BTC Year-End Target: $5000

Analysis
There are signs all over that a temporary trend reversal is in the make:

Loss of overall bearish momentum last few weeks
Bullish RSI divergence
Morning star in the make for today's close
Never before so many open short positions (especially notice the similarity in fractal pattern and shorts when comparing the periods 12Feb18-12Apr18 and 17Nov18-17Dec18)
Sunday December 17th 2017 we witnessed Bitcoin's All-Time-High and BTC's subsequent trend reversal. That was the Sunday one week before Christmas 2017 and that surely wasn't coincidence; it is the time of the year people's moods shift towards the Holiday Period and subsequent year - people become more forward looking and realise next year must not be the same as the past one. I expect this also this year we'll see a trend reversal because of that sentiment shift one week before Christmas.

Once Bitcoin starts moving north we should see more than a little correction. Both bulls and shorters that have been waiting for lower prices will find it hard to find sellers once it starts to appear that we have already seen the temporarily low. Speed will pick up quickly and I expect us to see a big relief rally that will get us close to $5.000 Bitcoin by year-end.

Final notes:

On the 15M chart we're sideways and building an inverted H&S-pattern; the reversal and subsequent squeeze will probably not start before the end of today (or like last year, the 17th - i.e. tomorrow), so there's still some time to adjust positions.
We probably won't go straight to the moon from here, but we'll see 5k before we do see 3k.

Note

We're witnessing a great fight but I think it will be decided in favour of the bulls any moment now. The reason being as follows: the possible short-squeeze would be much much bigger than the possible long-squeeze. We'll go up like 700+ points at least. In other words, there's more money to be made for the pros by helping the bulls.

Get your popcorn ready and let's see what happens the next few hours.

Note

We're on track for the 5k by year-end and if anything things have actually started to only look more and more bullish. The aggregate amount of shorts has actually increased last few days:

If there's anything that contributes to a proper squeeze it's the bizar amount of shorts. If the majority of the retail market believes we *must* go down, then we most certainly won't. In fact, we might have all the ingredients here to squeeze and fomo our way past 5k over the coming weeks.

Note

@ All those shorters promising doom and gloom for a week now - be careful, this things is going to probably even bust 5k before year-end, and then it'll rally even further. You might rek yourself if you've just been loading up on shorts at every higher top.

What do you think will happen after discussing Bitcoin around the Christmas table?
a) people go buy because of FOMO
b) people go sell to realise someone tax loses (despite of the possibility of "a" and despite the fact that clearly those people are prone to FOMO given that they are in Bitcoin in the first place)

Of course many are still sure it will be "b" (and that's good, cause if there wouldn't be doubt in the market this thing would be much higher already), but don't say I didn't warn you it's a.

Cheers :-)

micmuc

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micmuc