Interesting to see lots of traders excited each time Bitcoin's price is going up, infact, that makes me to know that there are lots of noobs in the crypto space
A quick education if you don't mind..........
Price is not the metric you trade on, the price of an asset or crypto means nothing to a professional trader, what matters and what professional traders look out for is patterns, support and resistannce levels, the indicators, risk-reward ratio, and the probability of price action being tossed in their favour.
That said, back to the charts.............
Bitcoin finally broke out of difficult resistance zones into another high of $7k plus pushing RSI to the upper region.
Right now, Bitcoin seems to have founds support at $100 billion marketcap, which was its reversal point when price hit the yearly low of $5775.
Also when the whole market capitulated, the market cap only retraced to $102 billion without breaking the $100 billion market cap which is a very good one for Bitcoin.
1 Hour— we made a nice consolidation after breaking out of the $6600 and tested the $6800 and then back to the $6600 to the give us our higher low. With a few hours of consolidation around the $6700 area, price was able to break out successfully from the ascending triangle at $6800 resistance area and now challenging the $7000 area giving us our higher high.. I expect a retrace from the $7000-$7100 area to cool off the oversold RSI.
4 Hour— Bullish MACD, bullish RSI, increasing marketcap and volume all reflecting on the price action, thus pushing price higher. Price nicely moving up along an uptrend channel as opposed to the rising wedge we had few days back, after breaking difficult resistance levels
However, looking at the 4 hour chart holistically, we will see similar price pattern as shown by the ABC correction wave in june coming to play here again. Each of the moves after each failed rally has resulted in lower lows........ Could we be heading for new lows in coming month????
The alternative i am watching now is the general market sentiments. Seen a quite few bullish outlooks across social media. Lots of people getting way over their head right now believing an uptrend has begun, as Alts coins are also in green in the last 48 hours.
Well not so quick, just a profitable dead cat bounce anyways. With RSI almost oversold, we will see a correction to $6800 or even $6600 support, and then a consolidation before another leg up to test the $7400 resistance level before a drastic move downwards.......or we could even extend the current wave into the oversold region to test the $7400 resistance at the downtrend line resistance on the daily and 4 hour, followed by a violent pull back to previous or lower lows if the strength of the bulls fails.
Daily— still stuck within the 8 months descending triangle, but the bulls seems to be holding up nicely pushing price along the uptrend channel.
However, the bearish head and shoulder pattern is still in play here.
With bitcoin domionance still above the 50% level on a very high momentum, with increase in volume, and with RSI sitting around 50%, we could see a little consolidation and then a push to the $7300-$7400 resistance area at the long term downtrend resistance line, before moving down.
Overall i dont think we are in for a rally yet as many are already bullish on this move. Infact this bullish sentiment makes me feel the market will move in opposite direction in search for a possible bottom before an uptrend.
So i think we will see a little move upwards in coming days after a little consolidation, and then a final shake-out into a real pop, and that should probably lead to a bullish reversal pattern below thus leading to a rally in coming months IMO.
A quick education if you don't mind..........
Price is not the metric you trade on, the price of an asset or crypto means nothing to a professional trader, what matters and what professional traders look out for is patterns, support and resistannce levels, the indicators, risk-reward ratio, and the probability of price action being tossed in their favour.
That said, back to the charts.............
Bitcoin finally broke out of difficult resistance zones into another high of $7k plus pushing RSI to the upper region.
Right now, Bitcoin seems to have founds support at $100 billion marketcap, which was its reversal point when price hit the yearly low of $5775.
Also when the whole market capitulated, the market cap only retraced to $102 billion without breaking the $100 billion market cap which is a very good one for Bitcoin.
1 Hour— we made a nice consolidation after breaking out of the $6600 and tested the $6800 and then back to the $6600 to the give us our higher low. With a few hours of consolidation around the $6700 area, price was able to break out successfully from the ascending triangle at $6800 resistance area and now challenging the $7000 area giving us our higher high.. I expect a retrace from the $7000-$7100 area to cool off the oversold RSI.
4 Hour— Bullish MACD, bullish RSI, increasing marketcap and volume all reflecting on the price action, thus pushing price higher. Price nicely moving up along an uptrend channel as opposed to the rising wedge we had few days back, after breaking difficult resistance levels
However, looking at the 4 hour chart holistically, we will see similar price pattern as shown by the ABC correction wave in june coming to play here again. Each of the moves after each failed rally has resulted in lower lows........ Could we be heading for new lows in coming month????
The alternative i am watching now is the general market sentiments. Seen a quite few bullish outlooks across social media. Lots of people getting way over their head right now believing an uptrend has begun, as Alts coins are also in green in the last 48 hours.
Well not so quick, just a profitable dead cat bounce anyways. With RSI almost oversold, we will see a correction to $6800 or even $6600 support, and then a consolidation before another leg up to test the $7400 resistance level before a drastic move downwards.......or we could even extend the current wave into the oversold region to test the $7400 resistance at the downtrend line resistance on the daily and 4 hour, followed by a violent pull back to previous or lower lows if the strength of the bulls fails.
Daily— still stuck within the 8 months descending triangle, but the bulls seems to be holding up nicely pushing price along the uptrend channel.
However, the bearish head and shoulder pattern is still in play here.
With bitcoin domionance still above the 50% level on a very high momentum, with increase in volume, and with RSI sitting around 50%, we could see a little consolidation and then a push to the $7300-$7400 resistance area at the long term downtrend resistance line, before moving down.
Overall i dont think we are in for a rally yet as many are already bullish on this move. Infact this bullish sentiment makes me feel the market will move in opposite direction in search for a possible bottom before an uptrend.
So i think we will see a little move upwards in coming days after a little consolidation, and then a final shake-out into a real pop, and that should probably lead to a bullish reversal pattern below thus leading to a rally in coming months IMO.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.