Yesterday's close was higher than the Fib0.618=6464 retracement level indicating that the recent sell-off (5H - 4 Blk Cows + Downside Gap three methods) could be a correction which is also supported by PVT hidden bullish divergence on 1D that I can't weight much since the drop was abrupt (noise). The immediate resistance zone 6600-6800 is as strong as the 6K is and both need a healthy volume to B/O. Presently an ease-of-moment forming with a rising wedge (Vol reducing from 80K to 25K). Chart: invst.ly/8jmuo... With an active short (Last TPs=6180-6200), I'm looking forward to two breakout points for coming weekend / week. (A) Bullish B/O: 6800 - Supported by 1W Upside Gap Three Methods (Jul 30) - recent H/L Fib0.618=6464 & PVT hidden divergence as long as 6150-5800 holds. (B) Bearish B/O (much known to everyone): Overall Lower Highs setup - descending triangle, and recent sell-off to B/O 6K such that the Weekly closes below 5800.
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The fourth red day covers my shorts (TPs=6180-6200 hit and filled). Today's drop was on an average volume and bears are trying to initiate a panic sell situation while the MC is nearing 100B psychological level. 5H started diverging while it may continue to do so while BTC may show a slight touch to 5.8k-6.0k. A lot depends on whether BTC can manage to close the Weekly below support. Thus, I remain idle and wait for the B/O points mentioned earlier. Active Trades: NoneNote
Past week is now considered as engulfing bearish with 4-red days. With overbought (%R=-85, STOCH=14,STOCHRSI=6) conditions and momentum slightly channeling-up (RSI=39), BTC can still pullback to the 6600-6800 area - a sort of weak buy signal (current bounce from Fib0.786=6206). On the other hand, price-volume are putting a hidden bullish (Higher Low and Lower Low) divergence pattern, which should not be ignored as well (first test of Fib=0.618=6464). Interestingly, past weekly Closes (6152, 6250, 6232, 6185) put forward a decent support level at 6200 with an extension to 5877 (previously wicky - EMA100). It will be a bearish milestone to close the weekly below 6K, which has not been achieved. I am calmly wait for either B/O: 6800 / 5800 explained on last Friday, Sep-07. Active Trades: NoneNote
BTC is forming a bearish pennant on 5H with a downward extension -11% (5607) if successful. Notably, BTC neither wiped-out full gains yet nor closed below 6K on weekly, which remains a bearish milestone. Alongside, 1D continues to put HL/LL hidden bullish divergence against price-volume trend as indicated yesterday. On last occasion, such a divergence yielded +20%. In general, since June 24 low, BTC is back testing (5762, 5879, 6130) over a descending triangle from Dec Peak. Often is the case (30% chance) that such a repeated test builds a floor despite the bearish nature of triangle, which we shall see soon (perhaps mid Oct). I remain uninterested to trade within 5800-6800 zone and await for a high volume break-out in either direction to confirm the trend strength for the next few months. My general sentiment remains the same i.e. full-time bearish below 6K but mostly bullish above 6https://K....https://invst.ly/8kq2nNote
invst.ly/8kq2nNote
The alts market dropping down to $78B while BTC increasing dominance to 58% from Jan low (32%). Notably, BTC always goes back to 10K volume when it hits the provisional bottom 6K, which is meant to be broken in panic sell situations. People do expect BTC to behave exactly like alts (such as ETH), which sounds logical as counter trading often goes in a loss. The situation that we are seeing now is exactly the opposite of Dec17-Jan18. At that time people were impatiently buying. And now people are impatiently selling. In these situations, the best thing that I can do is to patiently wait for the events such as when the support becomes resistance or when a resistance becomes support. That will not only slow down emotions but will also offer me a direction. Take a good care of yourself and talk soon!Note
BTC successfully backtested (5762, 5879, 6130) over the large descending triangle and developed HL on a lower volume, which is fine since we are within the large extended support zone (5800-6800). Previously, we had already noticed price-volume hidden bullish divergence on Sep 06 & we were seeking 6150 (June 24 volume) to provide some support instead of heading back to 5800. My only concern now is that any trend that supports volume is my friend. Thus, until I see a progressive increase in volume to define the trend strength (& B/O 6800/5800), I will remain idle and my waiting clock will keep on ticking. Having said that any thing that happens within 5800-6800 zone is ignored. Importantly, divergences on 1D are more important here than TIs. GL!Note
Here is the TV chart with hidden bullish divergence - continuation trend. If this holds, BTC will capitalize the M/DC (EMA20).Note
BTC channel-up on 5H trading above EMA50=6508 rejecting bearish engulf and may test daily EMA50=6745 which is just under M/DC=6770. Vol is below par & BTC is recovering from the bottom (Higher Lows and Lower Highs setup), thus a sluggish pace. Daily looks promising though (RSI=47; FT=bullish; MACD=-110 nearing a bullish X). Whereas the Vol Osc are on a HL setup. I patiently wait for a trend confirmation post 6800 (B/O or rejection) to react accordingly. Please note that since Jun 24 Doji, we have a higher low setup, and BTC has back-tested 6150 twice + Monthly Stoch(7) is oversold. My next swing zone (34) is until Oct 19. Here comes my updated Jun-Aug chart with all noted https://divergences...https://invst.ly/8m0m4. It is very important when we are at a key support level we look at both angles. Typical reversals do several back-tests, which can last for months. So far, BTC has not broken Jun 24 setup (close the weekly below support).Note
invst.ly/8m0m4Note
BTC is trading sideways (6593-6385) as per 5H (FT leg down, RSI=56, VO=declining) whereas 1D closes Bearish Doji yesterday with channel-up (RSI=46, FT=leg-up, and MACD=-108 approaching a bullish cross). Volume drops below 10K, which is a strong indication of a big move ahead 10K-20K. As long as we remain with 5800-6800 support zone, I remain idle and ignore these mixed signals. Overall, we are in a HL setup since June (Jul 1W Upside Gap Three Methods) with a descending triangle and a flat bottom (1W flat MACD=-522 above signal line).Note
BTC is in a stalemate position (6355-6593) with a low volume (5K) approximating Sep 2016 lows while approaching the edge of this 2018 long descending triangle (mid Oct), a strong indication of possible reversal ahead to develop a lower high first i.e. B/O of the last high. Whether that trend will be strong enough or sustainable, we shall see. Since Jun 24 Doji, we kept on receiving several divergences on daily along with Monthly STOCH(7) in oversold territory are all supporting arguments. The upside limit of descending triangles are insane (13K) and 1/3 of that move makes 8K. Similarly, the rejection / downside limits are also awkward i.e. below 1K and 1/3 of that move makes 4K which is just under 78% key retracement level for crypto world. I remain idle until a B/O of either 5800 or 6800 happens. Meanwhile scalping ETH (range: 223 - 207), which is nearing the end this consolidation.Note
Still a strong 5H divergence - let us see how much sellers are in-control in the following 3-4 5H sessions. The drop has approximated the consolidation triangle. Now it is all up to panic sellers / bad news to break the support which needs a healthy volume 40https://K-50K...https://invst.ly/8mzcn....For now I see it as an intra-day thing/noise and will scalp around 6220-6380 due to a bit increase in volatility. For any major short/long, I will continue to wait for B/O 5800/6800.Note
invst.ly/8mzhjNote
BTC update: It has developed a higher low 6205 above 6130 early support with minor gains and 5H hidden divergence against price-momentum and price-volume. RSI as well as other indicators are finding support while the total MC remains above 100B. Despite alts piano (flush 13B), 200B MC couldn't be breached until today, which sounds like a resistance for now. I am pretty sure now that the descending triangle (from ATH) is approaching to its end and we shall see a B/O (5800/6800) in due time. So far my waiting time extends to 86-days since June 24 Doji (close 6148), which has not been broken yet. If BTC can't close the weekly below 6K (until next Fib time zone), I'll consider support holds. Patiently waiting for the next possible prolong trend as per Fibonacci time extension (Oct - Mar).Note
BTC - (9K volume shrinks) So far it is an alts season, CMC recovering back to 200B. Bitcoin season will come since we are holding the price-volume divergence since 3-months. Thus, a pilot long is added to benchmark a trade and follow the trend. TP=6770, SL=6130. Note that we are under a high-risk situation so anything can happen but I my approach remains data & market driven. We shall see!Note
BTC: TP=6770 hit while it gains +4.5% following the alts eliminating all risks under. Note that the daily has just entered in a strong buyers zone (RSI=55; FT=0.05) with 7-months strong STOCH=18 easing off from sellers area. The market cap gains 30B and is now at 221. This suggests a next target of 250B while BTC will target the last evident high. In these situations you do not get a major pullback. I will be careful around 7000 psychological level. Nevertheless, BTC was a buy yesterday and is a buy today: TP=7311 (just under Fib ext 2.618). I won't plan a short until I observe a strong negative divergence on daily against momentum indicators or volume. Post 6800, that level can be between the zone 7600-8200 (within past 7777 R).Note
This was my pilot long to get into the trendNote
Hourly neg outlook pressing the higher low - lower low div with daily buy pressure (1H oversold STOCH, while 5H under bearish channel down). BTC is nicely following the Fibs, rejected from 0.382(6808 - profit-taking level that every one was aiming from the recent low). Thus a first rejection. I see this a standard correction. Keep an eye on upward extension and perhaps staying long is profitable All BTC has to do is to hold the last consolidation (6585) as support. Active Trade: Long, TP=TP=7311....invst.ly/8oor9....Note
Updated chart for local https://support...https://www.tradingview.com/x/fk5gqlmO/.... If holds above, 7K will arrive.Note
5H bearish outlook with momentum leg down (RSI=59, STOCH=68, FT=0.02), while the shallow pullback from the top (6840) is of a low volume, which is a false sell signal (e.g. yesterday's wick to 6502). Since 5H is expecting a sell pressure on a flat consolidation, I trust M/DC=6476 or Fib 0.618=6401 to provide some support on a shorter timeframe. Daily is the main trade, which which channels up with HL setup (RSI=53, STOCH=86, FT=1) and a harmonized bullish trend (ADX=18). Up trending positively converging MACD=-28 should exert some buying pressure in coming 2-3 days. Active trade (TP=7311) remains open until I see a clear trend weakness on daily to flip the trade and sell the top (bearish continuation from lower high).Note
Today's aggressive move completes 3-black cows and the price pulls back to my expected Fib level i.e. 0.618=6401 (today's low so far 6369.4). The net shorts have been decreased since the price approaches the end of consolidation triangle or the support yet another time. I wonder if 11-red days momentum could not break the support will these low volume pullbacks do any harm. We certainly need a high volume to break the support when I turn actually bearish (below 6K) since the descending triangle breaks. Nevertheless, I hold my position and will re-buy if this level consolidates for few days or BTC tests 6130 or below.Note
BTC maintains HL with double bottom RSI on 5H setup on a channel up since June 24, 2018 with amid lower highs. Because of 5H engulfing move FT=bullish (hidden bullish div). Daily is neutral post sucessive standard corrections (RSI=46, STOCH=68, MACD=-6, BBP=-228). With volatility to be low i.e. ATR=$201. Every time, we approach the support, the trading volume nears 10K suggesting equal buying/selling pressure. Sells are waiting for the top to develop, while the buyers are waiting for the price to get closer to the support again so that they trade within the support zone 5800-6800 & others wait. invst.ly/8prgt. Averging out buys here. Active trades=Long, TP1=7311, extension & SL aren't decided yet.Note
Double Top @6800 with 5H bearish outlook (neg div) on a rising 1D channel. We have W-bottom and M-top in this internal triangle, which is at the verge of its completion. Recalling that we are still trading in a neutral support zone i.e. 5800-6800 so anything that happens inside is an intra-triangular trade (noise), which is reducing its range. All BTC has to do is to maintain the HL setup with an immediate support under, 6570 (Fib0.786) and ultimate extension down to 6398 (Fib0.618) relative to Jun-July Highs/Lows. My trade is daily (TP=7311), which is holding well just above RSI=51. Thus, I will take an advantage of these hourly pullbacks to further average out my longs while it is maintaining the triangular https://setup...https://invst.ly/8qm4-...Note
Chart - invst.ly/8qm4-Note
Q4 Pattern:We enter in Q4 with a solid floor defined by descending triangle (Bearish drawing on charts) and Bullish's drawing i.e. regular bullish (Feb - Jun)+hidden bullish divergence (Jun - end Q3). In my books June 24 defined this shift in bearish paradigm and overlooked higher lows are perhaps the leading trends. Even if BTC wicks down to 6200-5800 to implant a confusing pattern, a HIGHER HIGH is quite likely to happen. The set floor only breaks when such a HIGHER HIGH fails to put a rally ahead since by that time BTC will have gained enough momentum to counter trade and fall below the support. Again, unexpected events such as an exchange forced to shut down, or rumors or fake news aren't included in such an assessment. Good luck!
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Post double top at 6800, BTC maintains the Higher Low setup while edging the end of triangle (1D Neutral, 5H Neutral). It continues to follow Fib levels and finds support just above Fib0.618=6398.1, which is progressively rising from the June 24 low (5762), which is 3-months support now. I still give it a high chance that BTC will print a Higher High in coming weeks/month, when I will reassess the situation. I remain bullish above 6K with TP=7311 remains https://unaltered..https://invst.ly/8s6vb..Note
invst.ly/8s6vbNote
Can't add much to this consolidation but I recall that for the past six months, the bottoms are different than the tops, which follow the oscillators. Yearly low volatility (Daily ADX=9.7; ATR=192) and these buying pressures at 6K continuously putting bullish divergences are indicating a possible trend reversal. Some of the simple reasons that kept me bullish above 6K provisional bottom. Enjoy your weekend and the next swing zone (18th of Oct +/- 3-days since we are now at an extended time zone) for a much longer trend in terms of time. invst.ly/8snjy ; No change in trend, so no change in plans (TP=7311).Note
Past Week Doji with a gap (future possibilities: abandon baby or morning doji or another doji around 6500) has indicated an intermediate break-out ranges (6666 for UP and 6428 for Down) within the large support zone i.e. 5800-6800. My time prediction (Fib swing zone) was around Oct 18, which so far played out nicely since June 23 and until today no major damage has been done unless you see it from 20K. When you visualize these zones on weekly time-frame, you can see that the market has been respecting these swing zones the entire 2018, thus assiting as an early alter for any future reversal around these zones. invst.ly/8t38x My general sentiment & plan remain unchanged. Good luck!Note
Yesterday's aggressive move with gap-up (6646-6656) made first attempt to test the double top (6826) above 6666 (Weekly Doji) with a nearly bearish shooting star on 5H. The small lower shadow indicates that the bears couldn't cover the gap & they are looking forward to it. Hourly does support a re-test of the former inner consolidation range and the gap (6612-6639). Overall, I see it as an upside extension of the inner consolidation (6646-6718) within the broad support zone (5800-6800) for a while before the market indecision is over. Note that 1D (over M/DC) remain neutral on most of the TIs. I won't mind seeing another Doji on weekly for an extended consolidation indicated yesterday (abandon baby or morning doji are my expectation unless an +/- engulfing move occurs) since it will clarify the direction which is further supported by regular and hidden divergences on higher time-frames i.e. Daily and Weekly. Active Trade: Long, TP1=7311, extended targets will be mentioned in due time.Note
13B dump in just 2 hours on CMC to initiate a panic sell-off and break the support. BTC has approached a major and final test of the two major lows i.e. 6130 & 5762. Break-down & weekly close below 6K will be a long term bearish trend at least until 2019-20. If it rebounds here (about 7th attempt), it will be perhaps the last back-test of the floor. Patiently waiting with existing positions & will only flip the trade if and only if weekly closes below the major support. GL!Note
TP=7311 Hit. Hidden bullish divergence against volume held and BTC rebounded from the recent low. My final backtest confirmation. If BTC breaks 7500, the upside extended targets are 8200 & 9200 confirming my Higher High synthesis and if that fails then we break the support otherwise, upward trend will remain intact. Currently it has been rejected for the first attempt to B/O 7400 and is now back-tested 6800 to develop support. BTC may consolidate here for a while before the next move.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.