Short

Capitulation could be coming sooner that I thought. VERY MUCH.

Updated

Unbreakable warriors and shaking weaklings alike!

I was holding this post until a few more weeks at least, I was hoping for a rally towards 13 or even 16k open short there and make a killing.
But the news might have precipitated capitulation.
It's not so much that they drop news to scare people, it's that people are uncertain enough to get scared by them.
If these strugglers (newsmakers) were able to understand how this works they wouldn't have to post fear news to make money in the first place.
Or maybe they wanted an inside candle on the monthly chart. These things sure are powerful. Very powerful.
I want to post this before a big crash happens for recognition. And I spent some time on it would be a waste :)

I think we can bounce once more towards 9-12k, but after that it's going to be pretty risky to open longs up there unless we go above 11788 (naturally...).
There's a good chance that the herd that lost hope by now and doesn't know what to think anymore, predicitons have been harder and alot of manipulation has been going on is just going to want to break even when we get to their buy zone mainly 6-12k.
The laggards broke even with a small loss at 17k. It's the ones that got in a bit earlier when we got these big big green volume bars, that are now worrying.
They thought they got in early and are safe "the smart ones", but they're not so sure anymore. They are going to break. A whale buying tens of thousands of Bitcoins
would have a hard time giving them hope this time around. We might get a whale seling actually, and MtGox wants to sell too.

The thing now is people that got in "early" are uncertain now and don't feel like the smart early ones anymore and started worrying.
Any news, anything can cause a mass panic by now. The rule is if it can happen, it's going to happen.
You got even "experts" on Trading View chasing their losses since 12-13k. What are they going to think now?

How it was back in 2011-2014 Mtgox days:

The thing is, I was open to the possibility we could be in the same scenario where 20k rally is the same as the 2013 rally,
a retrace and then go to 50-100k and then it's the big crash. Maybe not...

Now on the daily we got a lower high and a lower low, and we can see the sell volumes are not getting smaller.
Just like in January. People are selling more and more.
tradingview.com/chart/ZSAybNoG/

On the weekly chart we can see the weekly inside candle broke bearish.
We also lost the important 9k level, oh and also some EMA and trendlines got ravaged.

I don't know what will happen exactly and when it will happen, but one thing is certain: going long just got a whole lot more risky, and going short a whole lot less.
We could be going very very down, very very fast :)

“When people get fearful, they get fearful en masse. Confidence comes back one at a time. When they get greedy, they get greedy en masse.”
People are not on the verge of becoming greedy now.

When people are fearful, be greedy. Just wait for the big red candle.

+++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). Trade at your own risk +++

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Simply can't ignore this... Could be wrong bla bla bla. Won't go long. Less is more.

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Bought some BTC on this dip, so I can short more in case we go past 10650 (I'll short some at under that too thought)

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Orders spread at 9200-9300 I really need it in case we go too high.
From now on I won't trade small moves anymore. I am done.
Only swing trade buy at the top sell at the bottom.
If I really can't help myself I'll day trade on Poloniex with 1000$ or something, no more no matter what...

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It is very likely that we get news of market manipulation in crypto in the next few days.
We would then see a violent drop in price.

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A word of caution on emerging markets.

Emerging market...
Video games were an emerging market in the 80's sooo many games got released on first and second generation consoles, pushed by greed "don't test them just release more and more flood the market", in 1983 the revenues peaked at $3.2 billion, and in 1985 they were $100 million, consoles got cancelled and never saw the light... The US lost their console lead to Japan and never recovered hehehe.
But now console gaming is pretty small compared to PC...the biggest market is casual gaming on mobile phones... -.-
Console gaming revenue in the past years is if I'm correct around 6 billion, probably less than in the 80's when ajusted for inflation... Nice emerging market.

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Might come even sooner than sooner than expected...
Want to start making troll calls for a crash of epic proportions in a few days...
Would probably be right...?!!? I'm made this very bearish post 20 days ago when people still thought we're going to 16k and even I am pretty stunned...
Chill out herd, you'll have other shots at panic selling...
But well when the herd think that's it it's all over that's when it goes up...

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It'll be over before autumn this year. Unless the ponzi-tier unsustainable uptrend breaks ... If that happens BOY OH BOY goodbye bulls.

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The most probable price action in the next months would be around 10 more dark days, then some recovery for ~6 weeks and then we go down the dark path again.

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Oh and WHEN we crash, don't tell me "Well there were the news of a terrorist attack financed by cryptocurrencies no one could have predicted that no one saw it coming".
You'd be embarrassing yourself.
And probably start arguing with me like all the idiots and then try to get me banned when I make you look stupid.

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10 days have past. Bitcoin is still following perfectly the steps of bubbles.
Very educative.
If you want a look at what people were thinking you can look at my posts in this period, BUT I am not the average person, so you'll get the rare view of someone that saw everything.
If you want to see how the public was, I have some screenshots of chat rooms, showing how we went from mostly bulls to 50/50 yet still the bulls keep getting euphoric on pumps. I have it all documented on my PC (hope my HDD doesn't die) will post it somewhere later (could even write a book, but I'm bad at writing).

Ok let's compare some of the bubbles available on TradingView:
Dot Com. Following all the steps correctly. Excellent.

The end of the roaring 20's, a personal favorite:

Bitcoin 2014 :)

2014 wasn't a "real bubble" in the sense the public wasn't in, so mainly because of this fact I believe, it does not look "perfect". But the steps are all respected, people psychology emotions greed fear and everything followed the same route.

I will keep updating this important idea until we get to the "this rally will fail like all the other ones told you so" phase if I can, and maybe till the top of next bubble so we get the whole market cycle. But next bubble won't be a new emerging market with the public joining for the very first time, so better to look at 2017 for the whole picture.

See you later, alligator :)

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Oh didn't realise we had japan stocks.
Here's there bubble, poor thing never recovered:

Zooming in so we can actually see something. It's all there, the 2 tops, then the bounce mid air during first crash, the bottom, then the recovery / back to normal, and then the "higher low" bull trap. Ye exact same as Bitcoin don't need to repost Bitcoin chart. trading view does not have total crypto market cap, but it ressembles BTC. And these past days we went from 200B to 250B good bull trap.

All the phases are there, we just don't have the recovery yet (RIP).

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Becoming clearer this will be a big one. Ponzi's over.
Blockchain = tech
BTC = currency based on tech
BTC mania/HODL mentality = PONZI based on BTC

Let history also know I am not stupid and I recognize BTC value in trading alts (its only purpose pretty much).

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What do people do when they are bored? They look at stuff, do research.

People have watched the order books, I'm seeing a new person discover it's all bots every day.

People are starting to notice that 80% use of trading exchanges apps is gone, google searches for BTC dropped to zero, while the trading volume is still similar and we're supposed to wait for buyers.

The bots can move the price where they want but as soon as they go to a bagHODLer dump zone they'll stop buying.

Could it be whales desperate to save the price before it falls sub $1000?

"Hi my friend and I found this rock, and we've been buying and selling from each other for 5 years. You can buy it from us for $8200".

"Hi remember the issue the world had before we invented fiat currencies? Well we created a new problem, but this time it's worse tenfold! Enjoy."

This is going to hurt.

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"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."
Log update.
Past week has been beyond... Like a sect of complete fanatics.
Many people are calling for ath (we didn't even get a higher high on the daily technically still in a downtrend with only lower highs lower lows for the past 2 months now).
I could link here but the articles and social media should still be easy to find and viewable in the future anyway. The dates are 16-22 April 2018 (and maybe after that too idk yet we're the 23 today). Easy.
Maybe it's due to the sudden sunny wheather.

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Corrected up to 0.618 and then formed a bearish engulfing candle signaling continuation of the downtrend. There is also news of MtGox to help it go down.

As a good little trader I shorted at 9700$ (and closed already 12 HR later after the big fall), I could not open a swing trade as I am stuck in a short from 8500$ (and already closed some of it to reduce my risk and lost money) I could have executed that trade correctly and not lost money but I still have a "normal" full time job as I'm typing this and I haven't yet mastered how to babysit my trades while I'm busy all day.

The crowd is still quite bullish and calling this a normal retrace down.
We are so far from 9700$ now, too late to short it.

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Not sure anymore we could see a bottom soon, might take longer than a year....
Timing these things is too hard. Too much chaos and randomness.
What I can say is the actual generation is called "swipe right" and aren't very patient but they also act like a cult and have been convinced if they "HODL" they will become rich no matter what. This "HODL" thing is a larger social movement and in 2018 if you comment negatively on their favorite cryptocoin the cultist team up and jump on you with all their hate. I can say it is on the same level as saying the "n" word in america on television to an 8 years old (this should stay in history too).

So how to spot the next crash / bubble explosion?

The difficulty lies in timing a crash, not predicting one, nothing could be easier than predicting a bubble popping.

3 easy steps to guessing more or less when it's going to happen:

- News & tv
As well as google trends or social network interest or whatever.
When some financial market makes the front page of mainstream news paper, you can instantly come to the conclusion we're at the bubble stage.

– Rapid price movements
+100% in a week? Yeeee...

– Leverage & debt

Most bubbles have relied on some level of leverage or debt to sustain higher prices.
Once the public has joined, and they all bought, the price will still keep going up a while as "not very intelligent" people get debt to buy more.

- Unrealistic expectations

A widely accepted "instrument" everyone knows about and are massively buying getting +10000% gains in the next 2 years in the mouth of speculators. "It will replace everything it is the future of humankind everything is going to be different". Absurd nonsense that makes kids laugh when they hear it at school, but it doesn't stop them from saying these things a few years later. Every one laughs hard after a bubble popped, but few are these that don't fall for it while it happens... Easy to hindsight...

– People all become financial experts

It’s often said that during the Roaring Twenties even the shoe shiners were giving out stock tips. During the tech bubble, cashiers and housecleaners were making "money on the side" "investing" in the latest IPO (they never saw that money as amateurs don't sell "why would I it's going up" "why would I it's only correcting it will go back up").
When hordes of burger flippers and shoe shiners that failed math in first grade give you financial advice and/or start a social network account and instantly get tens of thousands of followers and act like they knows best than the banks and wall street combined and will beat them; you damn well KNOW for sure bubble's about to pop give it a year at most.

For greater precision, look at the chart: volume, bearish divergence on larger time frames, monthly RSI(standard values) above or way above 70...

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Now in May. Spring came earlier than expected and crypto has been bullish since the very day the sun appeared.
The weather is pretty decent today, and expected to keep being good next days.
On Trading View the top crypto ideas for the day are still getting 20 times as many likes as the top ideas for the second most popular asset, Forex.
I keep getting ads for crypto on my phone that doesn't block ads. Endlessly.
AS I AM WRITING THIS WOW.
At my workplace every single one below 35 years old bought some and some of them are still holding.
reddit (the most popular forum on internet) sub-discussion /r/Bitcoin has 850.000 people subscribed to it. The second most popular has 500.000 (/r/investing).
The 3rd one I think is wallstreetbets with 250k. There's 4chan /biz too boy that place. Half of popular youtubers have made at least 1 video where they talk about crypto.
I can't spend 1 day without hearing about crypto it's actually getting on my nerves.
From solume.io the social network volume about Bitcoin alone is 15000.
These stats have not changed in the past months.
I will post the new stats at the end of June, I hope I do not forget.

Funfact: The bagholders are still waiting for crypto to go public and get adopted and then every one buys.
Delusion/denial phase...

My opinion:
We might approach 12k this month, or we could go down but the most probable is we stay above 7500$.
When mid June hits it's going to hit like a truck.

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Compare this to the wall street cheat cheat, also, what people are saying in forums etc fits perfectly.
2014:

2018:

At the moment it's impossible to say exactly how it will look, every one is so good at hindsight but when it happens, not so much. I don't know what every one thinks, but the people involved in crypto are saying we go up at 99% I'm a pariah saying we go down. People will all say "Yeah I knew it" but at the very moment I type this, these hindsight hero's are nowhere to be found. I looked hard for them couldn't find them.

2018 looks very similar to 2014 because half of BTC supply is held by a handful of people that went through the last bear market.
They are looking to unload a couple million BTC's privately without moving the price this month (and past month).
It could also end up looking like gold but... nah probably rather like 2014 and worse.

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Really wish we had a trap at 13/16k

Well, crypto is no different to all the rest and this will take forever.
"Got a cancer and smoke? Just ignore it" "Ah you have 3 weeks to live? Now's the time to do something about it"
"You can sell you bags for 10k? Naaaaah just wait 6 months + for $1000 then that's when you sell, just make sure to let the price slowly crumble as no one is interested in buying and no one wants to sell hoping to break even".

Bear markets have 3 cycle:
1- Sharp fall.
2- Sucker rally
3- Slow sloooow downtrend until panic fast fall when every one sells.

I wonder how the financial people that do this for a living buy there, like, since crypto is separate from other markets do they just let their capital be frozen until this happens could take years? Or do they see it coming? Or maybe they come later.
I'm sure there's people that wait for this. But if it takes 2 years... Idk.

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In less than 30 days it will have been 6 months since the top.
Capitulation happen in early 2019 imo.
Won't take years. About 1 year is pretty decent.

let's see if this plays out :)

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It's been a little over 2 weeks since the top.
I wrote what would happen. All these people (feels like 99% but maybe the bears were being silent) that were 100% confident a bull market started disappeared.
I'm not getting shilled anymore. Man my twitter posts where I'm the only one that had the balls to say "I'm a bear and I'm still here" at the very top would look so cool now, but I got suspended because I hurt someone's feelings.

So no bull market after all?

We went down exactly as fast as we went up.
The popular tv channel CNBC and their program "fast money" are still bullish on BTC I think lol? They're saying Mea Culpa to their victims - oh typo meant viewers.

I can't tell if all these experienced experts wearing suits and ties are big manipulators, or plain stupid, but if they still haven't figured how this works after 20 years I think the word stupid is not enough to describe them. Probably huge trolls...

Here on this chart we can see we went down EXACTLY as fast as we went up:

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Let's see if I get close, or way off.
I really thought there would be a bull trap to 13k in spring.
BagHODLers weaker than expected.
Maybe this chart is too bullish?
They keep disapointing.

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When we go below the mining cost of Bitcoin and miners all sell their BTC at the same time, I wonder what would happen? Just curious :p

"We did not see that coming" "We did not take that into account" they'll say at CNBC talking fast and sweating and out of steam to keep people excited and watching their show.

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It used to take 15% to get the bagholders all excited.
Now they are "VERY" bullish on a ridiculous 6%.

It's soon over... in a few weeks at best we are below 6000.

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June hit like a truck. The 10 June exactly as I have been posting in other ideas, and even in this one's comments. Feels good to be right, and precise.
5 weeks left till we hit the ground at 3kish I believe.

The delusional fanatic crypto lovers have started to say "maybe we go down?" "Maybe 1k?"
Twitter posters with 200k followers (this is about the max for a crypto poster), that kept calling for bottoms and having stupid targets up in the sky, are now open to a bear scenario.
We are now ready to go down very hard very fast.
The capitulation will be when they ditch the bull view and ONLY have a bear one.
But they have been pretty brain watched so this is not even sure.

Someone made a web page "Cemetary of crypto twitters" with all the ridiculous "moon" calls from the past 2 months. BagHODLer talk.
Very funny, I would not say educative as it is exactly what one would expect from delusional bagholders, no suprise here, it is educational for someone that did not know already this I guess... Same as what is written in books / market cycle generic charts.
I save the web page on my HDD in case.
In a few years when looking back I will open a bottle of Dom Pérignon and feel very victorious and very smart. Will not lie I love to feel smart and I love winning, I love being right. Enjoy :)
medium.com/@dennyk/cryptocemetary-5d85fce668ab

Today I learned Daryl Guppy, which has been using moving averages to determine trends which I love, works with CNBC.
Goodbye, cruel world.

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Hello, we are the 13 June and after dumping 10% in a day the 10 June as I said, we are still going down.
The delusional "investors" are agonising and about to break.
I want 1 last bounce before the big fall, I am long, but my long represents only 25% of my short opened 35% higher than where we are now.

Regulators are looking into price manipulation, this might prevent a bounce thought.

The agony is only going to be over when they sell.

I believe capitulation is not yet to come. Not right yet, they will take a few more punches to the face before they are tired of getting hit for magic coins hopes and dreams they can get rich doing nothing.

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New week update.
Crypto is looking like a ghost town.
It is very uninstersting to traders now.
And I decided to stay away. Until the 07 July.

My prediction is we hit 5000$ the 07 July.
If this happens exactly and I am right again I am a magician, if we get to 4900-5100 around the 5-10 July or close to that I am decent.

I think a several months or at least weeks long bull market can happen when we hit 3000. (or before that). Then trading crypto might be interesting.

Otherwise just dead cat bounces / bull traps till we drop enough & best just long term trade it (I am short since ~ 8000+ and have been for several weeks & I'll hold a few more weeks).

I'll update this in 2 weeks unless something happens.

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Finally went below 6000 and made a new low.

Let it pump now.

I think 3000 is reached in a month or so...

Seems extreme? -50% in 1 month? No it's not :)

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Logically I believe we should see some price around $7500 in the next days or weeks.

Then down down down down finally.

Sorry true believers, this one trader is telling you "The king IS naked".

What I have been saying almost since I knew about crypto and started posting here.

And more and more are admitting it or seeing it.

20.000$ for magic internet meme coins, I can't even tell how much of earth electricity & vast amounts of cash to produce magic coins & to store a couple GB while it is not even used, should it get used without being redevelopped entirely it would take infinite money to run.

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2017: Mark Karpeles declares to prosecutors he ran the willy bot "for the good of the company" so it's all good, nothing to worry about, keep buying Bitcoin citizen.

Get ready for a wave of "It was for the good of the company" in the next years ;)

I still can't believe "unsophisticated investors" threw all of their money into internet meme coins.

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"But crypto is different typical market rules do not apply. This cannot be in a bubble it is mathematically impossible I am really smart"

So you are telling me when no one is buying and no one selling miners are still selling regularly so we can only go down? Market rules not only apply on the downside but are actually WORSE because miners never stop mining and selling their rewards?

"NON BELIEVER! GET HIM! YOU SHALL BURN FOR YOUR SINS!"'

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The railroad bubble mania actually lasted 15 years.
Imagine an very silly investor that buys early thinks he is rich and does not sell for more than a decade because "why would I? It is going up"

Charts showing the adoption of technology is speeding up:
hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up

I don't 100% agree, auto's for example were adopted by 50% within 10 years, already was fast.
The real difference is maybe today poor people get free money and can buy a little bit of everything. And also, mass prodution techniques making everything cheaper?

Radio went fast too. 60% adoption within 5 years, maybe a little more...

Microwave slow start, thenreally goes up fast.

Everything just going up hard.

Everything...except Bitcoin. Just no adoption whatsoever.
It's ok thought it means "you are here" and the price will massively increase once it gets adopted.

Anything that started being used has a certain pattern, that Bitcoin does not follow that pattern, but rather follows the beanie babies pattern is irrelevant.
Anyone that disagrees just does not understand the technology.

How much are beanie babies today? How much are Tulips?

Road to zer000 :)

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Be aware that in June 2018 people have not a single doubt Bitcoin is just another technology that will get adopted like the rest.
Everyone IS focussing on how early it is.

No one is considering the possibility it is NOT going to get mass adopted.

I find it very funny. I think for some people it did not even cross their mind there is a possibility. Really funny.

Even the regulators, 100% certain it's a new technology that will become used by everyone every day no doubt.

Hasn't even done anything yet.

Welcome to the land of the blind.

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I stand corrected.

Bitcoin is already fulfilling its role, and has been for a while, as criminals favorite form of payment.

Pedo services now ONLY accept BTC as a form of payment, sometimes LTC.

Criminals of all kind are going to keep needing crypto.

We found its use! Hurray!

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Almost forgot to post this.

A crypto religion was created, called 0x omega (only english allowed it is spelled with an actual omega).
I am not even surprised at that point.
The most irrational people history has ever seen if you ask me.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/crypto-insider-meet-the-first-blockchain-religion-2018-6-1026950710

I heard the religion involved eating alot of ramen...

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Let history now just how stupid the crypto fanatics are, to this end let me quote an article titled "oh god they are putting religion on the blockchain"

"
Crypto’s Jesus figure is Satoshi Nakamoto, an internet persona who introduced Bitcoin and the blockchain to the world and then disappeared, effectively dying for the sins of global finance so that it might be reborn. Those who converted to Bitcoin early have already been rewarded by seeing their investments compound, and the most devout wait for a crypto version of the rapture, when a cryptocurrency — presumably Bitcoin or Ethereum — displaces the dollar as the dominant global currency. Some of the most idealistic hold out a hope for a day when stateless digital currencies lead to a healthy redistribution of capital — a world in which people are no longer subservient to a handful of powerful individuals and institutions.
"

Every single word, the rapture the "healthy" redistribution of capital, it is all true.
Oh and those that disagree are "fools" that don't "understand it".
This is just beyond... It is not even funny anymore. Ok maybe still a little :D

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If the bagHODLers suicide before selling their Bitcoin... there will never be a capitulation & BTC will just simply fade away...

That's not even impossible. Anyway better not be greedy & get out of crypto.
I cashed out most of what I had in it & now focussing on trading FX Oil Gold and next week stocks.

For curiosity purpose I wish things would move faster, want to see how every fanatic enthusiast reacts, how many take their lives, what intelligent regulations are put in place, etc.

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I can't wait for this success story hero dumbass to hit the ground face first.

zycrypto.com/high-school-dropout-invested-bitcoin-12-now-millionaire-18/

Eric Finnman, remember that name. When he will be shaking tins and some dumb people feel sorry for him, remember how smart he thought he was back in 2017-2018 :D

There are many like this I could make a little list and maybe I will.
Some money manager with too much spare time made a crypto twitter cemetary with bull posts from the first half of 2018. I should post that all later.

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Boring boring boring. Hope every one cashed out. Might move soon, might not.
Soooo boring.

Ok let's compare some asset classes cash inflow and outflows:

FOREX: Called a 0 sum game but is it really?
Cash inflow = 1- Governments printing money (?). 2- Companies exchanging hundred of millions at the fix. 3- People exchanging currencies when they go abroad. 4- Losing traders.
Cash outflow = 1- Investment banks / market maker spreads. 2- successful traders.

STOCKS: Positive sum game no arguments (or its a company about to go bankrupt w/e)
Cash inflow = 1- Clients that purchase goods or receive a service at a fair price money (company profit). 2- Investors. 3- Some bonusses (governement help, accounting tricks whatever).
Cash outflow = 1- Commissions. 2- Investors/traders taking profit (often reinvest it). 3- Not counting expenses it is already counted in company profit cash inflow, if the company is profitable.

CRYPTO: NEGATIVE sum game
Cash inflow = 1- New suckers buying in. 2- The power of love, friendship, and true belief.
Cash outflow = 1- Miners selling rewards. 2- Exchanges fees. 3- Traders, early adopters (pedophiles and crime lords). 4- Electricity bills, GPU/ASIC industrials. 5- That ICO guy running away with your money.

How is crypto supposed to succeed again? Oh right with 2- the power of true belief. Right.

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Listen up boys and girls and let popa bear make you filthy rich:

The next 1/2 bubbles will be :

1- MAYBE Majijuana.

2- 100% GUARENTEED renewable tech, in whatever form it happens.

So be sure to get in early when we start hearing about renewable tech futures/companies (not TSLA thought, might be too late for that one).

Fantastic gains will happen next.

The crypto bubble is popping slowly, and you will NEVER EVER EVER EVER get 10000% ROI investing in crypto. It is OVER, too late, RIP. Leave that one to die and get ready for next bubble ;)

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* Not that buying cryptocurrencies can be called investing but I mean buying and holding for years.

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What I think caused the death of crypto, is for years this was a market full of very bad "unsophisticated" investors, and in 2017 many techincal people, even myself included, "regular" traders, famous fund managers, all kind of people coming to pull money out of the bubble.

The "unsophisticated" bagHODLers never sell, why would they? It is going up!
And then serious people came and milked it.

Last time it was MtGox, you had almost no way to buy crypto anymore, and all the bagHODLers back then instantly lost all of their money.

This time every one is trying to milk them.

Since this market only cash inflow are foolish gamblers, and cash outflows are plenty, I doubt it can go up "to the moon" ever again, any new cash inflow will be milked, by me and others like me. An uptrend? Let me go long and cash out effectivly taking money out of a zero-sum market.

Oh and the awesome thing about crypto is "you cannot print money out of thin air" unlike fiat, so any money I rob from there is NEVER going back into that market ;)
If that makes sense. The money can only reappear when new investors buy or old investors put their latest paycheck in.
It can ONLY go to zero. Very basic maths.

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Only way it goes up is an inflow of money so massive it outweights the profit taking from traders.

But massive inflows NEVER happened in the history of mankind without the price going up before. People only throw their lifesavings in if they saw an increase in price.

Any time an increase in price will happen all the sophisticated financial people that joine din 2017 will milk it fully.

Check mate bagHODLers.

Only way to go up is a very very long boring bear market where traders quit and don't come back.

I personally keep leaving, but I come back each time it moves, it will take more than a mere 3 weeks of flatness to get rid of me :)

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Capitulation will come at one of the 2 following times:

A) Mid-2019
B) NEVER

This does not look the same at all...

Right now BTC rejected 50 weekly MA, but I am bullish anyway, it has not actually been bullish for real during all of 2018, I think it is time for it to go up. 10.000 at least, 12.000 why not?

But the bigger picture is still bubble, no fundamentals, bla bla.

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Weren't the bulls praising Jamie Dimon for changing his mind on crypto and celebrating their victory not long ago?
What happened that they misinterpreted and fantacized about?

Anyway, in an interview, he repeats that magic virtual coin are scams.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/dimon-doubles-down-on-higher-u-s-yields-call-with-5-warning

These bulls... they will grab anything and turn it into a reason to praise their magic ponzi coins.

Anyone saw the rick and morti episode with the giant heads that a bunch of idiots start praying too?

The recuring theme of religious idiots misinterpreting everything and fantacizing about ridiculous things (some rain pours on a Jesus statue "Jesus is crying its a sign! We need to make a sacrifice to appease him!") IT IS NOT EXAGERATED.
We have clear examples. Pretty incredible how stupid some things that call themselves the same race as me can be.

This Bit'finexed butthurt character, I don't really like him, but he made an article where he proves that Tether is a big obvious scam, because he is very very butthurt and really really wants people to believe him :D
Well anyway, the content is legit and yeah the warning signs are pretty big.
Mt'Gox showed signs of incompetence yet people still got MtGoxed.
Tether is even worse, yet people are still going to get Tether'ed.

medium.com/@bitfinexed/the-tether-truth-machine-the-wheels-of-justice-turn-slowly-but-grind-exceedingly-finely-8e3bd72ad011

This article has funny moments.

For example "a few days after Tether fired their auditor & announced some other bad news, un-bothered investors just happen to give them 250 million $ that they then printed".

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Correctly comparing the wall street cheat sheet to Bitcoin bubble on trading view would be too complicated, but someone on twitter made it.

Puts the ponzi at around 200$ bottom lol.
And if it still follows the typical psychological pattern, the few hundred dollars target would get reached by mid 2019 which is what I always thought.

Right now we are nearing the end of the complacency phase, a bull trap is possible as people are dumb. Next is 1 year of going down down down down.

Capitulation is not going to come sooner than I expected, people are too stupid and never learned. Would have surprised me...

twitter.com/I_HOPE_BOT_WINS/status/1010276262915567621

FINAL VERDICT: Capitulation will not come soon, it will be slow as I first expected it to be.

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"Not a bubble" "100$ Litecoin is crazy cheap" "Just HODL"

Daily crypto hate: the old models have to be updated.

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September the 1rst.
No one is expecting a major crash.
95% of trading view either thinks we consolidate further, or we go up.
Get ready for it.
Yeah I could be wrong, but I am almost sure september 2018 will be remembered as a very painful red month. "Oh yes, there will be blood".

I took a screenshot of today's top 36 crypto ideas (top 2 pages - ideas can be from a few days ago and still be in the daily top).
imgur.com/a/TYvoTl3

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Here is how I see it happening:
Now that the short got squeezed, bags can be dumped/good traders can open short positions.

A top gets reached tomorrow (sunday) or next week (hopefully we do not go to 9000-12000 XD), Bitcoin price starts to go down, first a sudden drop but not "hoooge", and then several days of going down, and later september or october we are at 5500-6000$ "the big support".

AND THEN YOU BETTER WEAR YOUR HELMETS BECAUSE THE BLACK DAY OF CRYPTO IS HAPPENING (it has not yet happened as I am typing this but I have a crystal ball and I have seen it, the famous "black day of crypto" in my crystal ball I have not seen if it was a sunday or another day thought).

When the black day of crypto we all know about (in the future) happens, late september or during october and Bitcoinnect falls 40% in a single day, news people such as the clowns on CNBC are going to act all dramatic and breathe heavilly like they ran a marathon or something and say htings such as "I have no idea what is going on" (because I am an idiot) and make articles with titles such as "Is crypto over?" "Is Bitcoin going to zero?" "Some people say the bubble is over".

That will be the time for non-braindead people to close short positions, and maybe even go long but with alot of caution :) (I would wait for a V shape recovery OR for the momentum to slow down and scale in around 3000).

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In a few months I will see if I get confirmation of what I think:
Crypto secular bull cycle 2009-2017 is over and we are about to enter a secular bear 2018-2025 (more or less), the bulls that think after 1-3 years of bear it will be over are going to get very disappointed.

Maybe 2018 (till 2019) -> bear goes to 2500$ or something, followed by a bull market of several months, followed by a bear market.

Pretty much ABC ABC ABC.

With 2010-2011 = Secular bull wave 1, 2013-2014 = bull wave 3, 2016-2017 = bull final wave 5.

2018-2019 = bear
2020 = bull
2021-2022 = bear.

And potentially it does not end there and a last bear market 2023 - 2025.

So at least till 2022 of bear long term "crypto is over".

Without looking at the math etc it also makes sense, every one now believes in crypto and is 100% persuaded it is awesome etc so it will take them a LONG time to stop thinking that, just like it took a long time in bull phase.

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I just felt extremely aware and all my senses were at their high and then I saw a big €6,367.4 next to Bitcoin and I could not believe my eyes.

This is what average people earn in 3 months.
For a bunch of numbers that do nothing.

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Ignored all fib support MA's etc.
Just straight down.
In a few days MAYBE we will know who sold.
The herd? Goldman sachs? Silk roads? All of them?

Does not matter this was highly predictable it is what happens when the end of complacency gets close as I posted in several ideas, a while ago, but also recently. Maybe I repeat myself, I just like making charts.

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Brace yourselves...

This would mean a bear market of slightly less than 1 year.

My recommendations would be: play the oversold bounces but be very picky on trades, and remain hedged with a short.

Get ready to absorb the dump at who knows? 2500-4000

Selloff = big drop with big volume, but also big bounce.

Better not be shy there.

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This would be quite interesting :)

I can hear him in the distance. It is him!
Heeey heeey heeey!

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Bitcoin: the calm before the storm...

Kee an eye on high & low of the weekly IB.

Also, unsurprisingly with this crap...

I hope we do not follow that 1 year slow fall I posted just before.
Too much suspense kills the suspense.

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Getting ready for some fireworks today.

I do not really know how to do this, should I get some champagne?

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Who could have predicted that miners (baghodling 1 million btc) installations would have gotten hit by natural events / got their electricity bill and forced to sell / Satoshi decided to dump / people decided to 51% ?
NO ONE! There was no way to see it coming!

C'mon hurry BTC I just want to roast people XD

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Well that escalated quickly! Nov 14 crypto had a major selloff.

I do not find where I posted about the start of the anxiety phase in this idea :(
Must have put it somewhere else and forgot about this one.
Well anyway, people were anxious 2 months ago, but that step is now over or ending, and we are running straight into denial. Hopefully denial only lasts a few weeks (just the time for a bounce on 3250$) and then we jump to panic followed by capitulation.

Just because complacency lasted a while does not mean the other phases will last forever. Hey crypto might get interesting again for a while.

Once people capitulate this does not mean another boring accumulation period like what we saw for half of 2018, back during last major capitulation in January 2015, Bitocin was actually quite interesting to trade, and now if say we capitulate at $1000 that is a market cap in the ten's of billions (17 bil at least) and there should be some interesting volatility plus there are probably some people that want to buy at that price.

Personally I think that after that capitulation, 0 is way more likely than 20.000+
Of course some people say they will always support BTC, but will they live forever? It is more likely BTC fades away to zero in the next 150 years than goes to 20k.
My educated guess.
Actually might survive as a collector thing, like the deutsch mark, but you know what I mean.

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Textbook market psychology.

BTC dumped to 4000$, it dropped from 6300$ in less than 7 days and went straight thought the "very strong supports" 6000 5500 5000 4500.
I am now expecting the denial bounce, 4000$ looks like a local bottom from plenty of reasons, the odds of it going up using BTC historical data are above 95% - small sample size thought. I spent so much time preparing for this and nothing happened, of course it happened when I was not paying attention & I messed up, I entered way too early. Should be fine thought.

Going to be very careful, maybe short @ 5500 if I see signs of reversal, next will be mass panic, and not just retail bagH0DLers but huge miners too. Game over.
After this bounce is over, I expect price to go straight for sub 4000, with a little bounce on 3666$ 5-10% (not worth the risk), and then bounce hard somewhere around 3250$ (can go lower with massive selling but the lower it goes the harder it will bounce very probably my SL will be at 0 of course my position size will go accordingly). Bitmain will stop mining and a bull market will start. Much later price will go below 3000 and then it will be crazy, but that is in a long while I think.
The price dropping from 5500 straight to 3250 just happens to be a drop of 42% and this is what Bitcoin usually does.
All I know for sure is in the end price will go down. The rest is educated guesses. But end up being right most of the time.

In today's news:
"Bitcoin Mining Firm Giga Watt Declares Bankruptcy Owing Millions"

Wow, what a surprise! Never saw that coming!

I guess they were not all genius visionaries and I was not an idiot that "don't get it" after all huh?
:pepelaugh: :bitconnect:

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It did come fast... Once it started...
Were these 6 months of bagHODLing really necessary?

I wonder if people still think I was overly bearish and ridiculous now? ;) :kiss:

It is so brutal. I don't know if 3000$ will hold. I don't know if 2000$ will hold.
Only strong support I am 100% sure will hold is 0.

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Brainlets on 4chan /biz think Bitcoin bottomed.
Might see denial bounce now, and capitulation happen once the price falls below $2000.
Maybe. Just going to wait for the hard selling.

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I just have to post this again.
Just crazy how this seems like it was taken out of a lesson book.
We should replace the wall st cheat sheet with Bitcoin chart...
The typical chart does not have every wave as crystal clear as Bitcoin.
It is simply amazing to look at the Bitcoin chart. Everything is just so perfect.
Every phase is so clearly visible. The internet is full of people opinions we can see that they were thrilled during the thrill phase, complacent 6 months ago, anxious from 2 months ago.
If you have to learn 1 chart, learn the Bitcoin chart. Do not expect things to be as perfect every time thought ;)

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I wish trading view had the tulips and mississipi charts. The fools that fell for crypto back in the early XXIth century always compare the crypto bubble with the us tech stocks (that was the early internet).

Looks good. I mean on an educational perspective. It is very interesting.

Cannot time the market but denial should last between 1 and 6 weeks I think.

No way Bitcoin is not going 3 digits. I believe it will take until 2020 to see the whole picture.

Saving this log I want it to remain forever.

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This is how I see things, has not changed much for the past 12 months but things are a bit more precise now. I CANNOT WAIT to be proven right, or at least close to reality.

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Alot of cryptocurrencies are getting closer to their very strong support.
Yes I know it is still infinity away so it is not closer but ya know what amean right?

Want to knwo the funniest part? All the ICO scammers intentional or not, all the "never give up never surrender" people guess what, it will be just like IPO's in 2000.
They will close, give up quickly, then in interviews they will act the same "Oh boys will be boys" "Yes we got a bit ahead of ourselves" with a large smile on their faces "these things happen" "Oh yes we got alittle too enthusiastic".

I recommend watch 'What Happened' (2001), a documentary about the rise and fall of the largest bubble ever in my opinon.
In particular interviews.

"Never surrender never give up". These people are pure losers. Look at the interviews. They failed so hard and are all smiles and acting like it is no big deal.
Suckers. Some IPO scammers are probably happy they scrapped some crumbs together. The fools never gave up for about 5 days "it's ok it is clealry bottoming".
And those that didn't cut their losses ending up with awesome Helium ballons.

If I fell for such a scam and failed this hard, I would buy a whip and whip myself.
No excuses, no minimising my failure. I would never forgive myself. Only way would be to improve I'd vow my life to becoming the best and NO REDDITION EVER, not just words morons throw around after they watched a rocky movie and feel pumped.

I was right all along. Do not go against common sense and facts.
When our parents told us (or not) to have dreams, they did not mean literally to believe in anything we can possibly imagine.

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Wow. Wow. That escalated quickly.
5 hours after my last update, disabled ape Ran NeuNer on his twitter started posted messages such as this "Oh I guess HODLing crypto's was not the best idea, wupsi dupsy :smileyfaceblushing:".
His account must have gotten hacked?

People must have all heard someone's advice not to listen to idiotic "experts".
He is taking 0 responsibility for his trash advice now. He is laughing about it.

All of crypto is just going to 0, and all the "experts" the 18 yo 'financial genius" Erik Finman the pro top advisers that are really good but somehow need to commute to a job on CNBC for 50k a year, all of them, will just throw it over their shoulder "wupsie" "no biggy", and keep acting as if they know something.
And dumb moronic idiotic pleb will keep listening to them.

You can't make that up.

Deep down inside, the masses are all flat earthers.

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Thomas Lee—who predicted Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018—says the market is wrong about crypto

Thomas Lee—who predicted Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018—says the market is wrong about crypto

Thomas Lee—who predicted Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018—says the market is wrong about crypto

says the market is wrong about crypto

the market is wrong

the market

AAAAAAAAAAAAAH AAAAAAAAH AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

When I mentionned there would be pathetic excuses, I did not mean THAT pathetic.

This is beyond denial. It's like people like this APE and I mean this, try to follow the market cycle and they are not even trying. "Oh right I am supposed to act like I am in denial let's copy paste something OH! 'the market is wrong', sounds good, I'll just say that".

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Denial happening.

Next stop 1000-1800$ capitulation.
Anyone that wants to catch the knife is going to have to sit in front of his PC, it shoulde bounce on 1800$ but if there is heavy selling it can go lower. 30% drop in a 1 hour candle. Then buy lower. Alot of possibilities, but 1800 is the level to watch, then momentum experience decides where to buy exactly 1800, or wait?
(For example if the price drops 20% from 2500 1800 easy bottom, but if that candle happens at 2000 then wait lower, if the price stops at 2000 then drops SLOWLY makes kind of an arc and gets to 1800 with weak bearish momentum... etc...)

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Long boring bagholding. No idea why I expected people to get smarter learn and things to go faster... Dumb as rocks. Here is a little reminder.

2014 bear market:

The price does not have to go all the way to "very strong" support. Watch out for slowing down.

And anyone new is allowed not to know that capitulation does not mean bottom, and does not mean a big bull market follows.
Just a local bottom.

Also in Forex, but far less obvious, way more noise. Still the steps get respected. Probably too complex for crypto bagholders they would call this BS dumb and that does not make sense, as anyone that does not understand something. Alot of noise for their brain to process and filter.

Anytime there is sharp move up followed by a crash followed by months of bagholding I think we can assume this cycle will be followed.

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Oh no! The flavour of the moment cocky new trader that has no idea what he is doing and only cares about beign right - not making money, has decided to start averaging down on Bitcoin and is goign to lose all his money.

WHO COULD POSSIBLY HAVE SEEN THIS COMING? NO ONE!

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Every time the US stock market goes down and bounces it gets called the bottom, the US president urged investors to buy the dip...

Everytime. Everywhere. Everyone. Always. I swear.
For my part I am becoming somewhat of a market cycle expert now and taking advantage of this. Every one always falls for it so...Ye...

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By a rough estimate, we can say that basically denial typically lasts 10% to 33% of complacency. 10% might be an extreme, that is pretty low.
Does not need to be precise, it's more or less always in that area like 1/5 1/3 something like this.

Bitcoin in 2019 will be no exception. Expecting ~$1500-$1800 to be reached before the end of feb.

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Easiest call in my life. Did not even break a sweat. Barely tried.

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Don't mind me, comparing numbers and all.
A new bubble has collapsed: the tech stock bubble.
I posted about it a while ago, but did not really know where to short at the time.
Going to go long on denial or capitulation I guess.
Wondering if I should make a similar idea to this one for tech stocks. Posting quotes from bagholders on stocktwits and all...Same story everytime.
The US president has urged the public to buy the dip and wondered why the prices went down after he gave good news. Pretty funny. #1 bagholder (talking about stocks of course).

Does not always look perfect, but what is sure is eevrything that goes up and is in a bubble, goes down alot.
Sometimes it is quick, sometimes it is slow and painful like gold or bitcoin.

Seriously, we cannot possibly still be in denial at the end of february.
Complacency lasted 9 months, so what would make sense is that denial lasts about 3 months. It started at the start of December right? So ye... Capitulation by March or April would be perfect. And by then, the tech stock bubble will have advanced.

What would really be awesome is if there kept being bubbles one after the other.
Crypto is done? Time for FAANG bubble, followed by idk what, etc. Non stop easiest profit in our lives :p Free money bath like Uncle Scrooge!

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I have a feeling this could take a while, which is good news for me.
If the price drops soon, I will have to use my Forex broker :(
Unless I buy Bitcoin now, send to bitmex, short with low leverage, just to be ready when the price drops...

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Bitcoiners always say "Bitcoin went up in the past hence we will get a new bubble"
Well guess what, each time in the past Bitcoin fell AND STAYED below its trendline.
So here goes...

And also, I think the next one might be the first one to go in the red. The numbers have been going down, next logical continuation is to go lower.

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Dumb cryptoers are almost euphoric but at the same time very nervous, they get triggered so easilly.

$500 is way too high. I have seen enough. These cryptoers would sell their own mother for money. They all try scamming each other, they are dishonest spineless greedy scum.
There is no hope for Bitcoin, I see it going to zero.

For future reference: there is a "crypto fund manager" using his 150K twitter popularity (not that hard for anyone that keeps telling people Bitcoin will go up), selling overpriced "crypto" merchandise (random trinkets with pro crypto anti bank logos). And of course, he only accepts cold hard cash :)

He is not even the worse, or maybe he is, cannot tell anymore.

All hypocrites.

The number of threats and hate message sent to me - sheep hate decent honest people like me - has gone very much up lately, people are more on edge than before.

The price should collapse in the next 3 weeks. can't be too sure with these brainwashed baghodlers holding tight.
But eventually... no choice...

Bitcoin average price since creation is I think about $1500 right now.
Probably it goes below that, and keep falling. For the first time it would go below that price. That would mark its death.

These nervous cryptoers, when they realise they got played with undeniable proof, every one will run for the exits.

Hyprocrites cryptoers are bound to lose everything.

Shèh

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Denial should very soon be over.

This is what I expect to happen. Probably fall more sharply than what I drew.

Will probably stop trading BTC after it bounces, will slow down too much, it is already pretty boring. I might find some day trades from time to time, not sure it is worth it spending alot of time to scan the chart every day if it never moves...
That will probably be the end of me posting about Bitcoin for a while, I might make some posts to roast the bagholders that will continuously spam that Bitcoin bottomed and try convincing people to buy.

I look forward to beeing proven right again, and therefore being right all along, and ending this idea. Or maybe I should continue updating anyway, but maybe just the really major things one a quarter basis or yearly?

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Very possible outcome:

Note

Not going to post this until these moronic vastly ignorant crypto baggies quit.
Not that they would believe me and it would make a difference.
I would very much like it if they ended up selling in this area.

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I think after Bitcoin bottoms around 2021, price will bottom for a good year, a clear accumulation, the idiots that thought 6000 & 3000 was accumulation, now that it REALLY is happening will not trust it anymore (sigh), and then Bitcoin will bubble n°4.

Bubble n°4 might top at 13000$
Ye it's probably going to be like this.

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Commented about April bull trap in this idea where I explain how I want to trade this denial I see several long trades actually and a buy and hold till >6k, also as an update I talk about the bigger picture:

Crypto activity dropping, no opportunities for a while

In particular, I have this view of the next 10-20 years. I already posted this many times so might be repeating myself.

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According to bitgur, on the CME:
60% of funds are short
55% of others (big reportable trades) are short
17% of small (small unprofessional retail traders) are short

Pretty much sums it all up

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19 December. That was nearly 5 months ago.
It took so long. I am just a big whiner. It is not that long.
Denial is at its peak, which fits perfectly with price action.
Bears panic closed their positions because of some indicator.
Bears changed their mind as the price broke 6000 because?
And bulls are celebrating.
News are as bad as they could be, totally ignored.
The fundamentals "decentralized" and all that stuff have been thrown out of the window, doesn't matter because "reasons".

Criminals involved are in their last stand and anything could happen.
Would be interesting, I would like to see this. Otherwise, this:

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I don't know when the cycle will end, but probably not yet.

Let's keep repeating this ridiculous pattern till 3 digits :p

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The pump has ended.
We have now seen a textbook bull trap.
And of course, the top was/will be higher than I first thought.
They taught us "Do not trade these corrections wait for C to end and get back on the trend when it resumes" so I did well to wait, but I did short a bit just so I could say i did in the future. Got some BTC on the Bitmex exchange which is shorted 1:1. I shorted a little more at first then closed.

The big rally stopped but it could resume. I want to see several days with no new highs I want the momentum to really slow.

The sheep is beyond euphoric, absolutely hysterical.
People selling services so "professional" are making masturbating jokes.
They completely lost it. Reminds me when a country wins their first soccer world cup and people start crying and say things like "we can die now". Pissing themselves because some other men won a game while they were sitting and watching.

People really love to be part of a herd, can't help it.

I am getting absolutely harassed by raging bulls that are unable to zoom out (that is unless it fits their bias), people only look at YTD returns (I think some of them know what they are doing).

Bitcoin went from 3k to 7.5k as I expected, had 2 scenarios 1 was keep going down then bull market but it was overly bullish, the most bearish scenario which was a correction up to 6000 or more, is what happened.

This C wave is violent and scares every one on the short side, and gets everyone super euphoric on the bull side.

2 choices now:
1- This is a flat ABC
Example:

What it could look like on BTC

2- This is a zigzag

The herd sentiment is truly overwhelmingly in favor of the end of the bear market which is what is to be expected. Complete euphoria. I keep being reminded how wrong I am and how stupid I will look soon.
At least this idea is hidden from all these people.

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The ponzi scheme pump correction should soon be over. At most it *should* end by July.

8400 good top, but even better if it goes to 8600 something, especially for short selling it.

Crypto bulls are euphoric and obnoxious, insuferable.
Of course the bear market is now 100% confirmed to be over.
They are foaming at the mouth.
May we never forget this.

"How could they let this happen"
"Wall street cheat sheet..."
"I know. But are you honestly comparing a ponzi scheme to stocks? Sorry but you have no idea what you are talking about (remember: they are the ones falling for a ponzi scheme and I am the one seing it happen profiting from it and telling everyone at the same time), this is very different. Companies can fail it is part of the game, but what they are doing is not illegal. This was a complete ponzi scheme and they knew it. Yet, they did nothing to stop it."
Bonus: This is why I am voting for /Joseph/ /Hitler/.

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U.S. Copyright Office recognize Wright as the author – under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto – of both the white paper and code. He is granted US copyright registrations for Bitcoin white paper and code.
Bitcoin is legally BSV. Bitcoin core is a spin off just like BCH.

Bitcoin Core is a shitcoin created a few years after Bitcoin. Officially.

I cannot tell if Bitcoin Core already hit the top or if it will go a little further to 8600 or high? 9200? 9600? So I am scaling in... Not as great but well.

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Bitcoin loves christmas, but evil Tether wants to ruin it.

Let's have a merry christmas in June Ho Ho Ho!

Note

Forgot this tree. December 2018.

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Euphoria...
Most volume happens on Bitmex and funding is crazy high for longs.
Every one bought.
I think the top is in.
Expecting complacency next.
Will take profit at targets and re-enter on retraces.
Rince and repeat.

IF this is a winner, this is how I will babysit this trade:

If it is a loser well whatever.

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10k top 42% odds
12k top 42% odds
20k top 10% odds

Amazing ponzi scheme.

The spam box 3. The HODL mentality will be their downfall.

Which one could it be?

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This is the most likely for Bitcoin :)

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Dumb money is cheering one last time.
This stupid bubble is over.
Idiots won't be cocky and cheer much longer, a few months at most.

Daily crypto hate: Cyclical market cycles. A bull within a bear?

Bitcoin. Ponzi's over. Trust me. RIP Hodlers.

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Maybe this starts shaping up in the next few months and I can make my long term view more precise...

It can hug with line for a while before falling thought...

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2020 could be the year.

Could go to 30k, could top anywhere between that and 11k and then also slowly but surely go down, something like this:

Or this:

But it could also... I think this is what will happen. Personal opinion.

MrRenev

Also on:

Related publications

Bitcoin - What's going to happen in the next couple of months

by MrRenev

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