Beware the big bounce! Bitcoin.

Updated

Unbreakable warriors.

A chart to give you targets and why I think 7600 is the most likely one.
Of course anything is possible blah blah blah careful we don't bounce too hard on 8000 the usual.
Just comparing big bleeds that happened lately.

So make sure to close your short before we get there, look for reversals on the way tho target(s), never know.
Start going long from 7800 scale in on the way down the regular stuff, the bounce should bring us somewhere up 1500$ at least so start taking profit if we get close to 0.382, and then you can probably
start opening a short position too and scale in, short more as we go up.

Same stuff as usual rince and repeat.

+++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). Trade at your own risk +++

Trade active

Entry: 9260.
Leverage : 25 went small didn't want to take too much risk :}

Note

We bounced some. Don't think that's going to be "the big one".
But I'm trying to compare to find the worse case scenario to make sure I win no matter what. If we get too close to my liquidation price I short more.
I'm using very high leverages even if we get "the bounce of a lifetime miracle epic rally that makes no sense BTC up to 10k instant god himself intervened" I'll lose a couple hundreds... And I think that's quite unlikely :p

Note

We had a climb all the way up to 0.618. The alts bounced pretty hard.
Clearly the bears are losing momentum just like last time when we were going towards 10210.
Can we get another wave surprise attack of BS bad news to scare people and ruin going long at 7600-8000? Or Marc Kakapales oe w/e his name decides to sell all "his" Bitcoin. Shorting is so much less risky than going long...

"When people get fearful, they get fearful en masse. Confidence comes back one at a time. When they get greedy, they get greedy en masse." - Warren Buffet.

I'm also prepared for the eventuallity we get a higher high of course.

Note

Not impossible people see a hammer candle if we close above 8800 or so and tommorow is a little green day before continuation down.
Sundays are rarely the big days every one buys...

I'm not being greedy anymore and keeping plenty of cash on the side to make sure I get out of the trade winning no matter what.

Target still 7600-7800.

Note

I see mainly 2 risks going down the next hours/days:
1- Bouncing quickly fast up on 8000. Eyes peeled! If your entry is 9000+ you'll have time to react. If we go above 0.618 start worrying...
2- The big capitulation... Careful with longs. I'll make a new post warning about sudden capitulation if everything keeps going as planned.
We traders should stick together, we're here to rob the herd hand in hand! :D

Note

We retraced to 0.236 on the whole dump and rejected it hard. If we go up now I'll be looking at these levels:

But let's hope we just go all the way down...to 8000 at least.
8342 is the low of the dump for now, got to go below that at least to set a lower low and continue the downtrend.

Note

Feeling more relaxed, not over yet but more relaxed.
After taking a hit thanks to the bad news rain 2 days ago, I don't feel like taking another loss...

Note

Placed an additional (small) sell order slightly below the top of wave 3.

Note

Or:

Note

Rising wedge confirmed.

Note

If we went all the way to 9600 that would be a 0.382 retrace up and a 15% bounce on that one since 8342.
If we go above 0.618 the odds of going down are lower.

Note

Daily candle closed.

I'm just going to short more at each fibo level and not think too much about it.
Like a robot.
Not sure how much I want to risk there, not to much but I can risk a bit the odds are pretty good we go down.

Note

If we follow the most probable path, we will have gotten our big bounce.

Every one overcutting these days...

Note

We're still more or less in a rising wedge, and at the top, so this could be the end of the EW.

Note

There's a good chance people start being scared now and we go down.
Fk wanted to short more. Now I got too much Bitcoin I use for nothing and their value will drop if we go dooown.
I wonder if whales sell on Bitfinex and Okex too to manipulate the price, or if finex alone is enough...
It's just too easy for them... Pretty dumb. Ok if Mr Whale wants to make money on his short/buy low, he won't have a hard time doing it especially now that everyone is worried. Betting on the winning horse. How is that still allowed and legal...

Note

Closed on that fibo.

Note

Idk how much longer it can test 9400 but at some point if it stay there it'll be at the low of the bear flag.

Rising wedges: They're everywhere!
In crypto, rising wedge is the new head & shoulders.

We got so many and every single one broke bearish and went far down.
I'm sticking to the best probabilities keep sticking to what has 90% chances or more of working and you'll win 90% of the time.
Just trying to not go too big in so I don't destroy my account the 10% left :p

Zooming out:

Could look at previous dates, but I think now I'll go out get my S9.

Note

Warning: Bitmex took nearly 100$ fees from me in like 2 days wtf???
Probably better avoid them tbh. I'm just going to go back to Kraken and I won't try to be quick anymore. Better just give up on too low TF day trading.
I guess Bitmex only good for huge RR I'll send money there and go high leverages if there's an opportunity.
Could take all week end to slowly test things and then whole next week to go down, am I going to pay 500 bucks of fees???!

Note

Looks like it's going to go down soon anyway. Maybe I won't have to sell my organs to pay their fees. Since I'm not that interested in making money off spreads and I don't care anymore about catching the very low or very top, and my strategy doesn't really use stop losses, I might as well go back to Kraken...

Note

If I don't make money off this trade I'll be very mad. One can only be so much unlucky.
Too much pointing down the same area.

Note

Got to go now, but if we lose HL soon, RIP.
When it happens ==>

Note

Maybe that was it, that was the big bounce.
Going long from now on is going to be so risky.
Hope every one has a good risk management method, this could go very wrong very fast.

When we get out of 2017 channel, if we do, we could begind dumping massively.
Also different TA point to targets below 7000. But I'll risk a bit on a potential bounce at 7600. Just better go in big on shorts and not too big on longs imo.

MrRenev

Also on:

Related publications

BTC-Forget trading bad zones. It doesn't get simplier than this.

by MrRenev

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.