Bitcoin crash?
Recession prediction:
The first predicted bottom would likely be at the 30k range. The price may in the weeks to come go through this support line but in an evidential recession would the first likely bottom be at 30k. This bottom would likely be formed after the war in Ukraine as more people are selling Bitcoin in exchange for Hryvnia or Rubel.
The second likely bottom would be predicted to be 20k as the past support/resistance zone is at this level. This second level is likely caused by the FED federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm increasing the interest rate and pulling back on the free money given by the pandemic.
The third bottom and the absolute bottom may be seen at 10k range, as this is similar to the 85% decrease in Bitcoin price seen in the 2018 Bitcoin crash. This bottom is likely caused by the supply chain issues, the higher interest rate as well as the energy prices rising. Energy prices tend to be rising (seen in a graph created from bloombergquint.com/markets/history-suggests-oil-shock-raises-probability-of-u-s-recession ) which tells us that high energy prices are correlated to recession.
On Chain data:
There may be strong indications to trade Bitcoin in the short term but in the long term would the fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest the different as the Exchange netflow is negative (see in chart below) and this would predict that traders are send Bitcoin to cold storages to proof for a predicted recession. People then believe in Bitcoin long term but in the short term is their Bitcoin safer in a cold storage.
In the case of the Bitcoin miners are they not mining Bitcoin and they are also waiting on a more profitable position to mine Bitcoin. This can be seen in the Miners Reserve Chart and this decrease in mining is caused by the energy prices rising.
paste.pics/c39b0d6d91dcd072e9b76defa0bfb244
paste.pics/4592efb43e7277a1a84a519f1038d99b
paste.pics/7b3aa7fa2a0aa57456818444ce011b33
The first predicted bottom would likely be at the 30k range. The price may in the weeks to come go through this support line but in an evidential recession would the first likely bottom be at 30k. This bottom would likely be formed after the war in Ukraine as more people are selling Bitcoin in exchange for Hryvnia or Rubel.
The second likely bottom would be predicted to be 20k as the past support/resistance zone is at this level. This second level is likely caused by the FED federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm increasing the interest rate and pulling back on the free money given by the pandemic.
The third bottom and the absolute bottom may be seen at 10k range, as this is similar to the 85% decrease in Bitcoin price seen in the 2018 Bitcoin crash. This bottom is likely caused by the supply chain issues, the higher interest rate as well as the energy prices rising. Energy prices tend to be rising (seen in a graph created from bloombergquint.com/markets/history-suggests-oil-shock-raises-probability-of-u-s-recession ) which tells us that high energy prices are correlated to recession.
On Chain data:
There may be strong indications to trade Bitcoin in the short term but in the long term would the fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest the different as the Exchange netflow is negative (see in chart below) and this would predict that traders are send Bitcoin to cold storages to proof for a predicted recession. People then believe in Bitcoin long term but in the short term is their Bitcoin safer in a cold storage.
In the case of the Bitcoin miners are they not mining Bitcoin and they are also waiting on a more profitable position to mine Bitcoin. This can be seen in the Miners Reserve Chart and this decrease in mining is caused by the energy prices rising.
paste.pics/c39b0d6d91dcd072e9b76defa0bfb244
paste.pics/4592efb43e7277a1a84a519f1038d99b
paste.pics/7b3aa7fa2a0aa57456818444ce011b33
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