Ready To Call A Reversal? (Bitcoin + TOTAL)
Updated
Not quite. As I mentioned in my recent videos, the buyer volume off the recent low during the Ukraine invasion dump was promising. People have been shorting for weeks, so it's about time those people start to get liquidated. There also appears to be organic buying, as funding for futures has largely remained negative. Speculative traders and gamblers have left, and those who remain are still biased to the downside. Regardless, the market tends to head towards areas of maximum uncertainty before trend continuation. Where would that be for both bulls and bears? Honestly, it could be even higher than current prices - back to $51-52k. In that case, bears would probably get nervous that price may continue higher to a new ATH. At that price, bulls would also get nervous, as it would get closer to the recent top and they would fear a pullback. It's interesting how these psychological dynamics work in the market. On the other hand, prices can easily top out here. Bitcoin is finally testing the 100 day MA (yellow). For the market to look bullish, I would like to see Bitcoin break above the yellow MA and test it as support. This happens quite often when Bitcoin is beginning a bullish trend. Another positive development is that Bitcoin is breaking out of a large downtrend. However, every downtrend break since the top has been retraced entirely. I'm looking for a possible bearish divergence on the UO (red at bottom) for signs of a failed high.
We also have some very interesting and quite volatile moves in the markets today. Metals are largely up, and so is the dollar. Let's look at Silver, which appears to be confirming a MACRO higher low on the monthly. It should aim for at least a test of the long term resistance level at $49 an ounce.
What's with metals, crypto, and DXY all moving up together? I mean, DXY looks like it's ready to go parabolic.
SPX has been rejected at historical resistance against M2 money supply, which is huge - considering the FED is supposedly raising interest rates and reducing asset purchases. They're in a crunch. If they decide NOT to raise interest rates, the US will likely see hyperinflation, which would be good for crypto. Perhaps what we're seeing is investors pricing in every possible scenario. If you've been following me, I've used this chart before to anticipate when it might be better to increase cash positions.
It could also be because the dollar is also seen as a "safe haven" asset. But then why is crypto moving up? Optimistically, perhaps crypto is finally given a chance to shine amidst economic restrictions and crises occurring in Russia and Ukraine. Is the power of crypto finally being noticed? Maybe those who don't "need" Bitcoin have simply left the market, to be replaced by long term believers and those who need it. This is may be the sign of a bottom. There also appears to be low engagement with posts on TradingView, which often happens during extended market downturns.
Bitcoin is losing its momentum against other assets. This is important to note, as big players will be paying attention.
And if this is the case, what happens if Amazon (AMZN) confirms this broken long term uptrend as resistance?
In any case, here are some more crypto technicals. Yes, there's a lot to digest here. On the righthand chart above is the monthly for the TOTAL crypto market cap. It doesn't look particularly good, unless March can close above that important 9 EMA (orange), and unless it avoids increasing downside momentum as shown on the MACD below. What's interesting amidst all of this is that ETH, which has driven much of the speculative hype over the last year, is resting on major support against Bitcoin, and seems to be aiming for a breakdown if this area is lost.
Zoomed out, you can see how important that lower light blue trendline is for ETH. A breakdown from that could signal some pretty devastating weakness for the altcoin market.
Bitcoin dominance seems to be resuming strength on the weekly as well.
Regardless of what Bitcoin does, I think it can head back towards 50% at minimum. If dominance makes a new low, that would also be a top signal.
What about my own plan? In an aggressively defensive mood, I have shifted the remainder of my ETH to Bitcoin near 0.07, and a little bit more Litecoin (why do I hate myself so much? lol). I have also added some Silver to my portfolio, in addition to my Uranium and Weed stocks. Weed might not see any sunshine for a while, but I think it's worth having as a momentum play in case some major legislature gets passed. Although the market may continue up, I feel best allocated for feeling like I can comfortably pay down my student debt if needed, and take a break before I begin working post-graduation. This is my personal situation. If I see ridiculously low prices, I might rebuy some, but overall I feel comfortably allocated.
Speaking of Litecoin, what about Litecoin?? I mean, seriously. Extremely poor performance against many other cryptos with less liquidity and network stability. Perhaps the market simply does not care about it, but there still seems to be some significant accumulation. Litecoin bounced off a massive trendline on Bitfinex, dating back to 2015. Litecoin can simply move sideways for 2 more months while the market sorts itself, and remain above that trendline. A break below the trendline would probably signify some long term weakness.
Looking at the rest of my former portfolio from the last cycle, as well as some other individual projects:
I also still hold some NANO, though I sold some off in the $3 range. There is no sign of a trend change, so it can perhaps head back to 2019-2020 accumulation levels, near $1. I pretty much only still hold some because I like the project. Not even treating it as an investment at this point.
XLM has held multi-year support in the $0.16-0.18 range, though I did reduce my position by half recently, citing weekly and monthly weakness. Even now, it's just barely hanging onto the 200 week MA, though if the market continues to bounce I can see a push towards the red 50 week MA, above $0.30.
I still love the NEO project, but it's struggling to even get back above the 200 week MA. We can see a push towards $30-45 if the market continues to bounce here.
Otherwise, 2020 lows are possible.
I sold off the rest of my VET near 6 cents. It looks incredibly weak on the weekly chart, though we can see a push all the way back above 10 cents should the market regain some serious momentum. Otherwise, this cycle is looking like a failed high for VET, since it is unable to sustain above the all time high from 2018.
ADA also looks ridiculously weak on the weekly, unable to reclaim even $1 on this push. It can easily head back to the 200 week MA, near $0.50 if the market gets rejected here.
For a lot of alts, today's weekly candle just looks like a small blip in an unrelenting downtrend. We haven't truly seen altcoin capitulation, per se. Overall, even if the market continues to bounce, I think it's likely to lead to a failed high, and larger players will begin to unload. This is my current thesis, but open to change my views as conditions evolve. Analyzing the market helps understand why things happen, but it does not predict. Nothing is for certain.
TL:DR: Things can go up or down. In the short term, perhaps the bias is slightly up. Longer term, uncertainty rules the markets and I'm a bit biased to the downside.
In keeping with that, none of this is meant to be financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. This has been a long post, but it's been a while. Thank you for reading!
-Victor Cobra
We also have some very interesting and quite volatile moves in the markets today. Metals are largely up, and so is the dollar. Let's look at Silver, which appears to be confirming a MACRO higher low on the monthly. It should aim for at least a test of the long term resistance level at $49 an ounce.
What's with metals, crypto, and DXY all moving up together? I mean, DXY looks like it's ready to go parabolic.
SPX has been rejected at historical resistance against M2 money supply, which is huge - considering the FED is supposedly raising interest rates and reducing asset purchases. They're in a crunch. If they decide NOT to raise interest rates, the US will likely see hyperinflation, which would be good for crypto. Perhaps what we're seeing is investors pricing in every possible scenario. If you've been following me, I've used this chart before to anticipate when it might be better to increase cash positions.
It could also be because the dollar is also seen as a "safe haven" asset. But then why is crypto moving up? Optimistically, perhaps crypto is finally given a chance to shine amidst economic restrictions and crises occurring in Russia and Ukraine. Is the power of crypto finally being noticed? Maybe those who don't "need" Bitcoin have simply left the market, to be replaced by long term believers and those who need it. This is may be the sign of a bottom. There also appears to be low engagement with posts on TradingView, which often happens during extended market downturns.
Bitcoin is losing its momentum against other assets. This is important to note, as big players will be paying attention.
And if this is the case, what happens if Amazon (AMZN) confirms this broken long term uptrend as resistance?
In any case, here are some more crypto technicals. Yes, there's a lot to digest here. On the righthand chart above is the monthly for the TOTAL crypto market cap. It doesn't look particularly good, unless March can close above that important 9 EMA (orange), and unless it avoids increasing downside momentum as shown on the MACD below. What's interesting amidst all of this is that ETH, which has driven much of the speculative hype over the last year, is resting on major support against Bitcoin, and seems to be aiming for a breakdown if this area is lost.
Zoomed out, you can see how important that lower light blue trendline is for ETH. A breakdown from that could signal some pretty devastating weakness for the altcoin market.
Bitcoin dominance seems to be resuming strength on the weekly as well.
Regardless of what Bitcoin does, I think it can head back towards 50% at minimum. If dominance makes a new low, that would also be a top signal.
What about my own plan? In an aggressively defensive mood, I have shifted the remainder of my ETH to Bitcoin near 0.07, and a little bit more Litecoin (why do I hate myself so much? lol). I have also added some Silver to my portfolio, in addition to my Uranium and Weed stocks. Weed might not see any sunshine for a while, but I think it's worth having as a momentum play in case some major legislature gets passed. Although the market may continue up, I feel best allocated for feeling like I can comfortably pay down my student debt if needed, and take a break before I begin working post-graduation. This is my personal situation. If I see ridiculously low prices, I might rebuy some, but overall I feel comfortably allocated.
Speaking of Litecoin, what about Litecoin?? I mean, seriously. Extremely poor performance against many other cryptos with less liquidity and network stability. Perhaps the market simply does not care about it, but there still seems to be some significant accumulation. Litecoin bounced off a massive trendline on Bitfinex, dating back to 2015. Litecoin can simply move sideways for 2 more months while the market sorts itself, and remain above that trendline. A break below the trendline would probably signify some long term weakness.
Looking at the rest of my former portfolio from the last cycle, as well as some other individual projects:
I also still hold some NANO, though I sold some off in the $3 range. There is no sign of a trend change, so it can perhaps head back to 2019-2020 accumulation levels, near $1. I pretty much only still hold some because I like the project. Not even treating it as an investment at this point.
XLM has held multi-year support in the $0.16-0.18 range, though I did reduce my position by half recently, citing weekly and monthly weakness. Even now, it's just barely hanging onto the 200 week MA, though if the market continues to bounce I can see a push towards the red 50 week MA, above $0.30.
I still love the NEO project, but it's struggling to even get back above the 200 week MA. We can see a push towards $30-45 if the market continues to bounce here.
I sold off the rest of my VET near 6 cents. It looks incredibly weak on the weekly chart, though we can see a push all the way back above 10 cents should the market regain some serious momentum. Otherwise, this cycle is looking like a failed high for VET, since it is unable to sustain above the all time high from 2018.
ADA also looks ridiculously weak on the weekly, unable to reclaim even $1 on this push. It can easily head back to the 200 week MA, near $0.50 if the market gets rejected here.
For a lot of alts, today's weekly candle just looks like a small blip in an unrelenting downtrend. We haven't truly seen altcoin capitulation, per se. Overall, even if the market continues to bounce, I think it's likely to lead to a failed high, and larger players will begin to unload. This is my current thesis, but open to change my views as conditions evolve. Analyzing the market helps understand why things happen, but it does not predict. Nothing is for certain.
TL:DR: Things can go up or down. In the short term, perhaps the bias is slightly up. Longer term, uncertainty rules the markets and I'm a bit biased to the downside.
In keeping with that, none of this is meant to be financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. This has been a long post, but it's been a while. Thank you for reading!
-Victor Cobra
Note
3rd rejection at the 9 week EMA for ETH. Note
Hard to tell short term direction here, but I think it's possible Bitcoin will test the 40-41k area after the weekly close and get rejected. Everything looks extremely weak, so I'm aiming for a rejection and breakdown. This all depends on DXY and global markets though. 
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.