Long

Updated

Bitcoin, Bulls and Bears are fighting, bullish wedge (flag)

In a bull market (trend) downwards corrections happen (mostly) fast and hard, so an objective view would say that the drop from 11.700 towards the 9300 is only a correction within the new bull market of Bitcoin. This wedge (or flag) would also confirm this same thought. As we can see in that blue cirkel, the buyers are gaining some strenght because the lows are getting less low, which is a clear sign that selling power is decreasing (or buyer power is increasing), but judging on the low volume it's probably the buyers who are in doubt and are waiting on the sideline and that selling power is decreasing.
Within that big wedge we can see a smaller wedge, where it has already broken out off. But this has not happened with an increase of volume, so that's actually a weak sign.However, if it can continue like this and go towards the 10K and break out of the bigger bullish wedge (flag) WITH volume, it could still bring bullish momentum completely back and we could just make a new bull rally again. But high volume is really needed, just like the rally that started from the 8800 breakout a few weeks ago.

I would say, for the short term, Bitcoin may not drop below the 9400 anymore, to make sure that the blue cirkel stays intact. So i expect a small drop towards the 9500/9400 from this point (not necessary though) and than go above the heavy resistance of 9800. This level is very important now, because it got sold several times now the last few days. For the conservative trader, i would say wait for a break of the 9400 or 9800.

Note

Looks like it's going to drop out of this channel, as long as it stays within the blue cirkel, the med term could still be bullish

Note

Now it's the moment of thruth, hanging on the support level now around 9400, making a small bear flag, so chances have increased we are going to drop out and continue to go down.

Note

So we have seen a breakout with a big acceleration and increase of volume. BUT, Bulls don’t get your hopes to high, this time it has become clear to me about what just happened. I don’t need to see facts or numbers, I am just 100% convinced about what happened and it’s just typical for the crypto market because it’s extremely easy (same happens with the stock market of course).
There are at least 2 types of traders/Investors, the daytrader or swing trader and the long term investor. Long term in crypto are mostly people who don’t know what they are doing. People who go short are mainly short term traders.

There are certain people who have access to information that not everyone has, that’s where people have their automatic stop for a short position. I am just convinced that the people who pushed it higher, with that big up spike, knew exactly when to do it! It’s quite simple, when you now where there are a certain amount of automatic stops, and the levels were quite clear this time, the 9800/9900 was a clear resistance for a few days, than all they have to do is push it up 100 or 200 points and than the rest goes automatically. So do not see it as really buying, it’s only FORCED short covering. Exactly the same happened when it broke out the 8800 a few weeks ago and it began the rally to the 11.700.

So it does work, because most people don’t understand what is really happening and they all think a new force of buying power has entered the market. So of course there will be some follow through (probably) but it’s not a real fundament for the medium term.

Anyway this big move up says we will go up further, towards the 11.700, I would like to see IF gets there, and if we break that level, i would be surprised if we break the 13K. If buyers really have regained all the trust in Bitcoin and the crypto markets

Note

I will post this later on in an educational chart

Note

Dont stare to much at the lines that i have drawn here, but according to the pattern (the cirkel) we should go towards the support line again within the next few days. Every drop towards this support should be seen as a buy opportunity and a stop should triggered when it drops out (with some margin of course). I would not be buying here at the high around 10300, i would patiently until it drops again, if it doesn't, yeah well bad luck and just wait for another chance. The risk here are just way to high. It's not exactly the same as the breakout of 8800 a few weeks ago. This move up could only be the affects of the smaller wedge within the big wedge/flag. It has already reached it's target at the red line. Therefore i would rather short it here than still go long. I am still flat by the way, since friday,

Note

I have to say, it's still hanging there, so it is showing strength. Turning this consolidation into a bullish flag (probably). As long as it stays above the 10.100 the next few hours, we could be seeing a follow through of this small rally

Note

Now this is a test, with flags like these, after a big move like this morning, normally i see it staying above this trend line. If this small flag is going to be completed, it's going to bring is to around 10.000. It's still okay for the bulls, but strength is weakening a bit than

Note

Bulls have won part one of this little fight, countered the bear flag, now they have to push through that red area, otherwise it will form a right shoulder and it wil form a small H&S with a target around 9800
/

Note

I just went short at 10770

Note

It's not exactly the same as the previous 2, but it did drop out that channel and has been trying to get in again. If i am right, we could drop towards the 10200/10400 or maybe even towards 9800, to retest the previous resistance as a big support now, it would really fit this picture, of the blue circle, making another high low at the 9800

Note

With this move, the right shoulder of the big inverse H&S that many are talking about, would become much stronger and have a better basis to go forward. Now, to be clear, i really don't expect we will even get that far, getting above the 13K, but i am not going to fight it of course

botje11

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

botje11

Also on: