Price is moving in a downtrend. The last two drop touched fib 61.8 from the last two major crash. The last one is when bch went to the moon in november and the second was china FUD in september.
Following this idea, I put another 61.8 fib retracement from the other huge crash in july and this gives me a price of 8646 $. What's interesting is that this area correspond to the lower part of the descending channel if price fail to break upward.
There are two major support at 11200 and 9500 that first need to be broken, and I don't think BTC will go below 10 000 for long. We'll see