott Wave principles. For now, I do not anticipate such a retracement in the next few weeks.
However, I currently view this wave as Wave B, which suggests that a Wave C should follow. The depth of this retracement remains uncertain, as it can only be measured once Wave B fully develops.
As a result, in the next 2–3 months, there is a possibility that BTC could dip below its November 2021 high (~$68,000).
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.