BITCOIN PRICE VS MACD Fractals Comparison (Past 2 Bullruns)
Updated
This weekly-chart of BTC represents how previous rallies were followed by deeper corrections all the while comparing them with MACD. We'll notice some similar price movements, fake-outs and then breakouts.
(i) The cycle starts after making an ATH by a big and strong impulse during the bull market, subsequently there's always a major pullback, hence a Bear Market. After this pullback there comes a significant upside move which causes some undeveloped signals leading to FAKEOUTS (in white ellipse) which makes it look like the end of the bear market but only cause potential losses.
(ii) At the same time the MACD signals the "almost" crossovers which aligns with the bullish price action after a pullback leading us to believe a genuine breakout which later turns out as a FAKEOUT but if we look below the baseline (0 value in MACD) at -0.21 whenever there's a bullish crossover it acts as the beginning of next BIG MOVE and an actual BREAKOUT.
(iii) After the BREAKOUT (white diagonal rectangle) there comes the next phase, another big rally with more new market participants, much higher volumes which historically elevates the price in a PARABOLIC way taking prices beyond the previous ATH towards a new ATH (CRAZY MARKETS = CRAZY RETURNS) and eventually to an end of the rampant speculation.
(iv) And so the cycle repeats.
which brings us back to the current scenario that is half-way across the cycle meaning we are nearing the fake-out zone and we must stay awared and avoid getting trapped in the short squeeze or bull trap. Factually, the price should act accordingly; nevertheless, we know how BTC has never ceased to surprise us in the past. Let's just observe for now and not rush getting trades.
P.S - Too much info on the chart, for simple understanding just focus on the MACD crossovers and Price breakouts.
CryptoCuriousOfficial 📥
(i) The cycle starts after making an ATH by a big and strong impulse during the bull market, subsequently there's always a major pullback, hence a Bear Market. After this pullback there comes a significant upside move which causes some undeveloped signals leading to FAKEOUTS (in white ellipse) which makes it look like the end of the bear market but only cause potential losses.
(ii) At the same time the MACD signals the "almost" crossovers which aligns with the bullish price action after a pullback leading us to believe a genuine breakout which later turns out as a FAKEOUT but if we look below the baseline (0 value in MACD) at -0.21 whenever there's a bullish crossover it acts as the beginning of next BIG MOVE and an actual BREAKOUT.
(iii) After the BREAKOUT (white diagonal rectangle) there comes the next phase, another big rally with more new market participants, much higher volumes which historically elevates the price in a PARABOLIC way taking prices beyond the previous ATH towards a new ATH (CRAZY MARKETS = CRAZY RETURNS) and eventually to an end of the rampant speculation.
(iv) And so the cycle repeats.
which brings us back to the current scenario that is half-way across the cycle meaning we are nearing the fake-out zone and we must stay awared and avoid getting trapped in the short squeeze or bull trap. Factually, the price should act accordingly; nevertheless, we know how BTC has never ceased to surprise us in the past. Let's just observe for now and not rush getting trades.
P.S - Too much info on the chart, for simple understanding just focus on the MACD crossovers and Price breakouts.
CryptoCuriousOfficial 📥
Note
It is a breakout. It sliced right past the downward trendline.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.