(As of April 30, 2025 – BTC/USD 4H)
Thesis
Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend and currently consolidating in a tight, sideways range above the 21 EMA, within a broader bullish structure. The price is showing respect for the cloud and remains supported by stacked EMAs.
The TTM Squeeze is in a compression phase, suggesting that volatility is coiled and may soon release. Given the strength of the prior move and lack of heavy selling volume, the setup favors a continuation higher.
The left chart (Keltner Channels) shows measured expansion targets of +2 to +3 ATR, offering a high-reward scenario if the trend resumes.
Entry
Entry Zone: Around or slightly above the 21 EMA while price holds the consolidation range
Optional scale-in if price dips slightly but holds above cloud midline or -1 ATR
Stop / Invalidation
Primary Invalidation: 4H candle close below the 21 EMA
Hard Stop: Break and close below -1 ATR or VWAP/Cloud cluster breakdown
Targeting
Target 1 (2 ATR): ~96.5–97.0K (based on upper Keltner Channel range)
Target 2 (3 ATR): ~98.0–99.0K if momentum accelerates
Optional trail remainder using higher lows or moving stop up with EMA cloud
Additional Notes
Volume profile remains supportive; no major signs of distribution
4H structure remains bullish while price stays above the 21 EMA
Expect compression to resolve soon — watch for volume to confirm breakout
Optional scale-up on squeeze fire confirmation
Summary
This is a trend continuation play with strong structure, clean risk, and asymmetric reward.
The entry is near the 21 EMA with clear invalidation and expansion targets defined by Keltner Channel volatility bands.
It reflects ideal Playbook criteria: trend, structure, momentum, compression, and clarity of risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.