#BTC + Ichimoku Daily Chart History - In the side, Out the top!
Updated
In this trend analysis, I want to show that in the last 4 years, Bitcoin has continually entered into the side of an Ichimoku support/resistance cloud and the majority of the time, it comes out the top of the cloud. This tells us that we will see the current sideways and downward movement actually turn upward and come out on top, somewhere between $11,000 and $11,500 within the next 21 days.
This first image is of the current Ichimoku cloud (RED area). We entered into the side of this cloud, meaning we will come out on top.
I will show, going back in history on the daily charts, all the way back to 2013, where we see this pattern continues to happen the same way. I reviewed this yesterday and I found one instance out of about 15-20 where the pattern breaks down.
Keep in mind, this is only on the 1D chart. 4H and other charts will act slightly different. But 1D Ichimoku charts have at least a 4 year crypto history we can review and verify the probability.
Stay tuned for the next images.
This first image is of the current Ichimoku cloud (RED area). We entered into the side of this cloud, meaning we will come out on top.
I will show, going back in history on the daily charts, all the way back to 2013, where we see this pattern continues to happen the same way. I reviewed this yesterday and I found one instance out of about 15-20 where the pattern breaks down.
Keep in mind, this is only on the 1D chart. 4H and other charts will act slightly different. But 1D Ichimoku charts have at least a 4 year crypto history we can review and verify the probability.
Stay tuned for the next images.
Note
This example is the last time we entered the side and came out the top. It almost looks like we entered the bottom, but in reality, there was downward movement on the edge of the cloud, so I'm calling it a sideways entry point, with exit at the top.Sept 3rd, 2017
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Another example, entering the side (technically) and coming out of the top. Sometimes a top exit or a bottom to top will result in an immediate return through the cloud in the opposite direction. In this case, we had the nearly immediate return and then we recovered inside the cloud (within the support area) and were able to come out the top again to begin the next rally.Feb 17th, 2016
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This is another good example of entering the side of the cloud and coming out the top. Notice the prior drop from $300 before the next rally to $420.Sept 23, 2015
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This example shows us that we entered again, into the side, however, we were forced down and out the bottom, only to build pressure and regain entry and push out the top. I count this as a side entry with top exit.May 10, 2015
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Coinbase history doesn't go back far enough, so I'll switch to another exchange to continue the Ichimoku cloud review from there. Different exchanges have slightly different patterns, but most of the time, they are very close and the probability is similar.Note
Here we see we enter the side and come out the top again (Bitfinex).Feb 14th, 2015
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This one is different. It shows us more entering the bottom, being pushed down shortly after exiting the top. Because the bottom wasn't flat and it wasn't downward facing, it was actually facing upward, so I consider it not a side entry, but a full on bottom entry, so the top exit wouldn't be normal, or at least would not be consistent long term for a rally. This would probably fake me out if we seen it happen today and I would make the wrong call thinking we were about to rally.Nov 12, 2014
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This one shows that the market was very unpredictable at this time. I remember trading these periods and losing most of my coin. We see a bottom entry here, where the bottom isn't flat, it's on an upward movement one day, then it changes 100% the next day to a downward movement, giving the appearance of a side entry. It's not a side entry, it's a bottom entry, coming out the top, in a sideways market, resulting in a slight rally that is kicked back about 3 months later.May 20, 2014
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This is as far back as my Bitcoin history goes. I invested in my first partial Bitcoin when Bitcoin was right around $100. I believe it was early Oct 2013, possibly right around the time of this red dip.Hopefully this gives you some good insight as to what I look at for Ichimoku on 1D charts with crypto. All standard Ichimoku settings (9, 26, 52, 26).
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Compare this to May 10th, 2015.Notice the uptrend length and the downtrend would break at the same time as my curve breaks above 10.6k. I'm not concerned about this drop, even though I lost a nice chunk of my diversified portfolio yesterday.
I believe in Bitcoin and I will wait for it to rise again, cuz you can't kill the Bitcoin.
The news that may hold us down and break this cycle unless you bulls get in there, buy and hodl.
ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/
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Call me crazy.. that's why I wear this tinfoil hat, so your conspiracies of Bitcoin crashing can't mess with my brainwaves.Note
Sell off volume is not terrible. If I was to take a guess here, I'd say most of this sell off is attributed to the Mt. Gox sell off and the majority of crypto holders are holding their BTC until it returns to regular or higher values.Also, comparing recent sell off volume to prior buy volume around the end of last year, we're still not selling extremely heavily. This leads me to believe that the price will likely stabilize and go sideways for a bit, before moving back upward while the Gox sell off continues, allowing Gox to liquidate their BTC.
We also see that in the recent sell off volume, there was a decent spike of buys, which likely happened because people are seeing that we're near the bottom of this phase.
Thinking about it, we either have a large wedge or a massive bullish pennant forming and if we break above this pennant/wedge, then the market could really go crazy.
Based on my chart, it's possible we could break out of this wedge around the end of March (2 weeks) and that will set the stage for some very nice rallies.
That being said, to get to that point, we'll have to gain 25% before we break out.
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On the money?
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And this one?
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