Short

159% - Thank you, I'm out / Bitcoin Daily TF

Updated

First of all, don't get me wrong - I am a VERY long time HODLer, bought BTC for the first time in October 2015 for 245$ each. However I am also a market trader and I can spot some things in the chart, one of those things are divergence & convergence.

Back in November 2018 I spotted convergence in BTC price and RSI and was pretty sure we're about to go up. Market buy, roughly, 6 months later sitting at almost 160% I spot the same pattern which is this time telling me we're about to go down (divergence). We also had purple resistance trendline back in 2018, we have support trendline now which is ugly but effective and if broken will completely confirm the mid-term trend. I know for a fact that summer is period of stagnation in Crypto and also Forex markets, people spending money on vacations - hence selling BTC to fund those and all of those things are telling me we are about to go lower. In Nov 2018 we needed 22 candles on Daily TF to start counter trend, we have 16 candles now in the pattern, will price go up now, maybe yes up to 9.2k but that is max I see for now.

Now, you may ask where to is BTC going in next couple of months. My best target would be 61.8 fibb of the move up, which will be around 5.5K (this depends on the highest point in this rally), when we start downtrend we will know for a fact.

Things drawn in the chart are pretty simple and you should be able to spot them as well. Let me know what you all guys think about this. Just as a notice I am not a bear on long term, just until September I believe, in September we're about to start new rally to the ATHs (I can almost guarantee that to you).

Bless you all and safe trading.

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It all comes down to $8200, if it doesn't hold as support, then we will go lower for sure. Also if we've seen the TOP today, look how 61.8fibb perfectly aligns with our S/R zone at around 5.4k

Time will tell.

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$8200 not holding so far, let's see how Daily closes. IF we see a close below that level, we should see price going even lower.

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So remember that I wrote last time we needed 22 candles to start the counter trend. We have the same amount of candles again and we had Evening Doji candle on weekly close which is really bearish. This week we should see drop in BTC price. Especially if we go below 8000 mark.

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Drop has begun. We broke $8200 and $8000 and continued lower. The important candle will be weekly close. If we see further drop weekly will close as Significant bearish engulfing candle suggesting that bears completely took control over the market.

Next important support is 7000ish, if we reach that level and break it, a lot of retailers will enter FUD mode and panic sell, which leads us $6000 mark which is extremely important psychological level. At that level a LOT of people will place buy orders and try to catch another leg up, but IMO, whales will use this and try to go for a stop hunt which could lead to price quickly dropping to $5400 which is strong Support/Resistance area and also 61.8 fibb retracement level of the last bull run. This is also the area where we should start looking for bullish clues and possibly start buying.

Don't get me wrong, $6000 could hold but it would be TOO OBVIOUS and this is not how market works.

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This is the weekly I am talking about. If it closes below the wick of second to last week - $7436.4 things could be really nasty.

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Was waiting for the Daily close before posting, seems that support trendline has now been retested together with previous support zone of 8.150-8.200ish. I see that next time we touch 8.500ish area we will go through it and rain down towards 7k/6.9k

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Weekly closed as significant bearish candle, indicating sellers taking control over the market. I got one question about Weekly not closing below pointed level $7436.4 - closing below would be one more positive indicator for the downside, but it's not really crucial.

In terms of what happens next - we could see one more push towards 8k (or even $8.200 but I doubt that) and then drop all the way down to 6800ish area by the end of the week.

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What a week :O I wasn't expecting this kind of push at all.

First of all, let's talk about weekly close, there we have 2 scenarios :

1. Weekly closes above 9k creates bullish engulfing candle - Weekly closing above 9k will boost FOMO buyers. Although in price action valid engulfing candle needs at least 3 previous candles to be in the opposite direction. Hence, this is not valid bullish engulfing.

2. We see drop during the day and weekly closes below 8.8k levels - this will make a super wick and sellers will just jump in taking the price lower.

IMO, scenario 1 is more likely so we will analyze it. As stated above, FOMO will be boosted, however there is extremely strong resistance at 9.7k-10k area. It will make sense that we touch this area and have a swift pullback, slaughtering every FOMO buyer from 8k and above. Anyway, BTC is currently in NO MANS LAND and any trades taken here are pure gambling (for me). Market is way to transfer money from impatient to patient players, so carefully wait for the important zones to be reached before entering a trade.

At this moment I would like to see BTC going up to 9.9-10k ISH area - creating some kind of double top formation or giving us any pattern that we can recognize on lower TF and decide if it is reasonable to short it. Other scenario is that we just see the drop from this area break 8.2k and retest it once for good before going down.

On the flip side, if BTC breaches 10k and holds above - well start buying up until next resistance zones - that we will cover in next updates tho.

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So, as of now we are waiting patiently. $8200-8500 area will be the biggest indicator for us about what is going to happen next. We simply need to wait for the pullback to that area and there we will have a clue if we are going up or down (like I drawn in the chart).

If that area along with the supportive TrendLine holds as support we will see next push towards 10k. If we see break and retest it will indicate that we're going further down.

Also if we push first to 10k I would be patient there as well. It is insane resistance area, people will be taking profits it will be insanely manipulated region. I am 99% certain that either we see bearish pattern and it traps the bears or it breaks to 10.500 and traps the bulls. Whichever scenario happens I will sit back and wait - I would rather miss 1 trade and wait for some kind of confirmation than try to predict the future/market.

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3 times BTC showed us the same PA on weekly. 1 time Bullish candle engulfed previous candle's wick and we saw a push of 10k. Other 2 times it did not engulf previous wick and we had a slump. The same thing is happening again.

This weekly close will be very important and we should be watching it for definite clues about BTC for the rest of the year.

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Also, this is something I would call "BTC and it's double tops" - 1 more confluence factor for me that we will be indeed going down. Look double tops so far, every single time 2nd high was higher than 1st one for obvious reason of trapping people in.

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1 of the reasons why this 9600 area could be the top for now is because 61.8 fib perfectly aligns with very strong 5600 area which was never retested when broken above.

Also, we are getting close to the parabolic curve once again (blue line). During this bull run we touched it couple of times and I know for a fact that it can not hold forever. Once broken we will have a waterfall here.

The market is not balanced now, it really needs correction in order to continue steady growth. All this media pumping is not healthy growth in my opinion so this is why my bias is not changed even tho we're setting new highs for the year.

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We saw a really nice push in BTC in last week, really good. However, there is still a need for a pullback/correction in order to continue higher. Now with new top at $11.230 when we pull the fibs, it all finally makes sense in this scenario.

38.2% at $8200 zone
50% at $7200 zone
61.8% at $6300 zone
78.6% at $4900 zone

IF price breaks first point of support contact around $10200 (parabolic support + latest H4 support) we should be heading towards 8900ish. If $8900 doesn't hold, next HUGE confluence zone is our 38.2% fib zone at $8200 - THIS WILL BE MAKE OR BREAK TIME - if that level holds we will see next surge in BTC price towards 13-15k area. If however it doesn't hold I am pretty confident that next stop is 61.8% zone at $6300 which should be final support.

Let's see how it unfolds :)

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On lower TF, we are ranging between $10500 and 11200ish

H1 close and hold in next candle below $10500 would signal that price could be going back in 9000s

H1 close and hold in next candle above $11200-300 would give way towards $11600 or $12200

At this current state I would rather see push towards $11600 before the pullback, but anything can happen. Pullback regions still in play are $9300 and $9000. If they don't hold next in line is $8200-8400 (this is at the moment most important zone we have on the charts and it will give us more info about where BTC is heading for the rest of the year).

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SHORT TERM :

So we will either see or 9.9k

aligns with extended target, 9.9k aligns with parabolic support and H4 EMA50. Both targets need to breach significant zones, towards the upside 11.6k extremely important resistance zone, towards downside 10.5k support holding last couple of days.

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We've been talking about magical money called USDT and look at the volume. USDT has overtaken USD volume.

This is just telling us that we're pumping BTC price without REAL money being introduced into the market. This kind of growth is unsustainable. We are in a bubble of delusion at the moment.

As soon as those key players using USDT are done filling their own pockets we could see insane drop and this manipulation is really bad for the complete Crypto industry.

Please be careful in next few weeks when it comes to BTC price, if you are unsure - just don't trade it.

Levels to keep in consideration are following :

Upside :
$11.600
$12.000
$13.600
$16.500

Downside :
$10.500
$9.900
$8.900
$8.200-400
$6.300
$3.000

All of the levels possible by the end of the year.

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For the previous update : Red line in volume is USDT, Blue line is USD

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Magical Money called USDT and Bakkt Futures - THEORY!

I just created another idea about the USDT Theory I had in mind as I wanted to keep this one technical only with actual charts in it :)

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Chart above shows important resistance levels and I will break them down along with what should we expect in the market next.

$13.600 mentioned couple of days ago - touched and bang drop of almost 2k. So what is next.

Well $11.600 is very significant level now and all eyes should be on Weekly. If we continue going down towards the end of the week and we close weekly below $11.600 with huge wick all the way up towards $13.600 it should signal further price drop towards the likes of $9.900.

On the other hand, if $11.600 on lower TFs like H4 and Daily starts holding as support then we should be watching $13.600 again for double top formation, but we should also expect the push towards $16.500 area.

$16.500 is EXTREMELY important zone and if reached it should be make or break time for BTC. If broken we will see push towards ATH, then drop to $16.500 then push towards new ATH at around $22.000. If it, however holds then we can expect deep correction all the way down to $6.000.

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As soon as we broke $11.600 we saw a drop below $11.000 - Weekly now turning red, can we sustain here or will we see a bounce back from the likes of $10.500?

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Also if we close Daily anywhere below $11.600 this is one hell of a bearish engulfing candle guys. I am really not sure what next couple of months will bring...

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So we are lining here with 4 supports :

1. Parabolic curve
2. Important S/R zone
3. Important Range
4. Trendline
5. H4 EMA 50

If we break it, I see we dip to around $9.900, then go back to $11.600 to confirm that we broke everything and further drop towards $8.200 where next important support lies.

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Well at first support didn't break, we saw pullback up towards $12.300 and then break and price did almost the exact thing I draw last week.

Looking at the weekly things get spicy. There is a huge bearish hammer, huge wick worth $3000, denial from 61.8% and 50% retracement levels pulled from the ATH to the swing low. This week will be very important for further developments of BTC price. If we see red week and price dipping below $8.900, $8.400 and $8.200 we could see bearish Q3 and price going down all the way to the $6.000

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If we indeed go lower, we could see again couple of months of ranging between $6.000 and $8.000, or even longer up until May 2020 when halving occurs.

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Possible pullback zones for continuation of downtrend. 61.8% at around $12.300 which is very important zone and after that 76.8% at around $13.000.

In my opinion, $13.000 will be the top of this pullback before continuation below $10.000 and to the likes of $8.200-400.

If we, however, see $13.000 and $13.600 broken it will give way for $16.500, but I really don't see it happening at the moment.

Keep in mind that we're not ultimate bears, it's just that we will need to see the push lower towards 8k for more accumulation and push beyond ATHs.

CAPITAL_Trading

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