Bitcoin - A Wyckoff Cycle Study (Update)
Updated
With the resumption of the correction in the last few days, I thought it was a great time to provide an update to the previous analysis of the Wyckoff Cycle and to focus in on what appears to be Phase B of the Accumulation period.
In this daily chart in the standard scale, you can see that I have adjusted the way-points of the accumulation template to fit with the price action, but I would note, that there is no timing predictability in this, as the implication is that this is the hallmark signature of market manipulation by larger money powers working to their own schedule. With that said, you can still appreciate that the price movement is still following the guidelines of the template reasonably well.
- see wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-method/
I have added two other features to this chart since the original posting, that I summarise for your consideration below:
In this daily chart in the standard scale, you can see that I have adjusted the way-points of the accumulation template to fit with the price action, but I would note, that there is no timing predictability in this, as the implication is that this is the hallmark signature of market manipulation by larger money powers working to their own schedule. With that said, you can still appreciate that the price movement is still following the guidelines of the template reasonably well.
- see wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-method/
I have added two other features to this chart since the original posting, that I summarise for your consideration below:
- the Pitchfork Channel - adapted from TradingShot, it provides an excellent guide for the previous and potentially future trading range, until there is a breakout from the channel that is;
- the Symmetric Triangle - defined the trading pattern for the prior period of consolidation; and
- the Ascending Wedge - conjecture on my part for a possible structure of price recovery
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At this point it appears that we must fall below 30k for the Wyckoff pattern to be respected, and if you have seen my other BTC charts, you will know that I feel that this entire correction is an Elliott Wave 3-3-5 correction and that we are in the 5th wave of that final leg down, which also forecasts that BTC must (should) drop below 30k. Looking at the Fibonacci projections of this last leg down and they have not changed, but they do offer some interesting correspondences to the lines of the Pitchfork Channel that could suggest possible timings if the low is to touch on one of the lines.
It will be interesting indeed, to watch how price moves after (if) it makes a lower low and at what level it drops to.
Note
We have had a significant rebound on BTC that is open to the interpretation that the "ST in Phase B" has occurred without forming a lower low. We can see a classic reversal signal with a Doji followed by a bullish Engulfing Bar. What we need to see now to confirm this, in my opinion, is for this movement to rise above the previous high at $39,490. Until then, I acknowledge that Wyckoff demonstrates a manipulated market, that means moves like these could be untrustworthy.
Note
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