Possible jump to 8500 or a trap

Updated

In the previous analysis (based on daily TI Stoch, StochRSI, Williams), I estimated that bitcoin would reach 7400 (higher than M/BB, but not U/BB) for testing upwards daily SMA365 and line of pitch fan at 6400. Unfortunately, proposed model did not work. Bitcoin reached U/BB, crossed up daily SMA365 and the line of pitch fan at 6400, while daily SMA/EMA10 = 7550-7600 provided resistance for further growth. At the moment, it is hard to make a forecast of further movement.

If bulls make it above daily SMA/EMA10, then it goes up to daily to SMA/EMA20 = 7950-8000 or even up to daily SMA/EMA50 = 8400-8500 (including Fibonacci=8400). Movement above 8400-8500 is unlikely. On the other hand, if this jump was "false", then the bears can take the initiative and take bitcoin down to 6900.

5H TI moved to the "buy" zone, except for StochRSI and Williams, so you can expect a slight drop to the M/BB projection at 7350-7400, and then press up to 7550-7600 daily SMA/EMA10.

Daily TI, on the contrary, continue to be in the "sell" zone, and at the same time TI Stoch=20, StochRSI=50, Williams=-70 left the "oversold" zone into the "sell" zone. Other TI indicate downward movement: RSI=38, MACD=-350, DMI=55. Therefore, you can expect the next move down to point 7200-7300.

Given the combination of TA factors, I assume that bitcoin with a 60 probability would go down, and 40 that up.

Take care of your BTC, USD and health!

Note

Small update on the analysis: bitcoin continues to "push" about 7550-7600 daily SMA/EMA10, while 4H U/BB goes up. So, I estimate the possible growth to 7600-7700 to test the weekly SMA/EMA50.

Nevertheless, I keep to the initial position that then bitcoin will drop to 6900-7200.

Note

Current drop down may be because of 2 reasons:
1) "Rejection" of 7550-7600 daily SMA/EMA10, then the fall should be deeper.
2) 5H TI Stoch, StochRSI, Williams were in the "overbought" zone, then the drop should now stop and growth begin.

Note

Bitcoin is testing M/BB. Considering that 5H SMA/EMA 5, 10, 20 were broken, then the probability of upward jump is low. Targeting to L/BB, if M/BB is broken.

Note

After several unsuccessful attempts to pass above 7550-7600 D SMA/EMA10, bitcoin rolled back lower than 7300. This fall was also due to the overheated 5H TI Stoch, StochRSI, Williams. In addition, the fall stopped at M/BB, and successfully tested this line, then the bulls again rocket up (even though I assessed such jump as unlikely, since 5H SMA/EMA 5, 10, 20 were "knocked out" ). Nevertheless, lets analyze the further movement:

5H TI moved to the "buy" zone, except for the "lagging" MACD, and StochRSI and Williams are overheated, so we can expect a slight decline to 7450-7500, and then the pressure up to the W SMA/EMA50 7600-7700.

Daily TI, on the contrary, continue to be in the "sell" zone, and at the same time TI Stoch=23, StochRSI=60, Williams=-60 are also in the "sell" zone. Other TI indicate a downward movement, although there is a positive trend: RSI=41, MACD=-350, DMI=50. On the basis of daily TI, you can expect a move lower than M/BB to 7200-7300.

Daily SMA/EMA: Short-term MA crossed long-term, which puts pressure down on bitcoin. Projections of short-term MA indicate further decline. SMA5 seeks to cross SMA10, but more importantly: SMA50 strives to cross SMA100. The main difference is that EMA50 is under EMA100, and moreover the line crossed EMA200.

Now bitcoin broke up D SMA/EMA10 7450-7550 and slowed at the predicted W EMA50 7600. Of course, breaking through the W SMA/EMA50 7600-7700 will open the way to D SMA/EMA20 7900-8000, and would significantly change my approach, which was based on reaching the point 6900.

Given the aggregate of TA factors, I assume that biction can reach D SMA/EMA20 7900-8000, but eventually it should rebound down to 6400-6900.

Take care of your BTC, USD and health!

Note

Note

Daily short-term MA crossed down long-term and we have negative projections of MA, which indicates that bitcoin should go down. The only positive thing which might happen, is that 50D SMA would cross up 100D SMA. Also, if 5D SMA/EMA crosses up 10D SMA/EMA, so then bitcoin might overcome resistance at 50W SMA/EMA, and make it to 20D SMA/EMA = 7900-8000. Long-term MA indicates that bitcoin should come to 100W SMA = 4400 or 100W EMA = 5500, before we start new bullish run to ATH.

Note

Waiting for 5D SMA to cross up 10D SMA. And 50D SMA to cross up 100D SMA. And MACD to cross up signal line.

Note

Yesterday was another attempt to pass above weekly SMA50 = 7600, but due to failure, bitcoin rolled back down to 7400, almost reaching M/BB. After touching M/BB, bulls got the signal up and launched it again to 7600. Let's analyze the further possible movements.

5H TI are in "buy" zone, except Stoch, StochRSI, Williams (which are "overbought"), so you can expect a very small drop to 7500, and then the pressure up to weekly EMA50 = 7700.

Daily TI, on the contrary, continue to be in the "sell" zone, and at the same time, such TI as Stoch=33, StochRSI=80, Williams=-65 provide positive projection. Other TI indicate a downward movement, although positive dynamics have already been observed: RSI=42, MACD=-350, DMI=45. On the basis of daily TI, it is possible to expect a repeated testing of M/BB, with a lower point = 7400.
Daily SMA5 seeks to cross up daily SMA10. Daily SMA50 seeks to cross up daily SMA100. Daily MACD has already touched the signal line up. These are positive aspects that can have an effect in the short and medium term.

Now Bitcoin is consolidating around daily SMA/EMA10, as well as above M/BB, to eventually break weekly EMA50 = 7600. Of course, breaking up weekly SMA/EMA50 = 7600-7700 opens the way to daily SMA/EMA20 = 7900-8000, though I can not add another info for now, as we are “trampling on the spot".

Given the aggregate of TA factors, I assume that bitcoin can reach daily SMA/EMA20 = 7900-8000. After reaching this point, we will look at the further development of TI and MA to understand whether uptrend would continue to weekly SMA/EMA20 = 8100-8300 and to daily SMA/EMA50, 100 = 8500-8600.

Take care of your BTC, USD and health!

Note

If to look at 5H chart with BB we would see that bitcoin stopped its fall near M/BB. As I posted in last analysis: on the basis of daily TI, it is possible to expect a repeated testing of M/BB, with a lower point = 7400. So now we should watch either it holds or breaks down.

Note

Brief update.

4H M/BB is broken and price cant push above (need to overcome at least to 7475). 5H M/BB still holds. 5H SMA/EMA 5, 10, 20, 50 are broken. Stoch, StochRSI and Williams (4H, 5H and daily) did not move to oversold. Also RSI, MACD and DMI (4H, 5H and daily) do not give any upward move.

So, bitcoin is going to 7300 (4H L/BB), 7100 (5H L/BB) or 6900 (Daily L/BB). However, last time when bitcoin was testing M/BB there was nearly the same situation, but buyers came and launched it to weekly SMA50 = 7600, so to some extend it might be consolidation near 4H/5H M/BB and daily SMA/EMA 5, 10 in order to overcome final resistance at weekly EMA50 = 7700.

Personally I assume more probability that bitcoin should drop.

Note

In the last updated analysis, I assumed (based on 4H, 5H and daily TI and MA) that the second attempt of bears will break down below 4H/5H M/BB and move it to L/BB. This option did not work, and there was an option that I gave much less probability, so I pointed out: consolidation around 4H/5H M/BB and daily SMA/EMA 5, 10 to overcome the final resistance at weekly SMA50 = 7700. Now It can be seen that this consolidation made it possible to break through the resistance at weekly EMA50 = 7600, and to test weekly SMA = 7700. Lets analyze further possible movements.

4H/5H TI are in the "buy" zone, except for Williams, StochRSI (which are "overbought"), so you can expect a very small drop to 7500 (M/BB), and then re-test near weekly SMA50 = 7700.

Daily TI on the contrary continue to be in the "sell" zone, and at the same time Williams, StochRSI are forming positive projection. There is also a positive trend with other TI: RSI = 43, DMI = 30, MACD = -330. On the basis of daily TI, you can expect daily M/BB to be successfully tested, with possible growth to 7900.

Daily SMA5 crossed up daily SMA10. While daily SMA50 still strives to cross up daily SMA100. Daily MACD is fixed above the signal line. These are positive moments, on the basis of which we can expect growth to daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800.
On the other hand, daily EMA and MOM (7/30) provides neutral projections, although weekly SMA/EMA and MACD point to a possible continuation of the down fall.

Now bitcoin is consolidating between daily SMA/EMA5, 10 and 4H/5H M/BB, so in the end it could to get to weekly SMA50 = 7700.

As I wrote earlier, breaking up weekly SMA/EMA50 = 7600-7700 would open the way to daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800-7900, and this will change my medium-term plan, which was based on 6400, 6800-6900.

Given the combination of TA factors, I assume that bitcoin would achieve daily SMA/EMA20 = 7800-7900. And I repeat: after reaching this point, we should look at the further development of TI and MA in order to understand, whether bitcoin would continue its run to 8100-8300 and higher.

Take care of your BTC, USD and health!

Note

The last analysis transferred to a simple chart

DvdGoldberg

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