Bitcoin: Bear Trend In Question?
Bitcoin clears two relevant resistance levels within a week's time. Noteworthy for sure, but no reason to get overly excited. Whenever moves like this occur, those who look to prey on the ignorant start proliferating fairy tales. Stop following frauds who hide behind fake names to avoid accountability. My goal here is to shed some light on reality so that you may see the market more OBJECTIVELY.
1. Always keep in mind: All markets are HIGHLY random. Charts CANNOT account for unexpected events of the future. If all these "pros" are able to forecast the future accurately and consistently then why wasn't anyone calling for Bitcoin16K back in December of 21? ANYONE can make random calls and be made to look right by a random move in the market. IF you haven't figured this out yet, you eventually will (when you no longer have money in your account). Charts provide a limited view of maybe a few weeks out and are better for quantifying risk. Anything longer than that you might as well flip a coin.
2. Is Bitcoin changing trend structure? Possibly. The key level here is 22K and it was cleared decisively. Often dramatic movements like this could be the first leg of a new trend. Either way, this move puts the bearish structure into question because resistance levels are supposed to hold, not break. The OBJECTIVE thing to do: expect less from shorts, more from longs on the swing trade time frame UNTIL proven otherwise.
3. The NEXT retrace will be TELLING. On my chart, I have highlighted the mid 21Ks to 22K even area (see rectangle). This is the old resistance / new support that offers a potential swing trade long (upon appearance of setup). This area also happens to be a convenient location for a Wave 4 pullback and transition into a Wave 5 on the impulse structure that originated from the November / December low.
4. IFFFF this 21.5K support happens to be cleared on the bear side, then it negates this bullish move. Its NOT about "when" the market will do this, it is about preparing and adjusting. This is why it is such a BAD idea to hold opinions, especially around prices that are out of range and unreasonable. These opinions will eventually cost you your account. What if Binance goes out of business in two months? If I had said that about FTX in October, you would have laughed at me. ACCOUNT FOR THE RISKS.
5. My biggest question or concern about this market is the bonds. After a break out attempt earlier in the week, they are not following through. I am beginning to suspect that the market is getting comfortable at the current range of rates, and pricing in a future where rates will not continue much higher. I could be wrong, but if bond prices fail to push lows, then that is an invitation for new money to enter the system. Since I don't carry opinions, I let the market tell me how to interpret this. Again I will be watching the next significant retrace across the board, which may reveal a reasonable long term buying opportunity (growth stocks, speculative growth portfolio).
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
1. Always keep in mind: All markets are HIGHLY random. Charts CANNOT account for unexpected events of the future. If all these "pros" are able to forecast the future accurately and consistently then why wasn't anyone calling for Bitcoin16K back in December of 21? ANYONE can make random calls and be made to look right by a random move in the market. IF you haven't figured this out yet, you eventually will (when you no longer have money in your account). Charts provide a limited view of maybe a few weeks out and are better for quantifying risk. Anything longer than that you might as well flip a coin.
2. Is Bitcoin changing trend structure? Possibly. The key level here is 22K and it was cleared decisively. Often dramatic movements like this could be the first leg of a new trend. Either way, this move puts the bearish structure into question because resistance levels are supposed to hold, not break. The OBJECTIVE thing to do: expect less from shorts, more from longs on the swing trade time frame UNTIL proven otherwise.
3. The NEXT retrace will be TELLING. On my chart, I have highlighted the mid 21Ks to 22K even area (see rectangle). This is the old resistance / new support that offers a potential swing trade long (upon appearance of setup). This area also happens to be a convenient location for a Wave 4 pullback and transition into a Wave 5 on the impulse structure that originated from the November / December low.
4. IFFFF this 21.5K support happens to be cleared on the bear side, then it negates this bullish move. Its NOT about "when" the market will do this, it is about preparing and adjusting. This is why it is such a BAD idea to hold opinions, especially around prices that are out of range and unreasonable. These opinions will eventually cost you your account. What if Binance goes out of business in two months? If I had said that about FTX in October, you would have laughed at me. ACCOUNT FOR THE RISKS.
5. My biggest question or concern about this market is the bonds. After a break out attempt earlier in the week, they are not following through. I am beginning to suspect that the market is getting comfortable at the current range of rates, and pricing in a future where rates will not continue much higher. I could be wrong, but if bond prices fail to push lows, then that is an invitation for new money to enter the system. Since I don't carry opinions, I let the market tell me how to interpret this. Again I will be watching the next significant retrace across the board, which may reveal a reasonable long term buying opportunity (growth stocks, speculative growth portfolio).
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
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