Bear trap?
In previous ideas I tried to prove on incoming strong downward movement but yesterday's night and today's price action forced me to revise my views and try to find out what is going on with BTC right now.
12/26EMA bearish cross was strong SELL signal. The cross has happened yesterday and the price went down from 6450 to around 6250. Stronger downward movement was expected but selling volume was absorbed on higher levels than before and the high numbers of short positions opened on big hidden walls on Bitfinex exchange. Now the price bounced back to yesterdays's range.
The scheme of downward movement was distracted. Each sell-off resulted in lower low. Yesterday's sell-off made higher low. It means that bears lost control and it can be the sign of short term reversal.
There is news about ProShares tomorrow but as all of us know "Buy the rumours, sell the news". Because most of traders (just my assumption I haven't made research!) guess it will be denied. Maybe we will see "Sell the rumours, buy the news". Tricky situation.
My previous scenario assumed that bouncing from 26 daily EMAs and 100 4h EMA should push the price down and breakdown to 5200-5300 levels. So far the price is still below the lines but as long as the price doesn't go up and bounce from EMAS OR breaks 6260 levels I don't short it but I think we can't make lower low with such a high number of opened short positions.
What if the price goes up? If the price breaks 26 EMA I will go long but I am afraid of some crazy action within this week. The last year Winklevoss ETF resulted in very volatile movement (later I will post the chart). BTC made a wick and made ATH (???( and then fell 30%. Now we don't see such thing of course because of less market liquidity but wick to 6,9-7,2 levels and then another lower low wouldnt crush my RSI structure I made in my previous idea and would clear as long as short margin traders.
12/26EMA bearish cross was strong SELL signal. The cross has happened yesterday and the price went down from 6450 to around 6250. Stronger downward movement was expected but selling volume was absorbed on higher levels than before and the high numbers of short positions opened on big hidden walls on Bitfinex exchange. Now the price bounced back to yesterdays's range.
The scheme of downward movement was distracted. Each sell-off resulted in lower low. Yesterday's sell-off made higher low. It means that bears lost control and it can be the sign of short term reversal.
There is news about ProShares tomorrow but as all of us know "Buy the rumours, sell the news". Because most of traders (just my assumption I haven't made research!) guess it will be denied. Maybe we will see "Sell the rumours, buy the news". Tricky situation.
My previous scenario assumed that bouncing from 26 daily EMAs and 100 4h EMA should push the price down and breakdown to 5200-5300 levels. So far the price is still below the lines but as long as the price doesn't go up and bounce from EMAS OR breaks 6260 levels I don't short it but I think we can't make lower low with such a high number of opened short positions.
What if the price goes up? If the price breaks 26 EMA I will go long but I am afraid of some crazy action within this week. The last year Winklevoss ETF resulted in very volatile movement (later I will post the chart). BTC made a wick and made ATH (???( and then fell 30%. Now we don't see such thing of course because of less market liquidity but wick to 6,9-7,2 levels and then another lower low wouldnt crush my RSI structure I made in my previous idea and would clear as long as short margin traders.
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