Bitcoin - Chance of A Bounce?
Just some extremely simple long-term probability + pattern theory here.
10 times in Bitcoin's history the RSI has dropped below 25 (on the 14-period Daily setting), and 7 of those times that has been followed by a significant recovery.
Granted it is not a large sample size of occurrences to work with, and this over-sold condition is worse than the others, and past performance is not indicative of future results. But Bitcoin is still a young asset class and respects technical patterns well. Could this be the brutal beginnings of the next bull leg, or is it just the brutal beginning of capitulation? Personally I believe things will get worse before they can get better, but I am not one to ignore 70% odds - even with only a sample size of 10.
One thing is for certain: I would not be shorting at these prices. The short fun is over in terms of risk vs reward, although the critics would say zero is still a long way away (and they're not wrong).
The rest of the year should be very interesting for crypto traders, that's for sure!
10 times in Bitcoin's history the RSI has dropped below 25 (on the 14-period Daily setting), and 7 of those times that has been followed by a significant recovery.
Granted it is not a large sample size of occurrences to work with, and this over-sold condition is worse than the others, and past performance is not indicative of future results. But Bitcoin is still a young asset class and respects technical patterns well. Could this be the brutal beginnings of the next bull leg, or is it just the brutal beginning of capitulation? Personally I believe things will get worse before they can get better, but I am not one to ignore 70% odds - even with only a sample size of 10.
One thing is for certain: I would not be shorting at these prices. The short fun is over in terms of risk vs reward, although the critics would say zero is still a long way away (and they're not wrong).
The rest of the year should be very interesting for crypto traders, that's for sure!
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