Updated

Watch out for likely sideways and pullback.

Weekly scenario: price reached the 42-48k FIB area area and it's going to meet resistance soon.
Notice how close it is riding upper weekly bollinger band and closing to upper limit of a broadening wedge pattern.

Overbought already on RSI / Stoch RSI.
Very extended TD count (14).

It should prove pretty difficult for Bitcoin to break and hold over 48k from here.
I'd consider more likely a substantial pullback,within next few weeks.

Any down-move holding above the 36k mark(FIB 0.382) would be physiological and not alarming in my opinion. That said i'd use some caution and take measures to protect open positions from here onwards.

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Moment of truth is nearing, observe the rising wedge forming.
Watch blue support.

I'd say a fakeout is likely and pullback may start next week.

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Pulling back indeed, support gone and 2k down already.

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Fakeout to resistance (and pullback to previous support).
TD ocunt 18, bad looking weekly candle.

Strong bearish divergences forming.
Keep an eye on them (e.g. RSI)

View unchanged, sticking to the plan.

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Zooming a bit, as we have some interesting price action.

As you see price reached again the temporary pullback support it already tested 3 times. Once more reaction should be evaluated.

Anything under 44k is risky in this phase and I think it's going to lose such support, sooner or later.

IF it fails to bounce right from here and breaks down i'd see it will form a Chuvashow fork and move straight towards 40k.

Possibly lower, as a flashcrash may possibly shorten the timespan of the movement i originally depicted here.

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Soon to say, but in -purely hypothetical terms- this could be a possible "ABC" flashcrash if prices loses support here.

It's not much different from the original hypothesis, except for a shorter timespan.

I thin it's worth keeping an eye on this, as long as price stays below 44/44,5k.

No hurry, let's see.

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So 40,6k was hit already.

Once more, divergences didn't lie.

It's the second time BTC falls this low, since i posted this analysis.
First time was December 18th, low at 40.5k before a short lived ETH euphoria leading to the (late) fakeout.

This is close already, at 40,6k.
Static support area from here downwards.

Now it's pretty simple: it's a matter to check whether Chuvashov static support around 40k holds (apart from bouncing).

Otherwise a full swing ABC correction would be an option.

Overall scenario stays unchanged for now.

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Unsurprisingly.

Let it cool down.
MA20/W should be tested, that's normal and just a matter of time before it happens.

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It's moving a bit faster than i expected, hence it may bounce along the way.

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It will test MA20/W, yet it's likely to bounce before.

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Bouncing and pretty close to the ABC hyphotesis.

Let's see weekly close.

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Thare's a very sparse bullish pennant forming, look out for breakout or retrace.

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Breakout achieved.

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Hit resistance just fine. Higher high.

This is resistance again, if it can pierce through would be pretty interesting.

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Here's the pennant i mentioned 20 days ago.
Unfolding and pretty close to natural target.

That's a very impulsive move, time-wise.
Typical FOMO.

Yet volume is not following, so far.
Looking forward to MA/20W test, once this impulsive move bounce starts losing steam. Meeting it in the 50-45k range, if not slightly above, would be encouraging.

Time is the variable here.

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Let me add that previous resistance area, 48-42k, is now support.

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Pennant target area reched, FOMO ongoing.

It nailed previous already ATH, now i'd like to see weekly close.

Bitcoin never did a double top in all its history, so yes it's bullish.
That said i'm looking forward to a higher low formation.

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Hmm starting to show small bearish divergences.
TD count >9, overbought RSI / Stoch RSI, MACD seemingly about to stall.

Keep an eye on it, letting alone wicks i think it's gonna to retest 59k.
Possibly within a week or less, that's the feeling.

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I think a failed high is in the making.
Watch out for a spike-up and pullback quickly afterwards.

Ignore spikes, look at weekly close.

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Watch it along this week, possible failed high / bull trap in formation.

* bearish divergence
* Rising wedge
* MACD possibly stalling.

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Well expected.

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62k hit, nearing support:

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Here we go.
Support reached.

Likely bounce, but watch out .
Anything below 68,5k means ABC risk.

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Here goes the bounce, back at key resistance already.

BTC needs a W close above 68,5k or stays at risk of ABC.
Let's see.

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Pretty surgical. Now sideways in the resistance box, watch out for breakout direction.

High chance it will challenge upper bound of resistance.
Possible inverted H&S in the making.

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Here's price at resistance again.

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