For years I have been publishing on Tradingview the Ichimoku Cloud trend analysis for Bitcoin. It is now time to update the analysis as a major event has occurred recently.
Most analysts and students of Bitcoin price cycles agree that the bull trend is likely to end in 2025. Well, it is that year now. Optimists seem to have thought that it would be later in the year and slightly higher. I don't think that is going to be. Despite rumors of government Bitcoin bailouts (aka Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) each proposal has been struck down in state Congresses. I do not think it was a serious plan to begin with; just election hype.
Back to what matters; the Technical Analysis. First, we will list the rules for Ichimoku Cloud Breakouts as I use them:
Bullish Trend Begins
Bearish Trend Begins
When price is inside the cloud it is considered neutral. Only when the reverse of these conditions happen can we say that the trend has reversed. That means if we do not have both conditions the prior trend remains active.
An example of when the original bullish trend of the current price cycle began was on January 12, 2023:
Bitcoin has had many bearish cycles ranging from losing -78% to -90%. The true strength of this strategy is keeping investors out during Bitcoin's bearish cycles. The last example began December 4, 2021.
With any trading strategy one should validate the results so I encourage everyone to do the work and test these signals. I have done this over the years to save readers' time. Here are the results if we began on the signal that occured April 13, 2011:
When compared to buying 1 Bitcoin and "HODL" or never selling an investor would have more than 5 times the value and Bitcoin at the end of 14 years.
Like any strategy this one has weaknesses. Because it is a trend following strategy it will have many incorrect signals during periods of time when price has very little movement. However, over the long run avoiding the long periods of large drawdowns will make the strategy outperform.
My long term plan will be based on the past Bitcoin bearish cycles which have been between -75% and -94%. Somewhere starting at 25,000 I will begin looking to get bullish again as the cycle will continue. I remain heavily short
MSTR via Puts for that scheme to collapse entirely over the next 2 years.
Thank you for reading and trade wisely!
Most analysts and students of Bitcoin price cycles agree that the bull trend is likely to end in 2025. Well, it is that year now. Optimists seem to have thought that it would be later in the year and slightly higher. I don't think that is going to be. Despite rumors of government Bitcoin bailouts (aka Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) each proposal has been struck down in state Congresses. I do not think it was a serious plan to begin with; just election hype.
Back to what matters; the Technical Analysis. First, we will list the rules for Ichimoku Cloud Breakouts as I use them:
Bullish Trend Begins
- Price is above the cloud
- Lagging Span (or Chikou in Japanese) is above the cloud
Bearish Trend Begins
- Price is below the cloud
- Lagging Span is below the cloud
When price is inside the cloud it is considered neutral. Only when the reverse of these conditions happen can we say that the trend has reversed. That means if we do not have both conditions the prior trend remains active.
An example of when the original bullish trend of the current price cycle began was on January 12, 2023:
Bitcoin has had many bearish cycles ranging from losing -78% to -90%. The true strength of this strategy is keeping investors out during Bitcoin's bearish cycles. The last example began December 4, 2021.
With any trading strategy one should validate the results so I encourage everyone to do the work and test these signals. I have done this over the years to save readers' time. Here are the results if we began on the signal that occured April 13, 2011:
When compared to buying 1 Bitcoin and "HODL" or never selling an investor would have more than 5 times the value and Bitcoin at the end of 14 years.
Like any strategy this one has weaknesses. Because it is a trend following strategy it will have many incorrect signals during periods of time when price has very little movement. However, over the long run avoiding the long periods of large drawdowns will make the strategy outperform.
My long term plan will be based on the past Bitcoin bearish cycles which have been between -75% and -94%. Somewhere starting at 25,000 I will begin looking to get bullish again as the cycle will continue. I remain heavily short
MSTR via Puts for that scheme to collapse entirely over the next 2 years.Thank you for reading and trade wisely!
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.