Three Different Scenarios - 2 of them lead to 7k
Updated
Hey everyone,
Here's my updated analysis on BTC at the moment. I have given three different scenarios and I will explain why.
First of all, bitcoin failed to make a new high on this run up and got stopped at 10k. Since then, we have had nothing but downwards movement and there is little reason to trade long at this point until we get a solid up daily candle, or better yet a solid up 3 day candle. The plan for me is to short pumps at resistance at this point until we get down to 7.2k. So with that said, I think the blue arrows or the green arrows are the most likely plan of action at this point. Another thing to consider, as the red arrows show, is that symmetrical triangles do tend to break out about 2/3 of the way down. And we have bounced of the key resistance of 8050-7950 as I have went over in detail in previous posts. We are now at a point where if we do not bounce and CLOSE a daily candle above 8.4k, short opportunities will be very attractive down to 7.2k. You can also notice that the order block support (green box) lines up perfectly with the lower end of the triangle at 7-7.2k.
See this post I made several days ago describing this a bit more. I am short here and my current bearish bias will only be changed with a close above 8.4k. I see us bouncing between 7k and 7.5k, but most likely 7k-7.2k so I would spread some bids throught there. If/when we get down there, It won't be for long and if we do go down there and not bounce off the triangle, I would reconsider my long as we need a bounce on high volume for this scenario to be feasible. I am also going to post a weekly chart picture in the comments below showing how we really are in a weekly downtrend and until we get a bullish weekly candle, it's simply foolish to try and catch the bottoms (as I'm still learning, lol)
Let's see what happens but I think we're at the top of this short term bull run and are ready to make our next leg down over the coming 12-24 hours.
Here's my updated analysis on BTC at the moment. I have given three different scenarios and I will explain why.
First of all, bitcoin failed to make a new high on this run up and got stopped at 10k. Since then, we have had nothing but downwards movement and there is little reason to trade long at this point until we get a solid up daily candle, or better yet a solid up 3 day candle. The plan for me is to short pumps at resistance at this point until we get down to 7.2k. So with that said, I think the blue arrows or the green arrows are the most likely plan of action at this point. Another thing to consider, as the red arrows show, is that symmetrical triangles do tend to break out about 2/3 of the way down. And we have bounced of the key resistance of 8050-7950 as I have went over in detail in previous posts. We are now at a point where if we do not bounce and CLOSE a daily candle above 8.4k, short opportunities will be very attractive down to 7.2k. You can also notice that the order block support (green box) lines up perfectly with the lower end of the triangle at 7-7.2k.
See this post I made several days ago describing this a bit more. I am short here and my current bearish bias will only be changed with a close above 8.4k. I see us bouncing between 7k and 7.5k, but most likely 7k-7.2k so I would spread some bids throught there. If/when we get down there, It won't be for long and if we do go down there and not bounce off the triangle, I would reconsider my long as we need a bounce on high volume for this scenario to be feasible. I am also going to post a weekly chart picture in the comments below showing how we really are in a weekly downtrend and until we get a bullish weekly candle, it's simply foolish to try and catch the bottoms (as I'm still learning, lol)
Let's see what happens but I think we're at the top of this short term bull run and are ready to make our next leg down over the coming 12-24 hours.
Note
Still have high time-frame bearish divergences as well, long with the fact that we are just trending down every single day. You can try buying on key support to catch the bounce (like 7950) which I predicted in older posts, but alas, we're still in a downtrend unless we break and close over 9350-9400. So I would short those levels with tight stops until confirmation of a trend reversal, which isn't looking too probable at this point.Note
Note
If this 12 hr closes hammer which may be the case I will look for a dip buy over the next several hours as a scalp but regardless cannot be fully bear until we get a weekly green full body candleNote
I am still looking to short as high up as possible. We are still in a pretty solid up trend but as soon as we get a 4+ hr hammer downwards I will be market selling the shit out of the failed bounce of that dip.Note
And if we close above 8.8, then and only then will I look to start buying dips again.Note
Also, and this is just speculation, but we've had such a steady ride upwards I would not be surprised if we get a massive dump to set a new high (stop run) before making a move above 8.8k Regardless this isn't bullish until we close above 8.8k and now that we're getting closer to that resistance, you'd be crazy to open a long up here.Note
To set a higher low** not a new high.Trade active
On track.Note
Couldn't have gone any better so far.Note
Almost exactly to the T as you can see.... Pretty amazi
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