A Fifth Consecutive Quarter of Gains?!
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With the end of March creeping up on us all, it should be noted that BTC is on track to close out a fourth consecutive quarter of gains. What's most notable about the current trend is that we've historically seen BTC put up 5 back-to-back quarters of growth before entering into a corrective quarter (2013) or a full blown bear market. The sample size may be small, but suffice to say that the faster BTC accelerates higher, the sooner we can expect BTC to enter a bear market and thus the lower the cycle top.
Assuming BTC stays the course and secures another positive quarter of gains in 2Q, we could see BTC hit the uptrending line of resistance dating back to 2011. A test of this resistance level is widely believed to result in a market cycle top being realized, though there is always a possibility that we buck the trend and break resistance. However, we should expect the bears to put up a fight at this resistance level, which sits at around 225K as of right now.
Should BTC spend 2Q20 consolidating, trending sideways, and finish up/down modestly, we can expect the bull market structure to remain intact longer and thus we can expect a higher market cycle top. If we were to assume that BTC gradually advances over the next year and tests resistance around 2Q2021, we could expect BTC to top out closer to 400K.
Though there are no guarantees in this market and BTC could certainly end up trending in an unsuspecting manner, we can lean on historical price action to get a better sense as to what is possible. Regardless, BTC has been on a rampage over the past year and appears to still have plenty of room to grind higher in the foreseeable future.
With the end of March creeping up on us all, it should be noted that BTC is on track to close out a fourth consecutive quarter of gains. What's most notable about the current trend is that we've historically seen BTC put up 5 back-to-back quarters of growth before entering into a corrective quarter (2013) or a full blown bear market. The sample size may be small, but suffice to say that the faster BTC accelerates higher, the sooner we can expect BTC to enter a bear market and thus the lower the cycle top.
Assuming BTC stays the course and secures another positive quarter of gains in 2Q, we could see BTC hit the uptrending line of resistance dating back to 2011. A test of this resistance level is widely believed to result in a market cycle top being realized, though there is always a possibility that we buck the trend and break resistance. However, we should expect the bears to put up a fight at this resistance level, which sits at around 225K as of right now.
Should BTC spend 2Q20 consolidating, trending sideways, and finish up/down modestly, we can expect the bull market structure to remain intact longer and thus we can expect a higher market cycle top. If we were to assume that BTC gradually advances over the next year and tests resistance around 2Q2021, we could expect BTC to top out closer to 400K.
Though there are no guarantees in this market and BTC could certainly end up trending in an unsuspecting manner, we can lean on historical price action to get a better sense as to what is possible. Regardless, BTC has been on a rampage over the past year and appears to still have plenty of room to grind higher in the foreseeable future.
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